Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Cheyenne, WY

240 
WWUS55 KCYS 282355
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
555 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022

WYC001-290015-
/O.CON.KCYS.SV.W.0101.000000T0000Z-220729T0015Z/
Albany WY-
555 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM MDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL ALBANY COUNTY...

At 554 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 10 miles northeast
of Bosler, or 27 miles north of Laramie, moving south at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of east
central Albany County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4186 10563 4186 10548 4161 10540 4161 10573
TIME...MOT...LOC 2354Z 000DEG 22KT 4170 10558 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Natoli

484 
WWUS55 KCYS 290005
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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
605 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022

WYC001-290015-
/O.EXP.KCYS.SV.W.0101.000000T0000Z-220729T0015Z/
Albany WY-
605 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL ALBANY COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 615 PM MDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 4186 10563 4186 10548 4161 10540 4161 10573
TIME...MOT...LOC 0005Z 000DEG 22KT 4164 10558 

$$

Natoli

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
257 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 215 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022

The evening thunderstorm forecast remains on track. Afternoon
mesoanalysis reveals around 1000J/kg of ML CAPE along the I-25
corridor as surface fields recover in the wake of morning
convection. Convection to the west over the Sierra Madre and Snowy
Ranges has dropped up to 1" of rain in localized areas - matching
well with the overnight forecast expectations and short-term
guidance blends. Can expect to see similar rainfall totals in
around an hour or so in any stronger cores through the evening
hours. An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm or two does
remain a possibility from the Laramie Range eastward, as hinted at
by recent runs of the HRRR. While flow aloft is weaker today than
yesterday by around 10 knots, ample boundary layer moisture in an
upslope flow regime will still result in marginal bulk shear of
around 30-40 knots, especially north of Cheyenne. One or two
dominant cells may ultimately develop and track south-
southeastward, with gusty winds and hail the primary threats. HREF
ensemble guidance favors most activity diminishing by midnight.
Expect another mild overnight with temperatures running slightly above
average in areas that see lingering cloud cover.

Some uncertainly exists with regard to the Friday thunderstorm
freakiest. Most HREF members indicate a push of drier air from
the west through the late morning and early afternoon hours which
may ultimately mix out too much of the lingering shallow surface
moisture in upslope flow. Wind shear remains marginal at best,
however afternoon guidance still supports around 35-40 knots,
enough to sustain a few organized cells. The expectation is for
overall less thunderstorm coverage than we have seen for the past
two days, with slightly lower precipitation amounts in the heavier
cores. However, can not completely rule out a borderline severe
cell or two, especially toward evening along and south of I-80.
With less cloud cover, temperatures will recover on Friday by
about 5-8 degrees above our cool afternoon highs today.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 336 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022

The anomalous ridge over the PacNW late this week will begin to
shift eastward as height rises continue over the Intermountain-West
into the weekend. Temperatures aloft will steadily rise into early
next week reaching 18-20C at 700mb for Monday and Tuesday. This will
be above the climatological 95th percentile value for late July and
early August leading to afternoon highs in the 90s for most of the
CWA. A few spots across the Nebraska Panhandle could reach the
triple digits, especially on Monday and Tuesday. Deterministic NBM
forecast high temperatures came in higher with the latest forecast
cycle. Chadron looks to be the hottest location as NBM's
Interquartile Range for Monday and Tuesday sits between 99F and
104F.

Besides the return of above-normal temperatures this weekend into
early next week, chances for precipitation will be possible this
weekend, mostly confined to the higher terrain. Best chance for
precipitation could come Tuesday and Wednesday with a few frontal
passages along with monsoonal flow. Looking well out into the
extended, both GFS and EC hint at a rather large ridge setting up
over the central CONUS that should keep above-average temperatures
continuing through early August.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1143 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022

Low stratus clouds have lingered through the late morning in the
wake of the earlier thunderstorm activity. This has been
especially prevalent at BFF, SNY, as well as AIA. Recent
satellite imagery indicates some mixing and scattering of cloud
cover at these sites, suggesting cloud cover may break up in the
next 1-2 hours. IFR will linger at BFF the longest as surface
moisture and cloud cover remains deepest at this location. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop off the higher terrain
in southeast Wyoming in the noon-2pm timeframe. Thunderstorm
activity will slowly drift eastward impacting LAR, CYS, and
possibly BFF/SNY this afternoon. VIS reductions to MVFR and CIG
reductions below 1kft are possible in the strongest storms, which
will occur in the 23z-02z timeframe.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022

Fire weather concerns will remain minimal from today through
Friday as showers and thunderstorms continue to affect much of southeast
Wyoming. Wetting rains are especially likely in the higher terrain
this evening. Drier weather will move in for the weekend, however daily
showers in the higher terrain remain a possibility. Afternoon RH values
will drop into the 20% range in valley locations, however surface wind
flow should generally remain 20mph or less in all locations outside
of thunderstorm outflow.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for WYZ114.

NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...MAC
LONG TERM...MB
AVIATION...MAC
FIRE WEATHER...MAC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
230 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101>119-292030-
Dawes County-Box Butte County-Scotts Bluff County-Banner County-
Morrill County-Kimball County-Cheyenne County-
Northern Sioux County-Southern Sioux County-
Converse County Lower Elevations-Niobrara County-
North Laramie Range-Ferris/Seminoe/Shirley Mountains-
Shirley Basin-Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County-
East Platte County-Goshen County-Central Carbon County-
North Snowy Range Foothills-Southwest Carbon County-
Sierra Madre Range-Upper North Platte River Basin-Snowy Range-
Laramie Valley-South Laramie Range-South Laramie Range Foothills-
Central Laramie County-East Laramie County-
230 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of panhandle
Nebraska...east central Wyoming...south central Wyoming and
southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
Showers and thunderstorms will bring a threat of gusty outflow
winds as well as heavy rain through the evening. Southeast Wyoming
is the most likely location for strong thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
Afternoon showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will once again
affect southeast Wyoming on Friday. Drier weather moves in for the
weekend with showers and storms limited to mainly the mountains. A
return of moisture may bring increased thunderstorm coverage by
early next week.

.Spotter information statement...
Spotters are encouraged to report any wind damage or hail to their
local NWS office.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
409 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022

WYZ106-115>117-282300-
South Laramie Range WY-
Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County WY-
South Laramie Range Foothills WY-Laramie Valley WY-
409 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of east central Albany,
northwestern Laramie and southwestern Platte Counties through 500 PM
MDT...

At 408 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles southeast of Wheatland Reservoir 3 to
16 miles north of Iron Mountain. Movement was south at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Iron Mountain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4158 10560 4153 10505 4188 10520 4190 10560
TIME...MOT...LOC 2208Z 349DEG 18KT 4183 10557 4179 10522

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Natoli

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
500 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022

WYZ115-116-290000-
South Laramie Range WY-Laramie Valley WY-
500 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Albany
County through 600 PM MDT...

At 500 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Baldy Peak, or 18 miles north of Laramie, moving south at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Laramie, University Of Wyoming War Memorial Stadium and Baldy Peak.

This includes Interstate 80 in Wyoming between mile markers 309 and
321.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4163 10561 4163 10542 4126 10535 4126 10564
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 358DEG 18KT 4157 10554

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Natoli

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
523 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022

WYZ103-106-115-116-290015-
South Laramie Range WY-
Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County WY-
North Laramie Range WY-Laramie Valley WY-
523 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Albany
County through 615 PM MDT...

At 522 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles east of Wheatland Reservoir 3, or 33 miles west of Wheatland,
moving south at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central Albany
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4196 10563 4197 10546 4167 10537 4166 10566
TIME...MOT...LOC 2322Z 353DEG 20KT 4190 10558

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Natoli