Red Flag Warning 37, NWS Dodge City, KS

401 
WWUS83 KDDC 010046
RFWDDC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
746 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022


KSZ061>063-074>076-084>086-010200-
/O.EXP.KDDC.FW.W.0037.000000T0000Z-221001T0100Z/
Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Morton-Stevens-
Seward-
746 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022 /646 PM MDT Fri Sep 30 2022/

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 061, 062, 063,
074, 075, 076, 084, 085, AND 086...

Temperatures across western KS are cooling with the loss of
daytime heating, and as a result relative humidity is increasing.
Therefore, Red Flag criteria are no longer being met, and the Red
Flag Warning will be allowed to expire at 8 PM CDT.

$$

For more information from NOAA/National weather service visit...
http://weather.gov/ddc

Springer

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
209 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022

...Updated Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022

05Z observations are showing a trough of low pressure in eastern
Colorado leading to the continued breezy south to southeast winds
across the region and keeping temperatures in the 60s. The mixed
boundary layer should keep the overnight lows tonight a little
warmer than the lows we've had over the previous nights. In the
upper levels a weak ridge is in place over the central plains and
a large low pressure system and trough is moving into the northern
Rockies.

For today the main weather story will be the elevated fire risk
and potential red flag conditions. Surface winds will turn to the
southwest as the surface low moves into northwest Kansas. This
will usher in drier air and relative humidity values will fall to
around 15% for areas along and west of highway 83. Winds out of
the south to southwest at 15-30 mph will help to usher in warmer
air as well with 850 mb temperatures warming to 21-25 (C). What
may keep our afternoon highs down a degree or two from the warmest
ensemble forecast is the fact that a weak 700 mb shortwave will
bring in mid and high level cloudiness that could dampen some of
the diurnal heating in the afternoon. We should expect highs to
range from the mid 80s in the east to around 90 in the west.

Tonight should be another mild night as there will be mid to high
level clouds passing through and winds will stay breezy out of the
south at around 10-20 mph. With the cloud cover and well mixed
boundary layer overnight lows will fall back into the upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022

Main message of the long term is the weekend will be warm and dry.
Next week we should have cooler temperatures with the possibility
of rain mainly on Tuesday.

Saturday and Sunday the upper level ridge and area of high
pressure should hang in place through the central plains. With a
trough of low pressure in eastern Colorado this should continue
the breezy south winds and allow temperatures to reach into the
middle 80s.

For early next week the upper level trough in the northern Rockies
will move into the northern plains and this should allow cooler
air to move into the central plains. The leading edge of the cold
front will move into Kansas during the day on Tuesday.
Deterministic models are showing increased cloud cover and
rainshowers developing with the frontal passage and the 700 mb
shortwave entering into central Kansas by Tuesday evening. Models
are keep the rainfall totals fairly light so this won't make much
of a dent in the drought.

The upper level trough will be a slow mover so the cooler air will
stay in place through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2022

VFR flight conditions for all airport terminals during this TAF
cycle. There will be mid and high level clouds for much of
southwest Kansas during the day on Friday. Winds will also stay
breezy through the time period as winds will be 15-25 kts with
higher gusts. The highest wind speeds will be between 15Z-00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  88  56  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  88  55  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  87  57  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  89  57  88  53 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  86  55  86  51 /  10   0   0   0
P28  84  55  86  50 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
evening for KSZ043-061>063-074>076-084>086.

&&

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Tatro