Red Flag Warning 17, NWS Dodge City, KS

Barber County, KS, Clark County, KS, Comanche County, KS, Edwards County, KS, Ellis County, KS, Finney County, KS, Ford County, KS, Grant County, KS, Gray County, KS, Hamilton County, KS, Haskell County, KS, Hodgeman County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Kiowa County, KS, Lane County, KS, Meade County, KS, Morton County, KS, Ness County, KS, Pawnee County, KS, Pratt County, KS, Rush County, KS, Scott County, KS, Seward County, KS, Stafford County, KS, Stanton County, KS, Stevens County, KS, Trego County, KS

152 
WWUS83 KDDC 090030
RFWDDC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
730 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2022

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-090130-
/O.EXP.KDDC.FW.W.0017.000000T0000Z-220409T0100Z/
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
730 PM CDT Fri Apr 8 2022 /630 PM MDT Fri Apr 8 2022/

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS
EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
030...031...043...044...045...046...061...062...063...064...065...
066...074...075...076...077...078...079...080...081...084...085...
086...087...088...089 AND 090...

$$

For more information from NOAA/National weather service visit...
http://weather.gov/ddc

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2022

...Updated Short Term...

.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Fri Apr 8 2022

The sprawling closed cyclone that has been the culprit for the
relentless NW wind the past 2 days, was spinning near Chicago at
midnight, with strong NWly flow aloft continuing over SW KS. Again
tonight, the boundary layer has decoupled from this momentum
aloft, with NWly surface winds averaging 10-20 mph. Dry air and
dry ground will encourage radiational cooling to send temperatures
well below normal sunrise Friday, mainly in the lower 30s, with
upper 20s across the NW zones.

Immediately after sunrise, the NW wind will increase sharply one
more time. Models show 850 mb NWly flow still in the 40 mph range
around 9-10 am, so some more gusts of that caliber are expected
during the late morning and midday hours. 00z NAM places a 1030 mb
surface high near Syracuse at 10 am, which will keep the NW winds
going through midday. Finally, by 4 pm, the surface ridge will
expand across SW KS, and NWly momentum aloft will decrease,
allowing the NW wind to mercifully diminish. Winds will trend
light and variable just after sunset. A very dry profile supports
0% sky grids Friday, and moderate warm advection in the afternoon
will support lower 60s for most locations, which is about 5
degrees below normal.

A clear sky will continue Friday night and Saturday morning, and
radiational cooling will easily send temperatures to near or just
below freezing sunrise Saturday. Radiational cooling does not look
optimal, as south winds of 10-15 are expected to return before
sunrise, and this will prevent a damaging freeze for early
vegetation at most locales.

Strong warming is expected Saturday, as mid level flow becomes
zonal, forcing cyclogenesis in eastern Colorado in the afternoon.
850 mb temperatures soaring well above +20C will support lower 80s
across the SW 1/2 of the CWA, given the bone dry ground and at
least some downsloping breeze component. South winds will be
strongest across eastern zones Saturday afternoon, averaging
15-25 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 121 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2022

A warm start to the long term forecast under northwest flow aloft
and high pressure building in across the CWA. Temperatures
Saturday into the 70s and even low 80s before a weak cold front
drops through Sunday morning knocking temperatures down a few
degrees during the afternoon. Strong winds are not expected at
this time but will turn out of a north to northwesterly direction.
Behind the progressive shortwave, high pressure back in across
western Kansas Monday with return southerly flow pushing
temperatures back into the 70s. Leeside troughing will develop and
deepen overnight into Tuesday allowing for quite the warmup into
the 80s for much of the CWA as south winds gust up to 20-30 mph at
this point.

The next best chance for any precipitation looks to be limited and
only some hints at northern counties getting edged by a few
sprinkles with the bulk of it into central and eastern portions of
the state. With northwest flow aloft, the shortwave looks to be
pretty progressive at this point yet again that will drop a cold
front through the CWA turning winds back out of the north to
northwest and temperatures down into the upper 50s to mid 60s for
midweek Wednesday and Thursday to end the long term period. Long
term outlooks show a warming trend thereafter with a continued
drier than average projection for later parts of the months with
limited to no chances of much precipitation for most of the CWA in
southwest Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1025 PM CDT Thu Apr 7 2022

VFR/SKC is expected through this TAF cycle. NW winds will average
10-20 kts overnight. After 15z Fri, NW winds will increase sharply
once again, but at speeds reduced compared to the past 2 days,
with gusts in the 30-35 kt range. NW winds will finally begin
subsiding after 21z Fri, and winds are expected to trend light and
variable by sunset/00z Sat.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  31  62  30  80 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  27  62  29  81 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  29  65  35  84 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  28  64  31  84 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  32  58  27  74 /   0   0   0   0
P28  35  61  32  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Lowe
AVIATION...Turner

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
231 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2022

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-080745-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
231 AM CDT Thu Apr 7 2022 /131 AM MDT Thu Apr 7 2022/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Thursday.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Intense northwest winds are expected again Thursday, with gusts to
near 65 mph expected. Travel will be difficult, and areas of
blowing dust are expected. The risk of wildfire spread will be
extreme for several hours this afternoon.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Extreme risk
* Fire weather: Extreme risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Northwest winds will continue Friday, but at reduced speeds.
Still, fire danger will remain significant Friday afternoon.
Quiet weather and no hazards are expected Saturday through Monday.
Another round of strong winds, blowing dust and fire danger is
expected Tuesday and Wednesday.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Friday
  - Fire weather: Significant risk

* Saturday
  No hazards.

* Sunday
  No hazards.

* Monday
  No hazards.

* Tuesday
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Significant risk

* Wednesday
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Extreme risk
  - Fire weather: Extreme risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage
https://weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ddc

Turner