Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
912 PM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds and the chance for showers and thunderstorms will
increase from south to north overnight across the region. Some
of the storms could be strong to severe over the southern third
of PA and localized heavy rain of up to 2 inches in just a few
hours is possible. Rain will end early Thursday morning and be
followed by partial sunshine and breezy conditions. Rain- free
conditions will end the week and precede another period of rain
on Saturday. Temperatures are forecast to remain near to
slightly below early June climatology through the weekend before
trending warmer/above average early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1004 mb sfc low pressure near KZZV at 01z will track ENE and
cross Central PA late tonight. This low will deepen/intensify
as it moves eastward in response to amplifying shortwave
trough/height falls lifting northeast through the lower Great
Lakes and strengthening upper jet streak/upper diffluence
downstream of the trough axis. It will also help to lift a
warm front slowly north to near I-80 during the predawn hours
and allow sfc based CAPE of over 1000 j/kg to advect into the
southern 1/3 to 1/2 of the CWA as PWs rise to 1-1.5+ inches with
850mb flow increases from the S/SW. All of these synoptic
ingredients will lead to a quick- hitting ~6-8hr period of
moderate to heavy rainfall tonight into early Thursday morning,
with localized strong to potentially severe TSRA over approx the
southern 1/2 of the CWA. 01km EHIs will rise to near 1 M2/S2
over southern PA late this evening supporting some
discrete supercell stricture/potentially strongly rotating
updrafts, especially near and south of the PA turnpike.

Previous Disc with still valid forecast points.

Flooding risk factors to take into account include:
1) recent dryness: 14-day rainfall 25-50% of normal with
greatest deficits over the southeast zones
2) short temporal duration of +RA due to fast storm motions
3) 1/3/6hr FFG values are rather high: 2-3"/2-4"/3-5"
4) rain rates in the 1-2"/hr range are possible with uncertainty
in location of heaviest rain
5) WPC MRGL risk ERO with SLGT clipping southeast Lancaster Co.

When combining all of these risk factors, we think the overall
flooding risk is low and likely confined to urban corridors where
enhanced rain rates/runoff could cause some localized water issues.

It will be a mild night with minTs in the mid-upper 50s/60s NW/SE
or +5-10F above normal. Rain should quickly exit the CWA around 12Z
based on blended hires ensemble guidance with leftover clouds
especially over the western mtns as flow turns westerly.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Conditions will dry out nicely on Thursday with clouds breaking
for some sun and a noticeable westerly breeze (wind gusts 20-30
mph) advecting drier air back into CPA. There could be an
isolated shower develop into the afternoon across the western
Alleghenies, but overall the balance of the day will be dry.
MaxT will be near/below average in the 65-80F range NW-SE.

Winds gradually subside Thursday night as high pressure migrates
eastward into the central Appalachians. Look for partly cloudy
to mainly clear skies with minTs in the 50-60F range NW-SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
In the wake of the departing low pressure system, Friday will be
slightly cooler than seasonal as high pressure works its way
into our area. Expect mostly sunny skies and drier feeling air
for most of Friday before another wave of low pressure
approaches PA for the weekend.

Rain chances increase Friday night into Saturday as a shortwave
rounds the base of an upper trough. This shortwave will likely
spawn a coastal low, as the weakening primary low approaches
PA. Model difference with respect to track of the coastal low
are leading to a fair amount of uncertainty with regard to POPS
and rain amounts in the Friday night to Saturday time frame.
Regardless, rain and thunderstorm chances are increasing for
Saturday, especially in the Eastern half of our CWA closet to
the coastal low. The intensity and exact QPF amounts are still
to be ironed out with future model runs.

Guidance supports more chances of rain showers and afternoon
thunderstorms Sunday and Monday as we are still under the
influence of upper level troughing and unsettledness.

Later in the long term period, an upper ridge begins to progress
eastward towards us with warmer and more humid conditions. As of
now, temperatures do not appear to be anomalously warm but
closer to what you would expect for mid-June summer weather.
With the increased warmth and moisture mid-next, isolated
afternoon thunderstorms will be possible across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Chances for RA/TSRA increase from south to north through the
overnight hours. MVFR to IFR restrictions likely overnight, with
the potential for periods of LIFR conditions in +RA. Low end
MVFR lingers Thursday morning with scattered SHRA, then clearing
out later Thursday to VFR.

Outlook...

Thu...AM showers/reduced cigs, then VFR.

Fri...No sig wx expected.

Sat...SHRA/TSRA showers. Restrictions likely.

Sun...SHRA/TSRA possible.

Mon...SHRA/TSRA possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Wagner
AVIATION...Lambert/Banghoff/Wagner

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
259 PM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-091900-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-
Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Adams-York-Lancaster-
259 PM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Periods of heavy rain tonight could lead to isolated flooding
particularly in localized areas that can experience rapid runoff
such as urban corridors and low lying/poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

MRS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
524 PM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022

PAZ035-082215-
Fulton PA-
524 PM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN FULTON COUNTY
THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

At 523 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hancock, moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Warfordsburg around 555 PM EDT.
  Locust Grove, Needmore and Big Cove Tannery around 615 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in State College PA.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 3991 7821 3988 7797 3977 7805 3972 7810
      3972 7832
TIME...MOT...LOC 2123Z 199DEG 16KT 3963 7830

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Lambert

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
721 PM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022

PAZ034-090000-
Bedford PA-
721 PM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN BEDFORD COUNTY THROUGH
800 PM EDT...

At 721 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cumberland, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bedford, Clearville, Everett, Buffalo Mills, Lake Gordon, Manns
Choice and Rainsburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 3972 7873 4007 7862 3998 7826 3972 7849
TIME...MOT...LOC 2321Z 208DEG 29KT 3975 7861

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Lambert

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
913 PM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022

PAZ033-090215-
Somerset-
913 PM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN SOMERSET COUNTY
THROUGH 11 PM...

At 09:10 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong to severe
thunderstorms in southwestern Pennsylvania, northern West
Virginia, and northwestern Maryland. These storms have a history
of producing damaging wind and quarter sized hail. Conditions are
also marginally favorable for an isolated tornado.

Stay alert to changing weather conditions and have a way to
receive warnings.

Colbert/Lambert

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