Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
221 PM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Heat and humidity will peak to end the workweek and begin the
month of July. Expect a few bouts of showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon, tonight and Saturday (across primarily the
southeast half of the state) as a cold front slowly drifts
southeast through the Commonwealth. Dry conditions and
comfortable humidity will return for later Saturday afternoon
and remain with us right through the 4th of July. More showers
and storms will return to the region by Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
1110AM/1510Z: Isolated to scattered convection ongoing from the
Laurel Highlands/south central Alleghenies toward the mid Susq
Valley late this morning. Storms holding below severe limits so
far with ltg and brief downpours. Additional storm clusters
tracking east from far SW PA/PBZ CWA should reach the Laurels
by early afternoon with more storms expected to develop
coincident with afternoon heating/instability. SPC 13Z SWO
update expanded the MRGL risk to include the western 3/4 of the
CWA and they will likely add the rest of the CWA with their
next update at 1630Z. Hot/humid conditions will support robust
MLCAPEs 1500-2500 J/kg with effective bulk shear increasing to
25-35kts. This environment should be supportive of locally
strong/damaging wind threat and some hail.

Previous Discussion Issued: 527 AM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022

Areas of cirrus were noted spreading east across the northwest
half of the state early this morning. Otherwise clear skies and
comfortable temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s were noted
across the northern half of the state, while readings between 65
and 70 degrees were found across the south.

Our extended spell of nice summer weather with minimal clouds
and comfortable humidity will transition quickly to noticeably
higher humidity today as a surge of much higher PWAT air between
1.5 and 2 inches surges NE from the Ohio Valley and Central
Appalachians. Coinciding with this moisture advection will be
increasing llvl convergence and enhanced meso-b scale uvvel with
the approach of the thermally direct right entrance region of a
95KT upper jet, stretched from the Upper Midwest to Southern
Ontario Canada.

High-resolution guidance indicates the potential for some
showers and storms to develop along the Laurel Highlands around
midday (15-16Z) and push east-northeast during the afternoon.
The combination of diurnal heating and moisture advection
should fuel isolated to scattered storms with pockets of SBCAPE
around 2000 j/kg.

Hodographs favor multicell clusters of TSRA today with fairly
weak and unidirectional shear at low levels and moderately
strong veering SW-WSW flow flow aloft. Given areas of PWAT
values in the 1.5-2 inch range, and locations seeing a few TSRA
could stick out on the Dual Pol storm total rain imagery with
over an inch of rain.

Afternoon max temps today will be 3-5F higher than Thursday.
More noticeable will be the rise in dewpoints by 7-12F DOD from
yesterday with it becoming quite sticky over the southern half
of PA where TDs will be in the upper 60s to around 70F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Late today and early tonight, a cold front over the Upper
Midwest and Northern Glakes will drift gradually SE across Lake
Erie and enhance the Lake Breeze that should be located within
10-15 NM south of the I-90 corridor.

The second round of convection concentrated across the NW half
of the CWA will be supported by falling heights and moderately
strong deep layer shear (>= 30kts). This may lead to a few
stronger storms and SPC has maintained a Marginal outlook for
severe weather across northwest PA where isolated damaging wind
gusts and some hail up to to penny size are possible.

An upper level shortwave will cross the region overnight
tonight helping to push the aforementioned slow-moving cold
front farther southeast into the Central Mtns.

A good amount of cloud cover in the deep layer warm advection
pattern ahead of the Cfront and PWATs surging to +1SD, will
should support an increasing probability for showers and
possible t-storms.

Rainfall totals across the area through Saturday morning will
be highest in northwest PA, with basin averages of a quarter to
half and inch likely. Farther south and east, many places will
likely stay dry tonight, however a passing shower or
thunderstorm could bring a quick 0.10-0.25 inch of rain.

Showers along the slow moving cold front should diminish for a
few to several hour period Saturday morning in wake of exiting
shortwave.

Afterward, diurnal heating will lead to the regeneration of
deeper convection Saturday afternoon along and south of the
front that should be located over the SE half of the forecast
area.

This area will be on the southern edge of stronger mid-level
flow/deep layer shear, yielding the chance of organized severe
convection. SPC has maintained its D2 MRGL/SLGT risk SWO
covering the southeast 1/2 of of CPA.

Some brief heavy downpours are also possible coincident with
WPC MRGL ERO covering roughly the SPC SLGT area. Rainfall
totals of up to three quarters of an inch are possible in
southeast PA with a tight gradient farther north and west
along/behind the cold front.

Convection shifts to the southeast Saturday night and out of
CPA as the frontal zone pushes to the south of the MD line. The
latest trends in model guidance continue to favor the cold
front sagging southward more quickly, which would favor
prevailing dry conditions for most fireworks displays on
Saturday night. Cooler/less humid air will return to north
central PA overnight with minTs back down into the mid- upper
50s by Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Strong ridging to the west through the extended, will generally
keep region in a northwest flow through much of the extended
period. This will keep temperatures on the warm, but not hot
side, with both high and low temperatures running a few degrees
above average. This pattern should keep the deep moisture out of
the area, making for more comfortable conditions. Will have to
watch for convective systems in the NW flow through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weak high pressure will keep dry weather across the region with
VFR conditions into Friday morning.

A cold front will still be well to the northwest on Friday, so
any showers and storms would develop within a prefrontal trough
or along terrain features Friday afternoon and evening.
Additional storms will develop closer to the cold front Friday
night into Saturday. We do carry VCSH at many of the TAF sites
starting late Fri.

Outlook...

Fri night-Sat...More numerous showers and storms expected with
mainly MVFR reductions.

Sun...Improvement north, with lingering showers possible south.

Mon-Tue...Mainly VFR except for restrictions possible in
isolated afternoon and evening convection.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Banghoff
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl/Banghoff
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Banghoff
LONG TERM...Jurewicz/Ross
AVIATION...Martin/Colbert

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
1230 PM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022

PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-021630-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Cambria-Somerset-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-
1230 PM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A few strong thunderstorms may produce isolated damaging wind
gusts and possibly some hail this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ036-056>059-063>066-021630-
Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-
Lancaster-
1230 PM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms may produce isolated
damaging wind gusts and possibly some hail this afternoon and
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds,
marginally severe hail, and heavy downpours are possible Saturday
afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ019-025>028-034-035-042-045-046-049>053-021630-
Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-
Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-
1230 PM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms may produce isolated
damaging wind gusts and possibly some hail this afternoon and
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing
damaging winds and marginally severe hail are possible Saturday
afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

MRS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1153 AM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022

PAZ033-034-011615-
Bedford PA-Somerset PA-
1153 AM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN BEDFORD AND
NORTHEASTERN SOMERSET COUNTIES THROUGH 1215 PM EDT...

At 1152 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Windber, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Ogletown around 1155 AM EDT.
  Osterburg, St. Clairsville and Blue Knob State Park around 1215 PM
  EDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include New Paris, Blue Knob
Ski Resort and Woodbury.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4023 7885 4025 7879 4024 7866 4026 7864
      4028 7865 4031 7856 4029 7850 4025 7845
      4030 7843 4028 7838 4009 7832 4004 7880
TIME...MOT...LOC 1552Z 257DEG 24KT 4016 7874

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Jurewicz

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1245 PM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022

PAZ024-025-033-034-011715-
Bedford PA-Somerset PA-Blair PA-Cambria PA-
1245 PM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN BEDFORD...NORTHEASTERN
SOMERSET...SOUTHERN BLAIR AND SOUTHWESTERN CAMBRIA COUNTIES THROUGH
115 PM EDT...

At 1245 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Portage to near Windber to 12 miles
southeast of Belmont. Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Portage and Blue Knob State Park around 1255 PM EDT.
  Queen, Lilly and Ski Gap around 100 PM EDT.
  Bedford, St. Clairsville and Osterburg around 105 PM EDT.
  New Enterprise around 110 PM EDT.
  Hollidaysburg, Duncansville and Martinsburg around 115 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Tunnelhill, Spring
Hill, Cassandra, Hopewell and New Paris.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4006 7885 4024 7877 4043 7890 4052 7831
      4036 7821 4030 7826 4023 7824 4018 7817
      4001 7824
TIME...MOT...LOC 1645Z 267DEG 34KT 4038 7879 4025 7870 4014 7875

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Jurewicz

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