Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Cheyenne, WY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
238 PM MDT Mon Jun 20 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 216 PM MDT Mon Jun 20 2022

Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue to push to the
northeast quickly this afternoon, likely being outside of the cwa
by approximately 0Z to the north and east. The potent shortwave
responsible for the strong to severe thunderstorms will push to
the northeast across the Northern Plains overnight. Expect the
weak surface cold front to push across the area this evening and
overnight, but RH recoveries will be poor. Overnight lows will
still remain on the cooler side, with temperatures in the upper
30s across our western forecast zones upward to the low 50s in the
NE Panhandle.

Tuesday will be a dry and calm day. Temperatures will be near
seasonal norms with afternoon highs in the 70s and 80s by the late
afternoon hours. Mostly sunny skies, with a few afternoon cumulus
may be present. Tuesday night will also remain near seasonal norms
with temperatures bottoming out in the low 40s to mid 50s across
the cwa.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night - Sunday)
Issued at 439 AM MDT Mon Jun 20 2022

Tuesday night-Thursday...Another warming trend begins with the flow
aloft becoming zonal. With limited low and mid level moisture,
precipitation chances will remain slim.

Friday...Continued hot with 700 mb temperatures near 13 Celsius and
low amplitude ridging aloft. Perhaps some increase in low and mid
level moisture will aid in isolated afternoon and evening
thunderstorms mainly along and west of Interstate 25.

Saturday...Cooler in the wake of a shortwave trough aloft
and cold frontal passage. Looks like adequate low and mid level
moisture for scattered afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms.

Sunday...Continued relatively cool with 700 mb temperatures near
6 Celsius. Weak northwest flow aloft prevails, and with adequate low
and mid level moisture, scattered afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms will occur.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM MDT Mon Jun 20 2022

Significant changes to this TAF issuance, with HiRes model
guidance coming into better agreement for convection today.
Current radar imagery has a line of storms just off to the west,
in between KCYS and KLAR, with convective initiation occurring
slightly sooner than originally anticipated. On the Wyoming side,
strong dry boundary layer should limit most rain reaching the
ground, but cannot fully rule out some visibility drops if
stronger storms develop. Main concerns through tonight is the
potential for strong winds across southeastern Wyoming and the
Nebraska Panhandle, and a slight risk for severe thunderstorms
across the northern Panhandle, including KAIA, KCDR, and KBFF.
Strong to severe winds are possible today near the stronger
thunderstorms with up to 1 to 2 inch hail possible, in addition to
visibility drops where stronger rain showers are able to develop.
Confidence is low for visibility reductions into IFR, and left it
out of this TAF issuance. But cannot fully rule it out at this
time and will need to monitor the Panhandle for any AMDs required.
Storms should push eastward after 6pm, with gusty winds through
midnight, turning to light and variable tomorrow morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 216 PM MDT Mon Jun 20 2022

Fire weather concerns remain low to elevated across the area.
Gusty and erratic winds 15 to 25mph are likely this afternoon,
especially in the wind prone areas where higher gusts greater
than 50-60mph are possible this afternoon and tonight. Min RH
values of 15-20% are anticipated this afternoon across the
southern NE Panhandle where the warmest temperatures occur. RH
recoveries overnight will be 40-50% across Laramie County and
the southern NE Panhandle, with higher readings in the northern
and western FWZs.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Warning until 6 AM MDT Tuesday for WYZ110.

     High Wind Warning until 6 AM MDT Tuesday for WYZ106-107.

NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...MRD
FIRE WEATHER...BW

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
251 PM MDT Mon Jun 20 2022

NEZ019>021-202115-
Scotts Bluff NE-Morrill NE-Banner NE-
251 PM MDT Mon Jun 20 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Scotts
Bluff, west central Morrill and northeastern Banner Counties through
315 PM MDT...

At 251 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Wildcat Hills State Recreation Area, or 13 miles southeast of
Scottsbluff, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bayard, Minatare, Wildcat Hills State Recreation Area, Chimney Rock
State Park, Moomaws Corner, Wildcat Hills Campground, The
Intersection Of Highway 385 And L62, South Bayard Junction, Melbeta
and McGrew.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM MDT for
the Panhandle of Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4156 10357 4170 10375 4200 10339 4180 10312
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 226DEG 26KT 4169 10355

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Brothers

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
257 PM MDT Mon Jun 20 2022

NEZ002-202130-
Dawes NE-
257 PM MDT Mon Jun 20 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Dawes
County through 330 PM MDT...

At 256 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Chadron Airport, or 9 miles northwest of Chadron,
moving northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Chadron Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM MDT for
the Panhandle of Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4280 10314 4300 10336 4301 10334 4300 10280
      4292 10279
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 238DEG 50KT 4294 10309

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Fuller

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
259 PM MDT MON JUN 20 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     HEAVY RAIN       6 W HEMINGFORD          42.32N 103.19W
06/20/2022  M0.75 INCH       BOX BUTTE          NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER RECEIVED 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
            THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND PEA SIZE HAIL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
306 PM MDT MON JUN 20 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HAIL             16 NNE MITCHELL         42.16N 103.68W
06/20/2022  M1.00 INCH       SIOUX              NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED QUARTER SIZE 1 INCH HAIL AT
            200 PM MDT 16 MILES NNE OF MITCHELL, NE.

0232 PM     HAIL             16 SSE AGATE            42.20N 103.66W
06/20/2022  M1.75 INCH       SIOUX              NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED GOLF BALL SIZED 1.75 INCH
            HAIL AT 232 PM MDT 16 MILES SSE OF AGATE,
            NE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
309 PM MDT MON JUN 20 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0256 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 NW ELK MOUNTAIN       41.72N 106.45W
06/20/2022  M62 MPH          CARBON             WY   MESONET

            MESONET STATION WY19 2.9 NW ELK MOUNTAIN
            (WYDOT).

&&