High Wind Watch 12, NWS Cheyenne, WY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1033 PM MST Sun Feb 6 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM MST Sun Feb 6 2022

Key Impact Messages:

1) Elevated to high winds may develop across the wind prone across
the Snowy Range Foothills and around Arlington. A High Wind Watch
has been issued beginning Monday morning. Wind gusts in these
areas will approach 60 mph.

2) Breezy and dry conditions coupled with dry fuels across the NE
panhandle may lead to the develop of critical fire weather
conditions Monday and Tuesday ahead of an approaching frontal
boundary.

Weather Details:

High winds may develop Monday morning across the Snowy Range
Foothill wind prone areas. This setup is not a clear slam dunk,
but parameters have come together this afternoon in the latest
model runs. In-house models have continued to show a 45-50%
probability for high winds to develop. The main limiting factor
will be whether a meso-high develops across the Laramie range
which would back the winds to a more SW vector which would limit
the high wind potential. Both the HRRR and the 4km NAM are the
most aggressive with this meso-high feature developing and are
consistent with weaker overall wind speeds some 10-15kts weaker
compared to those who suggest a stronger high wind signal. WY
zones 106 and 116 will need to be monitored for potential wind
highlights. Again, the limiting factor is the 700-750mb wind
vectors and low end omega values. But omega values are progged to
increase during the day on Monday with 700mb winds increasing to
50kts. Decided to keep those zones out given the higher confidence
with the wind vectors remaining in the less than ideal direction.

Outside of the high winds, there is a chance for some critical
fire weather conditions to develop across the NE panhandle Monday
and Tuesday ahead of an approaching weak frontal boundary. Low RH
values are expected to in place and with a tightening pressure
gradient ahead of the front, winds should turn breezy and coupled
with low RH and dry fuels, fire weather concerns are increasing.
As mentioned, this frontal passage will be dry and will only
slightly reduce temperatures on Monday before rebounding on
Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 334 PM MST Sun Feb 6 2022

Mostly dry and windy pattern has remained on track with a prominent
northwesterly flow as a blocking ridge of high pressure begins to
set up across the western seaboard and a near stationary trough
stretching southwesterly across the Great Lakes. Fair amount of
uncertainty in terms of wind and any precipitation on Wednesday,
with both in house model guidance and the NBM v4.1 Probability of
Exceeding 48kts indicating a lesser likelihood of strong winds to
exceed 48 knots. As a result, went ahead and nudged the winds
towards slightly upwards with a max wind gust around 46 knots. In
terms of any precipitation chances beginning Wednesday, most
solutions have remained unclear with a fair amount of model
uncertainty and the upper level dynamics/moisture advection pushing
a drier solution. Should start to see temperatures rebound by the
late week, with daytime highs soaring into the low to mid 50s,
before dropping to the low 40s this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1027 PM MST Sun Feb 6 2022

VFR expected through the forecast period. Generally light winds
tonight, but could have winds briefly gust to around 25kts at
Wyoming terminals overnight. Increasing winds in the lower
atmosphere could produce marginal LLWS across our area, but it
doesn't look significant enough to add to the TAF. Widespread
breezy conditions Monday with gusts around 20 to 30 kts expected
at most terminals. Mountain wave activity is expected to increase
Monday evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 334 PM MST Sun Feb 6 2022

Low humidity values hovering around 25-30% will be common across
much of the NE panhandle. Fuels across the western NE panhandle
are dry and are ready to burn if fire weather reach critical
conditions. Elevated winds ahead of a weak surface boundary will
be possible across the entire region and conditions may need to
monitored across western NE Monday into Tuesday for the
development of critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday morning for
     WYZ110.

NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...AW
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...MN
FIRE WEATHER...AW

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