Red Flag Warning 24, NWS Dodge City, KS

206 
WWUS83 KDDC 221741
RFWDDC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1241 PM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022


KSZ061-074-084-231330-
/O.NEW.KDDC.FW.A.0018.220423T1700Z-220424T0200Z/
/O.CON.KDDC.FW.W.0024.000000T0000Z-220423T0200Z/
Hamilton-Stanton-Morton-
1241 PM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022 /1141 AM MDT Fri Apr 22 2022/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/
THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 061...074 AND 084...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 061...074 AND 084...

The National Weather Service in Dodge City has issued a Fire
Weather Watch For wind and low relative humidity, which is in
effect from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening.

* Affected Area...In Kansas...Fire Weather Zone 061 Hamilton... 
  Fire Weather Zone 074 Stanton and Fire Weather Zone 084 Morton.

* Winds...Southwest 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 60 mph for
  Friday afternoon. Winds southwest 25-35 mph with gusts to 40 
  mph for Saturday.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 15 percent for Friday afternoon.
  As low as 9 percent for Saturday afternoon.

* Impacts...Any fires that start will have extreme fire behavior 
  and spread rapidly. Outdoor burning is not advised.

* Thunderstorms along a dry line are forecast to develop Friday 
  evening and with the dry fuels, little rainfall, and lightning 
  there could be fires started from the storms.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

KSZ030-031-043>046-062>066-075>081-085>090-231330-
/O.NEW.KDDC.FW.A.0018.220423T1700Z-220424T0200Z/
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-Pawnee-
Stafford-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-Pratt-Stevens-
Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
1241 PM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 030...031...043...044...045...046...062...063...
064...065...066...075...076...077...078...079...080...081...085...
086...087...088...089 AND 090...

The National Weather Service in Dodge City has issued a Fire
Weather Watch For wind and low relative humidity, which is in
effect from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening.

* Affected Area...In Kansas...Fire Weather Zone 030 Trego...Fire 
  Weather Zone 031 Ellis...Fire Weather Zone 043 Scott...Fire 
  Weather Zone 044 Lane...Fire Weather Zone 045 Ness...Fire 
  Weather Zone 046 Rush...Fire Weather Zone 062 Kearny...Fire 
  Weather Zone 063 Finney...Fire Weather Zone 064 Hodgeman...
  Fire Weather Zone 065 Pawnee...Fire Weather Zone 066 
  Stafford...Fire Weather Zone 075 Grant...Fire Weather Zone 076 
  Haskell...Fire Weather Zone 077 Gray...Fire Weather Zone 078 
  Ford...Fire Weather Zone 079 Edwards...Fire Weather Zone 080 
  Kiowa...Fire Weather Zone 081 Pratt...Fire Weather Zone 085 
  Stevens...Fire Weather Zone 086 Seward...Fire Weather Zone 087 
  Meade...Fire Weather Zone 088 Clark...Fire Weather Zone 089 
  Comanche and Fire Weather Zone 090 Barber.

* Winds...Southwest 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 10 percent.

* Impacts...Any fires that start will have extreme fire behavior 
  and spread rapidly. Outdoor burning is not advised.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
Red Flag Warnings.

&&

$$

For more information from NOAA/National weather service visit...
http://weather.gov/ddc

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
230 AM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022

...Updated Short Term, Long Term and Fire Discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022

At 07z Friday...gusty southeast winds and dew points in the 60s
were spreading across southwest Kansas as a dryline retrograded
towards southeast Colorado. Models remain in good agreement with
this dryline stalling out during the day near the Colorado border.
East of this dryline a gusty south wind will develop by late
morning as strong winds in the boundary layer mix down to the
surface. Winds today will range from 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to
65 mph being possible at times late today and early this evening.
The deep mixing will lower dew point some this afternoon but
based on the moisture already spreading across southwest Kansas as
of 07z Friday do not expect to have relative humidity values
falling much lower 15 to 20 percent. The lowest humidity values
late today will be in parts of Morton, Stanton and Hamilton
counties given the proximity to the dryline. Will therefore issue
a red flag warning for these two counties for today.

A high wind warning also in effect today and early tonight given
these expected strong winds developing early today. These strong
winds will likely produce areas of blowing dust which may reduce
the visibility to one mile or less at times.

Dew Points around 60 near the dryline late today will aid in
thunderstorm development after 5pm as afternoon temperatures climb
into the lower 90s. Models earlier today are still in decent
agreement with warm 700mb temperatures (+10C) being present late
day/early evening across southwest Kansas. Even with these warm
temperatures several CAM earlier this morning do suggest that
scattered storms will be possible given the low level lapse rates
and forecast low level moisture. Much like earlier this
evening...if storms do develop late day the the potential for
baseball size hail or larger along with strong damaging winds will
be the main hazards. With an increasing low level shear forecast
in the evening due to a 60knot low level jet and dew points in the
60s a few tornadoes will also be possible. At this time the best
chance for severe storms early tonight will be west of highway 283
based on the forecast instability axis. These storms are forecast
to march eastward towards central Kansas through midnight but as
these storms move east the severe potential appears to decrease.

Another opportunity for convection appears to develop after
midnight as an upper level low/trough crosses eastern Colorado.
Cooling mid level temperatures and enhanced moisture convergence
is forecast to develop ahead of this upper level system along the
dryline. As the upper level trough begins to cross western Kansas
overnight the dryline will surge east and with it the area of
convection is also expected to spread east across all of western
Kansas. 0-6km shear will be more parallel to the boundary
overnight and given the strong winds in the boundary layer the
primary hazard from these storms will be high winds.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022

On Saturday an upper level low/trough will lift northeast from
western Kansas into Nebraska and any lingering precipitation
early Saturday morning that may be occurring across south central
Kansas is expected to end by mid day. A cold front is forecast to
cross southwest Kansas during the afternoon and as this cold front
passes the gusty southwest winds will shift to the northwest. A
period of gusty northwest wind can be expected behind this cold
front late Saturday and Saturday evening but these gusty winds
will decrease overnight as a cold dome of high pressure at the
surface begins to build into the West Central High Plains. These
gusty winds will usher in some cooler air into portions of
southwest Kansas during the day with highs on Saturday ranging
from 70 to 75 degrees north of the cold front to the mid to upper
80s south of this cold front

Cooler temperatures will briefly return Sunday and Monday as this
area of high pressure at the surface crosses western Kansas.
Highs in the 60s during the day can be expected with overnight
lows falling back into the 30s. A few locations early Monday
morning could even have temperatures bottom out around 32 degrees,
mainly west and north of the Garden City area.

Following this brief cool down a warming trend can be expected
across southwest Kansas as an upper level ridge builds across the
Rockies and out into the Western High Plains. Based on the warming
trend in the 850mb temperatures from 00z to 00z each day from
Tuesday through Thursday this afternoon highs are expected to
climb back into the 80s by Wednesday. Highs may even climb into
the lower 90s in a few locations on Thursday before our next cold
front crosses southwest Kansas and cools temperatures back to more
seasonal readings on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022

BUFR soundings continue to show south winds at 50 to near 55
knots around the 2000ft AGL level overnight. These strong winds
will mix down to the surface between 18z and 21z Friday based on
the mixed layer depth forecast from the latest BUFR soundings.
This will result in gusty southeast winds at 15 to around 20 knots
overnight becoming south and increasing into the 30 to 35 knot
range by the early afternoon. Wind gusts as high as 55 to 55 knots
possible at times between 18z Friday and 00z Saturday. These
strong winds will also produce produce periods of blowing dust
during the day which may locally reduce visibilities. After 00z
Saturday there will be a chance for scattered thunderstorms across
all of southwest Kansas. Low VFR ceilings will be possible near
these thunderstorms after 00z. Main hazard with these storms will
be large hail and strong damaging winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 223 AM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022

Strong winds in the boundary layer will mix down to the surface
today and result in gusty south winds of 35 to 45 mph by early
this Friday afternoon. Wind gusts of up to 65 mph will be possible
this afternoon and early tonight. These strong winds will occur
near and east of a dryline that will be located near the Colorado
border late today. The forecast afternoon relative humidity near
and west of this dryline will be as low as 15 percent. The
combination of the low humidity values and very strong south winds
today will produce extreme fire weather conditions for Morton,
Stanton and Hamilton county this afternoon. Open fires can quickly
escape and are very difficult to control. A red flag warning is
in effect for these 3 counties.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  89  55  78  41 /   0  60   0   0
GCK  91  51  76  38 /  10  60   0   0
EHA  91  50  75  38 /  20  40   0   0
LBL  91  53  78  39 /  10  50   0   0
HYS  90  59  78  42 /   0  60  10   0
P28  87  65  84  47 /   0  40  20   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 1 AM CDT
/midnight MDT/ Saturday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-
084>090.

Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 9 PM CDT /8
PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ061-074-084.

&&

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert
FIRE WEATHER...Burgert

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
140 PM CDT Thu Apr 21 2022

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-221845-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
140 PM CDT Thu Apr 21 2022 /1240 PM MDT Thu Apr 21 2022/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

A conditional risk of severe weather is possible tonight mainly
for areas east of Dodge City and south of Hays. A warm front will
lift into south central Kansas during the late afternoon and with
the moisture and wind profiles there could be an isolated
supercell storm develop after 6 PM. Primary risk could be hail
larger than 2 inches in diameter and a narrow window for a tornado
threat along the warm front. The activity should quickly move out
of the area and the risk will be over with by 10 PM.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
* Fire weather: Significant risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Tuesday.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Friday
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Saturday
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Sunday
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Monday
  - Excessive cold: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Tuesday
  - Excessive cold: Elevated risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Wednesday
  - Excessive cold: Elevated risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed between 6 pm and 10 pm for
Pawnee, Edwards, Kiowa, Comanche, Barber, Stafford, and Pratt
counties.

&&

For more details visit our webpage
https://weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ddc

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
842 PM CDT THU APR 21 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0836 PM     HAIL             8 WSW CENTERVIEW        37.77N 99.41W
04/21/2022  E1.00 INCH       EDWARDS            KS   STORM CHASER

&&

MR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
857 PM CDT THU APR 21 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     HAIL             1 ENE KINSLEY           37.93N 99.39W
04/21/2022  E1.00 INCH       EDWARDS            KS   STORM CHASER

&&

MR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
900 PM CDT Thu Apr 21 2022

KSZ065-079-220230-
Pawnee KS-Edwards KS-
900 PM CDT Thu Apr 21 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central Pawnee
and central Edwards Counties through 930 PM CDT...

At 900 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lewis, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Garfield around 920 PM CDT.
  Zook around 930 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for south central
Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3785 9927 3793 9942 3818 9929 3803 9900
TIME...MOT...LOC 0200Z 218DEG 21KT 3796 9931

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

TATRO