High Wind Watch 7, NWS Dodge City, KS

844 
WWUS73 KDDC 090719
NPWDDC

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
119 AM CST Wed Nov 9 2022

KSZ043-061-062-074-084-100100-
/O.UPG.KDDC.HW.A.0007.221109T1800Z-221110T0100Z/
/O.NEW.KDDC.HW.W.0012.221109T1800Z-221110T0100Z/
Scott-Hamilton-Kearny-Stanton-Morton-
Including the cities of Scott City, Scott State Lake, Syracuse, 
Lakin, Deerfield, Johnson City, and Elkhart
119 AM CST Wed Nov 9 2022 /1219 AM MST Wed Nov 9 2022/

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Scott, Hamilton, Kearny, Stanton and Morton Counties.

* WHEN...From noon today to 7 PM CST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Blowing dust will be possible which would
  reduce visibilities and add to travel impacts especially in 
  open areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

KSZ044-063-075>077-085>087-100100-
/O.NEW.KDDC.HW.W.0012.221109T1800Z-221110T0100Z/
Lane-Finney-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Stevens-Seward-Meade-
Including the cities of Dighton, Garden City, Ulysses, Sublette, 
Satanta, Cimarron, Montezuma, Hugoton, Liberal, Meade, 
Plains City, and Fowler
119 AM CST Wed Nov 9 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Lane, Finney, Grant, Haskell, Gray, Stevens, Seward 
  and Meade Counties.

* WHEN...From noon today to 7 PM CST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Blowing dust will be possible which would
  reduce visibilities and add to travel impacts especially in open
  areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1146 AM CST Tue Nov 8 2022

...Updated Aviation Section..

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 100 AM CST Tue Nov 8 2022

07z observations are showing stratus low clouds overspreading much
of southwest Kansas with airports reporting ceilings at 700-1600
ft. So far no fog has developed in our southeast zones as
dewpoints are still 10 degrees below our temperatures and will
need to monitor over the next few hours to see if saturation
happens for fog to develop as winds at P28 and PTT are 5-15 mph.
Overall temperatures are staying up with the lower level moisture
and strong winds keeping the boundary layer mixed. In the upper
levels a large upper low off the Pacific coast is keeping the
upper and mid level winds out of the southwest in our area with a
persistent 700 mb shortwave over the front range of the Rockies
which will keep our forecast windy through Thursday.

For today low clouds should hang around for much of the day in our
central and eastern zones with the potential for some clearing for
areas along the Colorado border. CAM models are suggesting some
light rain potential in our southeast zones as an upper level
shortwave comes out of Oklahoma to give us forcing. Winds overall
should stay strong out of the south but the best WAA doesn't look
to move in until late day and mostly in our western zones. Kept
inherited highs from the previous forecast as it looks like 60s
will be the case in our east to the lower 70s for the west.

Tonight the upper low off the Pacific coast should come on shore
and a strong shortwave over the lee side of the Rockies should
continue to intensify a surface low by Denver and a lee side
trough which will keep winds breezy through the night. Clouds
should continue to hang through the night and this will keep
temperatures up with lows in the 50s to lower 60s.

Wednesday the surface low in northeastern Colorado looks to
deepen to around 999 mb and will bring strong south to southwest
winds during the day which will continue to advect warm air across
the region. Expect sustained winds of 25-35 mph with gusts to
around 40-50 mph. Highs should reach into the mid 70s with the
highest confidence of the warmer temperatures being in the west.
The easter zones continue to show higher moisture which could lead
to more cloud cover and the potential to be a few degrees cooler.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 224 AM CST Tue Nov 8 2022

Wind will continue to be the main weather story to start off the
long term followed by a prolonged colder period.

Strongest winds still look to be between sunset Wednesday and
sunrise Thursday. RAP and NAM are indicating 850 winds around
55-60 kts and with the warmer temperatures there should be decent
mixing despite a slight inversion towards Thursday morning. As the
long wave trough moves into the central Rockies this will continue
to deepen the surface low near the Nebraska panhandle to around
994 mb. By Thursday morning the upper low will have moved into
South Dakota.

Every model has now sped up the cold front passage on Thursday to
sometime just after sunrise which would effectively take out the
dry southwest winds and the fire danger. This would pretty much
take out the chance of storms in our eastern zones as well with
the better moisture and forcing being in central and eastern
Kansas. As a result temperatures have been increased Wednesday
night ahead of the front and then lowered Thursday with the
frontal passage. Winds should stay strong out of the northwest all
day Thursday to aid in bringing in the colder air.

Afterwards the upper low becomes a broad trough that slowly moves
east in the northern plains keeping the colder arctic air in place
over the central and northern plains. Add on top of that the
potential for a significant snow in the Dakotas and we could be
experiencing colder than normal temperatures for a while as highs
look to be in the 40s with overnight lows in the teens and 20s
from Friday through the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM CST Tue Nov 8 2022

Poor aviation weather will continue through this TAF period as
abnormally high low level moisture will remain in place across
much of western Kansas. Dewpoint temperatures were in the upper
50s to lower 60s, and this rich moisture will not push east until
after the end of this TAF period. Thus, the dominant flight
category will be MVFR through this afternoon and early evening,
becoming IFR again tonight. Surface winds will remain strong
through the night, most likely not falling below 20 knots
sustained, if not only for a brief period of time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72  58  74  56 /  20   0   0  10
GCK  73  57  75  51 /  10   0   0  10
EHA  71  56  74  50 /  10   0   0  10
LBL  73  56  75  53 /  10   0   0  10
HYS  70  60  74  55 /  30   0   0  20
P28  71  61  75  62 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Umscheid

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
255 AM CST Tue Nov 8 2022

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-090900-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
255 AM CST Tue Nov 8 2022 /155 AM MST Tue Nov 8 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Strong winds from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning
will be sustained at 25-35 mph with gust potential up to 55-60
mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation won't be needed.