High Wind Warning 48, NWS Cheyenne, WY

881 
WWUS75 KCYS 070247
NPWCYS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
747 PM MST Sun Nov 6 2022

WYZ102-071200-
/O.EXA.KCYS.HW.W.0048.221107T1200Z-221108T0300Z/
Niobrara County-
Including the cities of Lusk and Redbird
747 PM MST Sun Nov 6 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM MST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Niobrara County.

* WHEN...From 5 AM to 8 PM MST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

NEZ002-003-095-096-071200-
/O.CON.KCYS.HW.W.0048.221107T1200Z-221108T0300Z/
Dawes County-Box Butte County-Northern Sioux County-
Southern Sioux County-
Including the cities of Chadron, Chadron St Park, Alliance, 
Hemingford, Harrison, and Agate
747 PM MST Sun Nov 6 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM MST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 65 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Dawes County, Box Butte County, Northern Sioux County 
  and Southern Sioux County.

* WHEN...From 5 AM to 8 PM MST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

WYZ104-105-109-111-071200-
/O.CON.KCYS.HW.A.0048.221107T1500Z-221108T1200Z/
Ferris/Seminoe/Shirley Mountains-Shirley Basin-
Central Carbon County-Southwest Carbon County-
Including the cities of Seminoe Dam, Medicine Bow, Shirley Basin,
Rawlins, and Baggs
747 PM MST Sun Nov 6 2022

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE MONDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  possible.

* WHERE...Ferris/Seminoe/Shirley Mountains, Shirley Basin, 
  Central Carbon County and Southwest Carbon County.

* WHEN...From Monday morning through late Monday night.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power 
  lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this
situation. Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe
location prior to the onset of winds.

&&

$$

785 
WWUS75 KCYS 070853
NPWCYS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
153 AM MST Mon Nov 7 2022

WYZ104-105-111-071000-
/O.CAN.KCYS.HW.A.0048.221107T1500Z-221108T1200Z/
Ferris/Seminoe/Shirley Mountains-Shirley Basin-
Southwest Carbon County-
Including the cities of Seminoe Dam, Medicine Bow, Shirley Basin,
and Baggs
153 AM MST Mon Nov 7 2022

...HIGH WIND WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The High Wind Watch has been cancelled. Strong winds and wind
gusts early this morning through the late afternoon up to 50mph
are expected. 

$$

WYZ109-080000-
/O.UPG.KCYS.HW.A.0048.221107T1500Z-221108T1200Z/
/O.EXB.KCYS.HW.W.0048.221107T1500Z-221108T0000Z/
Central Carbon County-
Including the city of Rawlins
153 AM MST Mon Nov 7 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST
THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Central Carbon County.

* WHEN...From 8 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Mainly to transportation. Light weight and high 
  profile vehicles including light load semis and those towing 
  camper trailers will be at risk.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

&&

$$

WYZ110-080000-
/O.EXB.KCYS.HW.W.0048.221107T1500Z-221108T0000Z/
North Snowy Range Foothills-
Including the cities of Arlington and Elk Mountain
153 AM MST Mon Nov 7 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST
THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...North Snowy Range Foothills.

* WHEN...From 8 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Mainly to transportation. Light weight and high
  profile vehicles including light load semis and those towing
  camper trailers will be at risk.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

&&

$$

NEZ002-003-095-096-WYZ102-080000-
/O.CON.KCYS.HW.W.0048.221107T1200Z-221108T0300Z/
Dawes County-Box Butte County-Northern Sioux County-
Southern Sioux County-Niobrara County-
Including the cities of Chadron, Chadron St Park, Alliance, 
Hemingford, Harrison, Agate, Lusk, and Redbird
153 AM MST Mon Nov 7 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS
MORNING TO 8 PM MST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 30 to 50 mph with gusts up to 70 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...In Nebraska, Dawes County, Box Butte County, Northern 
  Sioux County and Southern Sioux County. In Wyoming, Niobrara 
  County.

* WHEN...From 5 AM early this morning to 8 PM MST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Mainly to transportation. Light weight and high
  profile vehicles including light load semis and those towing
  camper trailers will be at risk.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

&&

$$

BW

546 
WWUS75 KCYS 071522
NPWCYS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
822 AM MST Mon Nov 7 2022

WYZ106-080000-
/O.EXA.KCYS.HW.W.0048.000000T0000Z-221108T0000Z/
Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County-
Including the city of Bordeaux
822 AM MST Mon Nov 7 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...South winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* WHERE...Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM MST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Mainly to transportation. Light weight and high 
  profile vehicles including light load semis and those towing 
  camper trailers will be at risk.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

&&

$$

NEZ019>021-055-080000-
/O.EXA.KCYS.HW.W.0048.000000T0000Z-221108T0300Z/
Scotts Bluff County-Banner County-Morrill County-Cheyenne County-
Including the cities of Scottsbluff, Gering, Harrisburg, Angora, 
Bridgeport, Bayard, Redington, Sidney, and Brownson
822 AM MST Mon Nov 7 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 70 mph.

* WHERE...Scotts Bluff County, Banner County, Morrill County and 
  Cheyenne County.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM MST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Mainly to transportation. Light weight and high 
  profile vehicles including light load semis and those towing 
  camper trailers will be at risk.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

&&

$$

WYZ109-110-080000-
/O.CON.KCYS.HW.W.0048.000000T0000Z-221108T0000Z/
Central Carbon County-North Snowy Range Foothills-
Including the cities of Rawlins, Arlington, and Elk Mountain
822 AM MST Mon Nov 7 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Central Carbon County.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM MST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Mainly to transportation. Light weight and high 
  profile vehicles including light load semis and those towing 
  camper trailers will be at risk.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

&&

$$

NEZ002-003-095-096-WYZ102-080000-
/O.CON.KCYS.HW.W.0048.000000T0000Z-221108T0300Z/
Dawes County-Box Butte County-Northern Sioux County-
Southern Sioux County-Niobrara County-
Including the cities of Chadron, Chadron St Park, Alliance, 
Hemingford, Harrison, Agate, Lusk, and Redbird
822 AM MST Mon Nov 7 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 30 to 50 mph with gusts up to 70 mph.

* WHERE...In Nebraska, Dawes County, Box Butte County, Northern 
  Sioux County and Southern Sioux County. In Wyoming, Niobrara 
  County.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM MST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Mainly to transportation. Light weight and high 
  profile vehicles including light load semis and those towing 
  camper trailers will be at risk.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 mph or gusts
of 58 mph or more can lead to property damage.

&&

$$

958 
WWUS75 KCYS 072024
NPWCYS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
124 PM MST Mon Nov 7 2022

WYZ106-080000-
/O.CON.KCYS.HW.W.0048.000000T0000Z-221108T0000Z/
Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County-
Including the city of Bordeaux
124 PM MST Mon Nov 7 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...South winds 30 to 40 MPH with gusts up to 60 MPH.

* WHERE...Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM MST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Mainly to transportation. Light weight and high 
  profile vehicles including light load semis and those towing 
  camper trailers will be at risk.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 MPH or gusts
of 58 MPH or more can lead to property damage.

&&

$$

WYZ109-110-080000-
/O.CON.KCYS.HW.W.0048.000000T0000Z-221108T0000Z/
Central Carbon County-North Snowy Range Foothills-
Including the cities of Rawlins, Arlington, and Elk Mountain
124 PM MST Mon Nov 7 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 30 to 40 MPH with gusts up to 60 MPH.

* WHERE...Central Carbon County.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM MST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Mainly to transportation. Light weight and high 
  profile vehicles including light load semis and those towing 
  camper trailers will be at risk.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 MPH or gusts
of 58 MPH or more can lead to property damage.

&&

$$

NEZ002-003-019>021-055-095-096-WYZ102-080300-
/O.CON.KCYS.HW.W.0048.000000T0000Z-221108T0300Z/
Dawes County-Box Butte County-Scotts Bluff County-Banner County-
Morrill County-Cheyenne County-Northern Sioux County-
Southern Sioux County-Niobrara County-
Including the cities of Chadron, Chadron St Park, Alliance, 
Hemingford, Scottsbluff, Gering, Harrisburg, Angora, Bridgeport, 
Bayard, Redington, Sidney, Brownson, Harrison, Agate, Lusk, 
and Redbird
124 PM MST Mon Nov 7 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 35 to 45 MPH with gusts up to 70 MPH.

* WHERE...In Nebraska, Dawes County, Box Butte County, Northern 
  Sioux County and Southern Sioux County. In Wyoming, Niobrara 
  County.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM MST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Mainly to transportation. Light weight and high 
  profile vehicles including light load semis and those towing 
  camper trailers will be at risk.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Wind Warning means a hazardous high wind event is expected
or occurring. Sustained wind speeds of at least 40 MPH or gusts
of 58 MPH or more can lead to property damage.

&&

$$

192 
WWUS75 KCYS 072358
NPWCYS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
458 PM MST Mon Nov 7 2022

WYZ106-109-110-080100-
/O.CAN.KCYS.HW.W.0048.000000T0000Z-221108T0000Z/
Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County-
Central Carbon County-North Snowy Range Foothills-
Including the cities of Bordeaux, Rawlins, Arlington, 
and Elk Mountain
458 PM MST Mon Nov 7 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

Wind gusts have decreased to 30 to 40 mph across southwest Platte
County and central Carbon County. South to southwest wind gusts 
near 45 mph remain possible overnight in central Carbon County.

$$

NEZ002-003-019>021-055-095-096-WYZ102-080300-
/O.CON.KCYS.HW.W.0048.000000T0000Z-221108T0300Z/
Dawes County-Box Butte County-Scotts Bluff County-Banner County-
Morrill County-Cheyenne County-Northern Sioux County-
Southern Sioux County-Niobrara County-
Including the cities of Chadron, Chadron St Park, Alliance, 
Hemingford, Scottsbluff, Gering, Harrisburg, Angora, Bridgeport, 
Bayard, Redington, Sidney, Brownson, Harrison, Agate, Lusk, 
and Redbird
458 PM MST Mon Nov 7 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 35 to 45 MPH with gusts up to 70 MPH.

* WHERE...In Nebraska, Dawes County, Box Butte County, Northern 
  Sioux County and Southern Sioux County. In Wyoming, Niobrara 
  County.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM MST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Mainly to transportation. Light weight and high 
  profile vehicles including light load semis and those towing 
  camper trailers will be at risk.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

040 
WWUS75 KCYS 080253
NPWCYS

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
753 PM MST Mon Nov 7 2022

NEZ002-003-019>021-055-095-096-WYZ102-080400-
/O.EXP.KCYS.HW.W.0048.000000T0000Z-221108T0300Z/
Dawes County-Box Butte County-Scotts Bluff County-Banner County-
Morrill County-Cheyenne County-Northern Sioux County-
Southern Sioux County-Niobrara County-
Including the cities of Chadron, Chadron St Park, Alliance, 
Hemingford, Scottsbluff, Gering, Harrisburg, Angora, Bridgeport, 
Bayard, Redington, Sidney, Brownson, Harrison, Agate, Lusk, 
and Redbird
753 PM MST Mon Nov 7 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MST THIS EVENING...

Wind gusts have decreased to 35 to 45 mph across the Nebraska
panhandle and east central Wyoming. Southerly wind gusts to 45 mph
remain possible overnight.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1054 AM MST Sun Nov 6 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 330 AM MST Sun Nov 6 2022

The active weather pattern that plagued the area is slowly coming
to a close early this morning. Very strong wind gusts were
observed yesterday...between 60-90mph, and the elevated wind
gusts continue overnight as of 10Z. The I-80 corridor between
Laramie and Rawlins still are seeing wind gusts near 40-50 mph.
Taking a look at the present radar, multiple radar echoes are
present due to the advancing cold front across the region. Light
rain and snow showers have been observed from the late evening
hours into the early morning period, with a couple areas seeing
snow squalls temporarily. The advancing cold front is in response
to a deep, occluded 984mb surface low pressure presently located
in Manitoba. GOES Water Vapor satellite imagery shows a distinct
attendant upper level wave circulating over the same area,
providing further evidence of the stacked upper level system. The
surface cold front is quickly moving across southern WY, with
cloud cover advancing along with it. Per SPC Mesoanalysis, an
impressive 160+ knot jet streak is also co-located over central WY
into the NE Panhandle early this morning.

As the day presses on, orographic enhancement on the west and
southwest facing slopes of the Snowy and Sierra Madre mountains
will slowly wind down. Light snow showers will remain present,
but will not be extending the current Winter Weather Advisory due
to low snowfall accumulations for the remainder of the day. Due to
the cold front moving through the area, we can expect lingering
cloud cover for a majority of the day as CAA becomes present.
700mb temperatures behind this cold front will cool to a range of
negative 5C to negative 11C by 21Z this afternoon. Chilly
temperatures are forecast, with daytime highs in the 30s and 40s
for the lower terrain, and sub-freezing in the mountain zones of
Carbon and Albany County. This is approximately 5-10 degrees below
normal for the first week of November, so if planning on being
outdoors for a prolonged period of time today, it may be prudent
to wear an additional layer of clothing.

Sunday night into Monday will see a transition to upper level
ridge amplification over the Intermountain West. WAA will ensue,
with south-southwesterly flow adiabatically warming the lower
levels of the atmosphere overnight. By 12Z Monday, 700mb
temperatures across the area will range from -1C to +4C. This
trend will continue as a LLJ begins to enhance across the region,
and wind speeds aloft begin to increase thanks to an approaching
upper level trough further upstream. A weak warm front will sweep
across the area Monday. The daytime high temperatures are
expected to rise into the 50s for the lower terrain, with even a
few localized areas creeping into the lower 60s potentially. The
higher terrain will remain cool, with daytime highs in the 30s.
The main reason for localized warmer temperatures will be due to a
return of elevated to strong winds. The wind direction will be
mainly from a southerly direction this time around as a surface
low pressure rapidly develops in northeast WY into the SD area.
Pressure tendencies across northern WY into the northern Plains
will change up to 5-13mb over a 6 to 12 hour period. The large of
a change in surface pressure will result in strong winds. At this
time, 700mb winds are progged to be the strongest across Carbon
County, and also the NE Panhandle area. GFS model guidance is
trending with 50-60 knots at this level. Omega fields show that
subsidence may take a bit of time to coincide with the strongest
winds aloft, so have gone with a High Wind Watch for only Carbon
County zones at this time, but certainly wouldn't be surprised to
see portions of the NE Panhandle added to this headline later
today. The 0Z and 6Z iterations of the HRRR and NamNest highlight
a period of strong wind gusts not only in Carbon County, but the
Pine Ridge area of our cwa. Deterministic 10 meter wind gusts are
depicted to be up to 50-70mph potentially for several areas of the
cwa Monday morning into the afternoon hours. The experimental NBM
4.1 also has numerous regions creeping upwards into the 50+ mph
wind gust range from Monday morning into the afternoon hours. For
areas that won't have as strong of wind gusts, it will still be
breezy for the day. Dry conditions are expected for Monday
afternoon into the overnight period of early Tuesday. However,
there is likely to be weak upslope winds present Monday night. A
closer look to the potential for fog across the North Platte River
Valley and other locations east of I-25 may be prudent once higher
resolution data becomes available.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM MST Sun Nov 6 2022

Key Impact Messages:

1) Above normal temperatures Tuesday near +10F degrees and pleasant
conditions overall. Enjoy this day as it will be last warmer day
of the extended forecast period.

2) Pattern change signals are afoot Wednesday into Thursday with
strong cold front passage, increasing snow chances for mountains and
High Plains, elevated winds, and much colder temperatures late week
and weekend. Depending on pattern elements, will need to monitor for
a possible potent weather system near the area to just north/east
into the Central and northern Plains. See more details below.

3) Be sure to follow trusted weather sources on this upcoming mid-
week system.

Weather Discussion: Confidence continues to be high in above normal
temperatures Tuesday and it being the warmest day of the next 7-day
period. The U.S. CONUS will be split with amplified ridge east and
digging long wave closed low H5 trough across the Pacific Coast.
Deep SW flow will be in place over WY/NE Tuesday with H7 temperatures
in the +3C to +7C range west to east. Temperatures across the High
Plains will be in the lower to upper 60s with 50s in the higher
mountain valleys. Relative humidity will drop below 20% in a few
locations but winds should remain below red flag criteria.

The main time period to monitor will be late Wednesday into Thursday
for possible winter/wind impacts across parts of SE WY and central
to north Panhandle as a few scenarios could play out. Model cluster
analysis highlights closed low trough positioning over the
Intermountain West of varying latitudinal differences poleward or
equatorward from ID to NV/CA. Multi-model consensus envelope has
slowed slightly on trough axis progression and closed low
positioning remains slightly farther west into mid-day Wednesday. A
shallow cold front will be likely positioned across north WY to near
north NE Panhandle and ooze south through the day Wednesday
underneath H7-H5 SW flow aloft. How far south the shallow front
remains in question or if it hangs up near the WY/CO border and/or
up against the Laramie Range Wednesday afternoon. Stronger surface
cyclogenesis should commence late Wednesday into early Thursday as
parent closed low deepens and ejects into the High Plains. Where the
surface cyclogenesis occurs and translates will be a key factor in
impacts or limited impacts for us Thursday regarding different
evolution scenarios. As the surface low develops and shifts east,
cold air will shift quickly into the region late Wednesday through
early Thursday morning - supporting snow precipitation type across
all areas. Question is: How robust will the moisture content be and
where will it be best concentrated relative to lifting mechanisms.

Scenario 1 is surface low development initially on the Front Range
and shifting faster east into central and northern NE to SD Thursday
with scenario 2 also indicative of surface low development and
deepening along the front range but slightly farther south (near or
south of Palmer Divide) and shifting slower northeast across KS/NE
to north NE through Thursday. Run to run model suite continues to
hone in on a stronger closed low developing across the Central to
Northern Plains during the day Thursday and confidence is growing in
this general consensus. Question will be track differences that
range from 150-250 miles and thus backside deformation zone moisture
plume location. Scenario 1, the more northerly and faster track
still produces some snow for the High Plains, especially for
northern portions of the CWA and then into the Dakotas. Scenario 2,
spells more impacts for SE WY and NE Panhandle that could result in
winter headlines. Looking at ensemble/statistical distributions,
Scenario 2 (GFS tilted) remains a higher QPF outlier and above its
own GEFS mean with a large GEFS spread. ECENS and respective EC
deterministic is roughly 50% lower then the GEFS and GFS
deterministic currently. However, EC has played catch up to the
overall pattern as it shifts closer to the larger scale pattern and
more consistent GFS H5 height/vorticity solutions. NBM probabilities
favor scenario 1 currently but appear to have data integrity issues
and are only incorporating GEFS/GFS raw data at the time of this
writing. This would certainly skew distributions/probabilities
higher and not ready to buy into these statistics and will monitor
future NBM runs.

All this is to share, as noted in key messages above, that overall
confidence of a possible potent winter system is slowly growing for
late Wednesday into next Thursday possibly near the region. Impacts
are not guaranteed at this time as it could shift farther north and
east with only some snow/wind for our area. However, there does
remain the possibility within the solution envelope that greater
snow/wind impacts could result and prompt Headlines to highlight
impacts. Despite the lower confidence of impacts, high confidence
exists in much colder temperatures Thursday through the weekend with
Lows in the teens (some single digits west of Laramie Range) and
Highs barely reaching above freezing. Thursday into Friday will also
be breezy with raw wind chills and unpleasantness overall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1053 AM MST Sun Nov 6 2022

A weak disturbance will move through the area tonight, bringing
increased cloud cover, gusty winds, and the potential for light
showers. Most terminals will see mostly cloudy skies this afternoon
and wind gusts of 20 to 30 kts. A brief break in the winds will
occur this evening before picking up later tonight as the
disturbance moves through. Gusts of 25 to 35 kts are possible,
especially for western Nebraska terminals. Light showers are also
possible during this time. Looking ahead at Monday, strong, gusty
winds are looking more likely across western Nebraska. Gusts over 45
kts cannot be ruled out, especially for KCDR and KAIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 AM MST Sun Nov 6 2022

Fire weather concerns will remain low for today as a cold front
moves through the area. Dry air behind this cold front will bring
minimum RH values into the 25-35% range east of the I-25 corridor.
Gusty winds will make a return to Southeast Wyoming and the NE
Panhandle on Monday. Wind gusts in excess of 50-55mph are possible
for FWZs 417, 434, and 435 on Monday. This will create elevated
fire weather conditions for those regions. A strong cold front will
impact the area by mid-week, keeping fire weather concerns at bay.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Watch from Monday morning through late Monday night
     for WYZ104-105-109-111.

NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...JSA
AVIATION...SF
FIRE WEATHER...BW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
354 AM MST Sun Nov 6 2022

NEZ002-003-095-096-WYZ102-071100-
Dawes County-Box Butte County-Northern Sioux County-
Southern Sioux County-Niobrara County-
354 AM MST Sun Nov 6 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of panhandle
Nebraska and east central Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Strong winds greater than 50mph are possible from Monday morning
into the afternoon period.

A strong cold front will arrive by mid-week. The potential for
moderate to heavy snowfall accumulations are possible Wednesday
into Thursday. Please stay tuned to forecast updates for more
information.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

WYZ104-105-109-111-071100-
Ferris/Seminoe/Shirley Mountains-Shirley Basin-
Central Carbon County-Southwest Carbon County-
354 AM MST Sun Nov 6 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Strong winds greater than 55-60mph are possible on Monday morning
through early Tuesday. Please see the latest High Wind Watch
Statement for further details.

A strong cold front will arrive by mid-week. Below normal
temperatures are likely after the cold front moves through the
area by up to 10-20 degrees compared to seasonal averages.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

NEZ019>021-054-055-WYZ101-103-106>108-110-113-115>119-071100-
Scotts Bluff County-Banner County-Morrill County-Kimball County-
Cheyenne County-Converse County Lower Elevations-
North Laramie Range-
Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County-
East Platte County-Goshen County-North Snowy Range Foothills-
Upper North Platte River Basin-Laramie Valley-South Laramie Range-
South Laramie Range Foothills-Central Laramie County-
East Laramie County-
354 AM MST Sun Nov 6 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of panhandle
Nebraska...east central Wyoming...south central Wyoming and
southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

Strong winds greater than 50mph are possible from Monday morning
into the afternoon period.

A strong cold front will arrive by mid-week. Below normal
temperatures are likely after the cold front moves through the
area by up to 10-20 degrees compared to seasonal averages.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

WYZ112-114-071100-
Sierra Madre Range-Snowy Range-
354 AM MST Sun Nov 6 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A strong cold front will arrive by mid-week. Below normal
temperatures are likely after the cold front moves through the
area by up to 10-20 degrees compared to seasonal averages. Folks
planning on doing outdoor hiking or hunting should continue to
monitor forecast updates.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

BW