Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
250 PM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal complex will bring showers and thunderstorms to the
region through much of tonight.

Showers will exit the region to the east Thursday morning. High
pressure will then build in through the first part of the
weekend, to bring rain-free and seasonable summer weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
240 pm update... Convection continues to gradually evolve along
the N-S boundary across central PA late this afternoon. A
combination of moderate-strong instability (ML CAPE of 2000-3000
j/kg) and marginally conducive lower-level and deep-layered
shear will lead to a threat of at least isolated severe storms
into the early evening.

The combination of seasonally high precipitable waters (AOA
1.7"), continued moisture convergence into the previously
mentioned boundary, and small MBE vectors (less than 10 kt) to
suggest the possibility of N-S training, all yield the potential
for locally very heavy rainfall (point totals of 2-4"). Although
elevated flash flood guidance values would tend to mitigate the
overall flash flood threat, we'll have to watch for the
potential of high rainfall rates in a compressed period of time.
As a result, the ongoing Flash Flood Watch basically near and
west of the I-99/US-15 corridor will continue into the evening.

Later tonight, consensus of HREF members points to a
reorientation of the band of showers farther east into eastern
PA. These showers are still likely to impact the Susquehanna
Valley and the western Poconos for a good part of the night.

Lows by daybreak will range in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Lingering showers over eastern Pennsylvania will slowly diminish
as large scale subsidence will start to build over the region.
Clouds should start to clear out by Thursday afternoon.
Temperatures on Thursday will feel cooler than Wednesday, as
high temperatures will only get into the upper 70s.

Expect dry and warmer weather for Friday, with high pressure
overhead and high temperatures in the 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
All guidance supports fair weather Friday night and Saturday,
as surface high builds east into the region. Model 850mb temps
support seasonable temperatures Friday, then a warmer return
southwest flow is likely Saturday, as surface high slips off the
east coast.

Heat and humidity notch up Sunday ahead of an approaching cold
front, which should be accompanied by a good chance of
convection Sunday PM based on latest ensemble plumes. Lingering
convection is possible Monday (mainly southeast Pa), depending
on timing of the front. Medium range guidance then supports a
fairly high confidence of fair and cool conditions Monday night
into Tuesday associated with the arrival of high pressure.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18z update... Developing showers and thunderstorms will bring at
least periodic restrictions to KUNV, KAOO, KMDT, and perhaps
KBFD during the late afternoon hours.

By this evening, showers will become more persistent at KIPT,
KMDT, and KLNS, with associated restrictions.

Elsewhere later tonight, fairly widespread stratus and fog will
lead to the likelihood of IFR restrictions.

Gradual improvement back towards MVFR and VFR is expected for
most of the central PA terminal sites Thursday morning. KMDT and
KLNS will probably see the slowest improvement, as showers exit
these sites last.

Outlook...

Fri-Sat...Mainly VFR.

Sun-Mon...Restrictions possible in showers/t-storm.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A daily record high temperature of 89 degrees was set at
Bradford on June 21st. This broke the previous record high of
88 degrees set in 1991.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for PAZ006-012-018-
019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049-050-056-063-064.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Jurewicz
NEAR TERM...Jurewicz
SHORT TERM...Buvala
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Dangelo
AVIATION...Jurewicz
CLIMATE...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
138 PM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022

PAZ042-231745-
Sullivan-
138 PM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Isolated thunderstorms may produce locally strong wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ006-012-018-019-025>028-034>037-041-045-046-049-050-056-063-064-
231745-
Potter-Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Blair-
Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-
Northern Lycoming-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-
Perry-Cumberland-Adams-
138 PM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 400 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ004-005-053-058-059-066-231745-
Warren-McKean-Columbia-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Lancaster-
138 PM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated strong thunderstorms with gusty winds and heavy rainfall
are possible on this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ010-011-017-024-033-051-052-057-065-231745-
Elk-Cameron-Clearfield-Cambria-Somerset-Montour-Northumberland-
Dauphin-York-
138 PM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 400 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Locally heavy rainfall is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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