Red Flag Warning 40, NWS Dodge City, KS

Barber County, KS, Clark County, KS, Comanche County, KS, Edwards County, KS, Ellis County, KS, Finney County, KS, Ford County, KS, Grant County, KS, Gray County, KS, Hamilton County, KS, Haskell County, KS, Hodgeman County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Kiowa County, KS, Lane County, KS, Meade County, KS, Morton County, KS, Ness County, KS, Pawnee County, KS, Pratt County, KS, Rush County, KS, Scott County, KS, Seward County, KS, Stafford County, KS, Stanton County, KS, Stevens County, KS, Trego County, KS

037 
WWUS83 KDDC 230405
RFWDDC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1105 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2022

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-240200-
/O.CON.KDDC.FW.W.0040.221023T1500Z-221024T0200Z/
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
1105 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2022 /1005 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM CDT
SUNDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
030, 031, 043, 044, 045, 046, 061, 062, 063, 064, 065, 066, 074,
075, 076, 077, 078, 079, 080, 081, 084, 085, 086, 087, 088, 089,
AND 090...

* AFFECTED AREA...In Kansas, Fire Weather Zone 030 Trego, Fire 
  Weather Zone 031 Ellis, Fire Weather Zone 043 Scott, Fire 
  Weather Zone 044 Lane, Fire Weather Zone 045 Ness, Fire 
  Weather Zone 046 Rush, Fire Weather Zone 061 Hamilton, Fire 
  Weather Zone 062 Kearny, Fire Weather Zone 063 Finney, Fire 
  Weather Zone 064 Hodgeman, Fire Weather Zone 065 Pawnee, Fire 
  Weather Zone 066 Stafford, Fire Weather Zone 074 Stanton, Fire 
  Weather Zone 075 Grant, Fire Weather Zone 076 Haskell, Fire 
  Weather Zone 077 Gray, Fire Weather Zone 078 Ford, Fire 
  Weather Zone 079 Edwards, Fire Weather Zone 080 Kiowa, Fire 
  Weather Zone 081 Pratt, Fire Weather Zone 084 Morton, Fire 
  Weather Zone 085 Stevens, Fire Weather Zone 086 Seward, Fire 
  Weather Zone 087 Meade, Fire Weather Zone 088 Clark, Fire 
  Weather Zone 089 Comanche and Fire Weather Zone 090 Barber.

* WINDS...Southwest 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...As low as 15 percent.

* HIGHEST THREAT...is located for areas along and west of 
  highway 283. These areas will have the strongest winds and 
  lowest humidity values during the afternoon.

* IMPACTS...any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

For more information from NOAA/National weather service visit...
http://weather.gov/ddc

647 
WWUS83 KDDC 240148
RFWDDC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
848 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022


KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-240300-
/O.EXP.KDDC.FW.W.0040.000000T0000Z-221024T0200Z/
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
848 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022 /748 PM MDT Sun Oct 23 2022/

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 030, 031, 043,
044, 045, 046, 061, 062, 063, 064, 065, 066, 074, 075, 076, 077,
078, 079, 080, 081, 084, 085, 086, 087, 088, 089, AND 090...



$$

For more information from NOAA/National weather service visit...
http://weather.gov/ddc

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1100 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2022

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2022

The overnight water vapor loop and RAP analysis were showing the
advertised storm system digging southeast across the Pacific
Northwest region. Mid and upper tropospheric winds will continue to
increase across the Rockies, allowing the surface leeside trough to
further deepen through tonight and especially into Sunday.

Not much has changed in the going forecast for both today and
Sunday. Confidence continues to increase in a High Wind event across
much of west central and southwest Kansas Sunday. Ahead of Sunday's
High Wind day, today will be rather pleasant with fairly light
westerly/southwesterly wind, at least through early afternoon. Wind
speed will pick up to around 15 mph as mixing deepens, particularly
across far southwest Kansas. Widespread afternoon temperatures in
the upper 80s to around 90F will once again occur. As a reminder,
record highs for today for DDC (Dodge City Airport), GCK (Garden
City Airport), and P28 (Medicine Lodge Airport) are 88, 87, and 92F
respectively.

Southwest winds will prevail through the night tonight at 10 to 20
mph, and this will keep the boundary layer mixed enough to prevent
early Sunday morning temperatures from dropping much below 55-60F.
On Sunday, once mixing due to insolation commences, southwest winds
will ramp up quickly...especially across far southwest Kansas
initially. The deterministic GFS typically performs quite well in
High Wind events throughout the depth of the troposphere, and the
GFS is showing 50+ knot winds well into the mixed layer across west
central and southwest Kansas along/west of Highway 283 from late
morning through late afternoon. Because of this, we have gone ahead
with a High Wind Watch for increased confidence in 50-kt (58-mph)
gusts. Gusts in excess of 50 mph will create areas of blowing dust,
and the blowing dust may become fairly widespread (4 miles or less
visibility) during the afternoon. Visibility will likely change
rapidly around agricultural fields, making travel quite challenging.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2022

Following Sunday's High Wind event, the storm system responsible for
the high winds will split apart with the northern portion impacting
the Northern Plains and the southern portion of the storm developing
into a new upper low well to the south across West Texas into the
Red River valley late Monday into Tuesday. Large scale rain and
thunderstorms within the the leading warm conveyor belt air stream
of the southern storm component will develop across Northwest Texas
into western Oklahoma late Sunday Night, which will advance
northeast across the remainder of Oklahoma into south central and
eastern Kansas through Monday. Highest POPs across the DDC forecast
area will be confined to areas of south central Kansas, south and
east of an Ashland to Saint John line. By Monday Night, the warm
conveyor air stream will be east of south central Kansas, and the
developing "comma head" precipitation shield will develop even
farther south than what we were thinking yesterday, based on the
latest global deterministic and ensemble mean solutions.

Quiet weather will prevail in the wake of the storm system Tuesday
into Wednesday, and the airmass behind the storm will not be all
that cold, such that the coldest morning (Tuesday morning) will only
be in the lower to mid 30s for lows most locations. Tuesday and
Wednesday afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 60s, perhaps
near 70F. Another upper low will likely develop across the Rockies,
coming in from the northwest on Thursday. The Thursday Night time
frame will be the best chance for rain across our forecast area with
this storm system, but this low will be smaller in scale and moving
fairly quickly to the east-southeast through Friday, so a
significant precipitation event with this storm system is not
expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday)
Issued at 1111 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2022

A quiet aviation period will prevail for the rest of today. Light SW
to NW winds will continue around 10 kt. A strong weather system will
approach the region through the overnight hours. First, LLWS is expected
across the terminals in the morning as a LLJ intensifies. A low pressure
center will continue to deepen Sunday. As a result, very strong S/SW
25-35 kt winds are expected for much of the day with gusts to 50 kts
possible. BLDU will also be possible with a reduction of vis.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  59  88  48 /   0   0  10  10
GCK  85  55  84  44 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  85  58  80  45 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  87  58  85  46 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  88  53  90  47 /   0   0  10  10
P28  88  60  88  54 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>080-084>089.

High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
KSZ043>045-061>064-074>078-084>087.

&&

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Sugden

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
454 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2022

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-231000-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
454 AM CDT Sat Oct 22 2022 /354 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

High winds are forecast to develop Sunday afternoon ahead of an
intense storm system. Southwest winds of 30 to 40 mph are likely
to occur from late morning through the late afternoon hours. Wind
gusts in the 55 to 60 mph range are also expected, which will
promote the development of blowing dust. Visibility will likely
fall to below a mile in vicinity of some agricultural fields which
have recently been tilled and drilled for winter wheat. Widely
variable visibility in blowing dust will lead to dangerous travel
conditions across open areas. The high winds and low relative
humidity of 15 to 25 percent will lead to dangerous fire weather
conditions as well. Any open flame or spark could lead to an out
of control wildfire in these conditions!

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.