Red Flag Warning 11, NWS Dodge City, KS

057 
WWUS83 KDDC 160040
RFWDDC

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
740 PM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022


KSZ061-074-084-160145-
/O.EXP.KDDC.FW.W.0011.000000T0000Z-220316T0100Z/
Hamilton-Stanton-Morton-
740 PM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022 /640 PM MDT Tue Mar 15 2022/

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS
EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
061...074 AND 084...

South winds will remain elevated at 10 to 20 mph this evening, but
relative humidity is expected to climb above 15% over the next
hour. The red flag warning will be allowed to expire at 8 PM CST. 

$$

Turner

For more information from NOAA/National weather service visit...
http://weather.gov/ddc

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
544 AM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022

A fairly uneventful setup in the near term. GOES16 showing a clear
sky over all of central and western Kansas. Some scattered high/mid
clouds could possibly be filtering southward, noted by enhancement
in the ABI Bands 8/9, likely enhanced by a weak PV anomaly rotating
south in SD/NE this morning. Whatever cloud may be present probably
will not impact an otherwise sunny day with rebounding temperatures
back into the and a few low 70s - with light winds area-wide.

The warmed up/modified airmass naturally will see lows overnight, not
as quite as cold as yesterday morning. Sky will still be clear for
very good longwave radiational cooling and winds will taper off to
around 10 knots or less again bases on consensus of all of the
models through 12z Wednesday.  Lows reaching around the freezing
mark of 32F or so will probably gradually increase as one moves
eastward into central Kansas while lows closer to 40 should be
common.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022

The synoptic pattern remains quite active. Wednesday afternoon will
see the leading edge of the next cold high pressure airmass, with
backing surface winds out of the north and northeast, while full
insolation continues to warm the afternoon temperatures into the
70s. The true brunt of the next system impacts the area late
Wednesday night into Thursday, with post frontal upslope drizzle and
rain developing on Thursday , resulting in temperatures relegated to
the 50s across much of the area. As far as the potential  for
precipitation goes, it'll be rain given the overall profiles, while
the mean of the ensembles is centered around Thursday morning time
wise for maximum probability , while members are clustered mainly
the one to three tenths of an inch area - outliers to both sides, so
the best bet is maybe around a quarter inch of rain around DDC and
shifted a little later in the day around Hays and points east. Not
to mention Thursday should be windy in addition to wet - momentum
transfer should ensure around 40 mph gusts all day long.

Friday through Sunday will be transitional days with successive
warmup. Much lighter winds  to start the period, although more windy
conditions will gradually develop on warm southerly flow and
adiabatic heating into the warmest day on Sunday - where 80s degrees
is not out of the question. The NBMs 75th percentile MaxT at DDC
shows potential for 89 degrees. The active pattern into the late
part of the weekend will bring another opportunity for rain and rain
or snow heading into the late Sunday and Monday time window.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 539 AM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022

A ridge of surface high pressure will maintain light and variable
wind area wide this afternoon, with a clear sky overhead through
the entirety of the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 351 AM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022

Very dry afternoon relative humidities are anticipated, as highs push
into the mid and upper 60s. Most of the area will be under the
influence of light winds generally under 10 knots  with the exception
of the far western counties (syracuse, Johnson and Elkhart) where
vertical wind profiles from the 3km nam does indicate a better
chance for winds in the 15 to 20 knot area from mid afternoon on -
the caveat though for red flag consideration is the strength and,
especially the frequency of the wind gusts. We think this is one of
those occasions where we'll hold off on a red flag issuance at
this time, because there looks like plenty of area for struggling
to achieve the greater than 20 mph gust criterion. However, if
winds begin to gusty frequently higher than 20 mph, a red flag
would likely be hoisted in the far west this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  37  72  39 /   0   0   0  10
GCK  67  34  69  37 /   0   0   0  20
EHA  69  38  71  34 /   0   0   0  20
LBL  69  37  73  36 /   0   0   0  10
HYS  67  35  69  39 /   0   0   0  10
P28  66  38  78  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell
FIRE WEATHER...Russell

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
449 AM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-161000-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
449 AM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022 /349 AM MDT Tue Mar 15 2022/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Elevated to Significant Fire weather risk is anticipated this
afternoon in counties along the Colorado line.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
* Fire weather: Significant risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Elevated Fire weather risk several afernoons through the week.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Wednesday
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Thursday
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk.

* Friday
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Saturday
  - Excessive cold: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Sunday
  - Excessive cold: Elevated risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Monday
  - Excessive cold: Elevated risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage
https://weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ddc