Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Cheyenne, WY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
525 PM MDT Sat Jun 4 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Jun 4 2022

Overall, no major changes to the short term forecast with an upper
level low remaining nearly stationary across Ontario, and as a
result, zonal flow dominating the upper levels with several short
wave disturbances propagating within the flow. Current radar imagery
has picked up on a few cells which developed along a boundary
digging southeastward into northeastern Colorado across the Nebraska
Panhandle, with some gusty winds possible within these cells and
some hail potentials. CAMs have been performing well today,
picking up where the initial cells have developed and hugging the
Nebraska/Colorado line. With that being said, a marginal risk for
severe thunderstorms is possible for areas east of I-25, with
better values across the northern areas of the Nebraska Panhandle.
Dewpoints across the Panhandle have been a bit more favorable
with upper 50s reported just north of Alliance, and low 40s and
even mid-30s in southeastern Wyoming. Forecast soundings are also
hinting at better convective development across the Panhandle
with better MUCAPE values sitting just north of 2200 J/kg,
700-500mb lapse rate around 8.1C/km, and the SHIP parameter at
1.3. Main difficulties will remain with shear values looking much
better in earlier runs, which is evident in the latest progression
of cell development. Latest HiRes model runs have convection
continue to push eastward before moving out of the CWA in the
evening hours. Looking into tomorrow, the convective outlook
pushes the majority of impactful systems further eastward into
Central Nebraska, with the axis of better instability and shear
into west/central Nebraska. Similar timing for storms tomorrow
with a line of thunderstorms pushing eastwards across the CWA by
the late afternoon and into the Nebraska Panhandle in the
nighttime hours. Forecast soundings are indicating a nice inverted
V, dry air up to 3km, and decent DCAPEs on the north side of 600
J/kg, pushing more of a wind event with the line of storms across
the region. Confidence is low at this time with the last few days
showing similar forecast soundings and the elevated winds never
truly mixing downward to the surface.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Jun 4 2022

Surface boundary remains along the Laramie Range eastern slopes
for Monday with northeast upslope flow east of the boundary and
westerly winds west. Should be enough instability to produce
scattered afternoon thunderstorms Monday afternoon. MU CAPE
between 800 and 1000 J/KG with LIs -4 to -6C. Will need to watch
for better instability as we draw closer to Monday. SPC does have
a Marginal Risk outlined for the Panhandle Monday with a slight
Risk area to our south.

Boundary shifts east into western Nebraska Tuesday with bulk of
convection in North Plattes area. We do have an upper clipper
system moving into north central Wyoming Tuesday afternoon...so
this boundary may be pulled back to the west a little more.

Boundary stays pretty close to our eastern CWA through the rest of
the week for daily chances for showers and thunderstorm chances
across our eastern zones. Upper ridge axis does move overhead
towards the end of the week. This would make me think that the
frontal boundary may shift further east.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 522 PM MDT Sat Jun 4 2022

VFR. Thunderstorms in the vicinity at Cheyenne and Sidney until
02Z. Wind gusts to 25 knots at Wyoming terminals until 03Z, then
to 30 knots at Wyoming terminals, Alliance and Scottsbluff after
15Z Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sat Jun 4 2022

Widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are forecast
through early next week. Ongoing green-up and wetting rain chances,
fire weather concerns will remain minimal. Gusty/erratic winds and
lightning will be the main hazards, with small hail possible in the
vicinity of the stronger thunderstorms. Daily temperatures will
average near to slightly above normal.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
541 AM MDT Sat Jun 4 2022

WYZ101>119-051145-
Converse County Lower Elevations-Niobrara County-
North Laramie Range-Ferris/Seminoe/Shirley Mountains-
Shirley Basin-Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County-
East Platte County-Goshen County-Central Carbon County-
North Snowy Range Foothills-Southwest Carbon County-
Sierra Madre Range-Upper North Platte River Basin-Snowy Range-
Laramie Valley-South Laramie Range-South Laramie Range Foothills-
Central Laramie County-East Laramie County-
541 AM MDT Sat Jun 4 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central Wyoming...south
central Wyoming and southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected.
The threat for severe weather is low, however small hail and brief
wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible with the stronger storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are
expected Sunday through Tuesday. The threat for severe thunderstorms
is low, however small hail and brief wind gusts to 50 mph will be
possible with the stronger storms.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation will not be required.

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-051145-
Dawes County-Box Butte County-Scotts Bluff County-Banner County-
Morrill County-Kimball County-Cheyenne County-
Northern Sioux County-Southern Sioux County-
541 AM MDT Sat Jun 4 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for the western Nebraska Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected.
There is a marginal risk for strong to severe thunderstorms
producing hail up to one inch in diameter and wind gusts 60 mph or
higher.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms are
expected Sunday through Tuesday. The risk for severe thunderstorms
is marginal Sunday and Monday with hail up to one inch in diameter
and wind gusts 60 mph or higher possible.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation will not be required.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
528 PM MDT Sat Jun 4 2022

WYZ117-118-050000-
Central Laramie County WY-South Laramie Range Foothills WY-
528 PM MDT Sat Jun 4 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Laramie County through 600 PM MDT...

At 528 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Whitaker, or 26 miles north of Cheyenne, moving east
at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of north central
Laramie County.

This includes Interstate 25 in Wyoming between mile markers 33 and
44.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4149 10498 4163 10489 4154 10458 4137 10470
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 290DEG 22KT 4152 10485

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Natoli

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
551 PM MDT Sat Jun 4 2022

WYZ107-117-118-050015-
East Platte County WY-Central Laramie County WY-
South Laramie Range Foothills WY-
551 PM MDT Sat Jun 4 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Goshen,
north central Laramie and southeastern Platte Counties through 615 PM
MDT...

At 551 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles south of Chugwater, or 29 miles south of Wheatland, moving east
at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern
Goshen, north central Laramie and southeastern Platte Counties.

This includes Interstate 25 in Wyoming between mile markers 36 and
51.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4164 10502 4178 10466 4164 10465 4149 10465
      4149 10494
TIME...MOT...LOC 2351Z 256DEG 14KT 4163 10488

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Natoli

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
607 PM MDT Sat Jun 4 2022

NEZ020-021-054-055-050045-
Kimball NE-Cheyenne NE-Morrill NE-Banner NE-
607 PM MDT Sat Jun 4 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Cheyenne, northeastern Kimball, southwestern Morrill and southeastern
Banner Counties through 645 PM MDT...

At 607 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles southwest of Redington, or 19 miles northeast of Kimball,
moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Redington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4139 10351 4154 10356 4162 10326 4137 10314
TIME...MOT...LOC 0007Z 250DEG 12KT 4148 10347

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Hammer

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
717 PM MDT Sat Jun 4 2022

WYZ106-107-050145-
East Platte County WY-
Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County WY-
717 PM MDT Sat Jun 4 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Platte
County through 745 PM MDT...

At 717 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Bordeaux, or 13 miles south of Wheatland, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Slater and Bordeaux.

This includes Interstate 25 in Wyoming between mile markers 59 and
74.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4174 10503 4187 10514 4208 10480 4204 10467
      4183 10467
TIME...MOT...LOC 0117Z 238DEG 16KT 4186 10501

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Hammer