Wind Advisory 3, NWS State College, PA

Adams County, PA, Bedford County, PA, Blair County, PA, Cambria County, PA, Cameron County, PA, Centre County, PA, Clearfield County, PA, Clinton County, PA, Columbia County, PA, Cumberland County, PA, Dauphin County, PA, Elk County, PA, Franklin County, PA, Fulton County, PA, Huntingdon County, PA, Juniata County, PA, Lancaster County, PA, Lebanon County, PA, Lycoming County, PA, McKean County, PA, Mifflin County, PA, Montour County, PA, Northumberland County, PA, Perry County, PA, Potter County, PA, Schuylkill County, PA, Snyder County, PA, Somerset County, PA, Sullivan County, PA, Tioga County, PA, Union County, PA, Warren County, PA, York County, PA

742 
WWUS71 KCTP 190350
NPWCTP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
1050 PM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033-191600-
/O.CON.KCTP.WI.Y.0003.220219T0900Z-220220T0000Z/
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Clearfield-Cambria-Somerset-
Including the cities of Warren, Bradford, Coudersport, St. Marys,
Ridgway, Emporium, DuBois, Clearfield, Johnstown, and Somerset
1050 PM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Warren, McKean, Potter, Elk, Cameron, Clearfield, 
  Cambria and Somerset Counties.

* WHEN...The strongest winds will be from late morning through
  late afternoon. 

* IMPACTS...The wind could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down, causing isolated outages. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow showers and squalls will produce
  around an inch of accumulation during the morning hours. Strong
  winds will then cause areas of blowing snow to linger into the 
  afternoon, possibly resulting in lingering travel issues. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

For high wind safety information, visit weather.gov/wind.

The latest forecast information can be found on the NWS State
College Facebook page and Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or on the web
at weather.gov/ctp.

&&

$$

PAZ012-018-019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066-191600-
/O.CON.KCTP.WI.Y.0003.220219T1400Z-220220T0000Z/
Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-
Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-
Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-
Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of Renovo, Philipsburg, State College, 
Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, 
Bedford, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Mansfield, Wellsboro, 
Trout Run, Laporte, Lock Haven, Williamsport, Lewisburg, 
Selinsgrove, Danville, Sunbury, Shamokin, Bloomsburg, Berwick, 
Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, Carlisle, 
Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster
1050 PM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 9 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down, resulting in isolated power outages. 
 
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow showers and squalls will move through
  the area during the late morning and early afternoon, possibly
  resulting in hazardous travel conditions. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

For high wind safety information, visit weather.gov/wind.

The latest forecast information can be found on the NWS State
College Facebook page and Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or on the web
at weather.gov/ctp.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://weather.gov/ctp

770 
WWUS71 KCTP 190355
NPWCTP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
1055 PM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033-191600-
/O.CON.KCTP.WI.Y.0003.220219T0900Z-220220T0000Z/
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Clearfield-Cambria-Somerset-
Including the cities of Warren, Bradford, Coudersport, St. Marys,
Ridgway, Emporium, DuBois, Clearfield, Johnstown, and Somerset
1055 PM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Warren, McKean, Potter, Elk, Cameron, Clearfield, 
  Cambria and Somerset Counties.

* WHEN...The strongest winds will be from late morning through 
  late afternoon.

* IMPACTS...The wind could blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down, causing isolated outages.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow showers and squalls will produce 
  around an inch of accumulation during the morning hours. 
  Strong winds will then cause areas of blowing snow to linger 
  into the afternoon, possibly resulting in lingering travel 
  issues.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

For high wind safety information, visit weather.gov/wind.

The latest forecast information can be found on the NWS State
College Facebook page and Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or on the web
at weather.gov/ctp.

&&

$$

PAZ012-018-019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066-191600-
/O.CON.KCTP.WI.Y.0003.220219T1400Z-220220T0000Z/
Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-
Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-
Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-
Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of Renovo, Philipsburg, State College, 
Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, 
Bedford, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Mansfield, Wellsboro, 
Trout Run, Laporte, Lock Haven, Williamsport, Lewisburg, 
Selinsgrove, Danville, Sunbury, Shamokin, Bloomsburg, Berwick, 
Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, Carlisle, 
Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster
1055 PM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 9 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday. The strongest winds will
  occur during the afternoon. 

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down, resulting in isolated power 
  outages.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow showers and squalls will move 
  through the area during the late morning and early afternoon, 
  possibly resulting in hazardous travel conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

For high wind safety information, visit weather.gov/wind.

The latest forecast information can be found on the NWS State
College Facebook page and Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or on the web
at weather.gov/ctp.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
http://weather.gov/ctp

189 
WWUS71 KCTP 190847
NPWCTP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
347 AM EST Sat Feb 19 2022

PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033-200000-
/O.CON.KCTP.WI.Y.0003.220219T0900Z-220220T0000Z/
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Clearfield-Cambria-Somerset-
Including the cities of Warren, Bradford, Coudersport, St. Marys,
Ridgway, Emporium, DuBois, Clearfield, Johnstown, and Somerset
347 AM EST Sat Feb 19 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts 40 to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Cambria, Clearfield, Somerset, Elk, Cameron, McKean, 
  Warren and Potter Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM this evening. The strongest winds will occur 
  from late morning through late afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

For high wind safety information, visit weather.gov/wind.

The latest forecast information can be found on the
NWS State College Facebook page and Twitter @NWSStateCollege,
or on the web at weather.gov/ctp.

&&

$$

PAZ012-018-019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066-200000-
/O.CON.KCTP.WI.Y.0003.220219T1400Z-220220T0000Z/
Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-
Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-
Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-
Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of Renovo, Philipsburg, State College, 
Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, 
Bedford, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Mansfield, Wellsboro, 
Trout Run, Laporte, Lock Haven, Williamsport, Lewisburg, 
Selinsgrove, Danville, Sunbury, Shamokin, Bloomsburg, Berwick, 
Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, Carlisle, 
Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster
347 AM EST Sat Feb 19 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts 45 to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 9 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening. The
  strongest winds will occur this afternoon. 

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

For high wind safety information, visit weather.gov/wind.

The latest forecast information can be found on the
NWS State College Facebook page and Twitter @NWSStateCollege,
or on the web at weather.gov/ctp.

&&

$$
MRS/JRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
224 PM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy and much colder today with rain and snow showers early
this morning giving way to a mix of clouds and sunshine.
The risk of flooding will remain elevated across the northern
tier of central PA through midday due to a combination of
excessive runoff, snowmelt, and potential ice jams. Snow squalls
are possible Saturday morning into the early afternoon. Fair
weather and moderating temperatures are expected Sunday through
Monday with soaking rain returning to the area on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Dwindling SHSN over the Laurels with hardly a flurry elsewhere in
the mtns. Drying evident on the sat pics and in the dropping
dewpoints. Expect some more clearing for the west, but clouds will
return on WAA ahead of the strong Clipper system. Mainly clear sky
for the rest of the area thru sunrise. Temps will fall off at first
tonight, but stabilize or even rise just a tad over the NW where
clouds and light snow come back in before sunrise. Mins should be
widespread l-m20s with early teen readings in the NW.

WAA precip should develop a couple of hours before the squall
potential ramps up and the cold front nears/passes late at
night. This might make a dusting to an inch in the NW. Squall
potential is the main threat very late tonight as conditions
become classic/excellent. But, they/it (likely one longer
squall perpendicular to the flow) is progged by many CAMs to
arrive in Warren Co right at or slightly before sunrise. Gusty
winds will make visbys lower in the snow. The snow/squalls will
also be arriving as some are headed out for the day. It's not a
workday for many, but still a likely time for people to head
out. This combination of threats (snow, blowing snow, squalls,
time of day) despite not meeting strict snow amount (or ice)
criteria has made it a tough decision. But, we will post a
winter wx advy for the Alleghenies and Laurels for the morning
hours. A wind advisory will also go up at the same time, as the
winds will pick up with the front/squalls and last for much of
the rest of the day, perhaps not peaking until late aftn.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Squall potential is now pretty much a certainty. The threat for
advy wind gusts is also very high, if not totally certain. Thus,
a wind advy will stretch across all the CWA for the period along
and after the passage of the cold front and attendant squalls.

As has been discussed for a couple of shifts, the snow squall
parameter is maximized in the morning hours. Many CAMs have a
narrow squall progged to cross the area from NW to SE from 11Z
NW thru 17-18Z far SE. The potency and coverage of any squalls
will likely be decreased somewhat as they descend the mtns and
get into the Lower Susq. However, the early rise in temps over
places SE of IPT-UNV-AOO will decrease stability and make it
worse/more-likely for flash freezes to occur if heavy snow falls
on the warm pavement and then temps fall. We will taper PoPs
off from 100s W to 40-50 far SE since it may not make measurable
snow past Blue Mtn. Any snow squall warnings will be issued in
addition to the wind advy since the threat for wind gusts 40+KT
exists for much of the day over the bulk of the CWA (mainly
aftn/early evening over the east). As mentioned above...the
strict criteria of 3" of snow is not expected to be met in the
wrn mtns, but the blowing snow, time of day of passage of
strong/severe snow squalls is worth issuance of a wint wx advy
there.

After the front/squalls pass thru, the winds really pick up with
sharp pressure rises. It should also dry out again. But, some
SHSN will linger over the NW. These should die off in the aftn,
but blowing snow could continue to cause problems. Temps fall
for everyone on strong CAA post-fropa. Excellent clearing Sat
night will allow temps to fall into the single digits NW and
lower-mid teens elsewhere. The wind will not go away, so we
won't be looking at temps dropping off as badly as if they would
calm.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Fair wx returns for the second half of the weekend as high
pressure drifts over CPA Sunday morning before migrating off the
Mid Atlc coast Sunday night. As the high pushes offshore, return
flow will usher in milder temps. Temps will warm into the 40s
Sunday afternoon with plenty of sunshine and breezy (but no
longer windy) conditions. Monday looks quite pleasant with
temps warming to the 50s with a mix of sun and clouds and light
winds.

Medium range guidance supports a good chance of rain Tuesday
associated with a wave of low pressure lifting out of the Miss
Valley, then across the eastern Grt Lks. Drier, cooler
conditions should arrive Wednesday, as trailing cold front
clears the area. Focus then shifts to a developing area of low
pressure lifting north from the Gulf Coast. Plenty of
uncertainty with regard to the track of this system. However,
enough agreement in timing among ensemble members to ramp up
POPs Thursday PM. With a blocking high over New England, odds
currently favor at least some wintry precipitation with this
system.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
West northwest winds will continue to gust into the 20s this
afternoon. VFR will prevail in most places through tonight. An
Alberta Clipper pushes across central PA Saturday morning
through early afternoon, with conditions favorable for SHSN and
even stronger/gustier squalls. These will be short- lived, and
will likely decrease in intensity as they move into and out of
the central mtns into the valleys of the SE. Large- scale gusts
will already be in the 30s or higher.

Outlook...

Sun...VFR. 20-25kt wind gusts from 180-210 degrees.

Mon...No sig Wx.

Mon PM-Tues...Deteriorating conditions with RA. Lowest cigs/vis
on Tues. LLWS possible.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
All minor points falling at this point. Te larger rivers will
continue to swell, but no river forecast points look like they
will exceed their respective flood stages. A few points will
linger a few feet below flood for a couple of days. But, we'll
have a couple of days before more rain enters the picture Mon
night and Tues.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Mild and wet conditions on Thursday 2/17 resulted in the
following daily records being set or tied:

BFD
Record high temperature of 54 ties the old record set in
2006 and matched in 2011.

Rainfall of 1.53 inches breaks the previous record of 0.93
inches set in 1961. It was the 3rd-wettest February day on
record (1.57 inches on 2/25/1961 and 1.55 inches on 2/15/1990).

AOO
Rainfall of 0.71 inches breaks the previous record of 0.47
inches set in 1982.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for PAZ012-018-
019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM EST Saturday for
PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033.
Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for PAZ004>006-
010-011-017-024-033.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald/Colbert
AVIATION...DeVoir/RXR/Banghoff
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
133 PM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

PAZ057>059-063>066-191845-
Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
133 PM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

A snow squall is possible during mid-day on Saturday and could cause
dangerous driving conditions.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056-191845-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-
Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-
133 PM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Snow squalls are possible Saturday morning and could cause dangerous
driving conditions.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
120 PM EST FRI FEB 18 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 NE FAIRFIELD          39.80N 77.36W
02/18/2022                   ADAMS              PA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            APPROX 10 TREES DOWN DURING THE OVERNIGHT OR
            EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
133 PM EST FRI FEB 18 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 NNW GARRETT           39.87N 79.07W
02/18/2022                   SOMERSET           PA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN BETWEEN SOMERSET AND
            MEYERSDALE DUE TO STRONG WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

MRC