Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
609 AM EDT Mon May 16 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Thunderstorms, some severe, will sweep east across the
Commonwealth late this morning through the mid afternoon hours,
along and just in advance of a relatively strong cold front.

Seasonably cooler and drier conditions will return Tuesday into
Wednesday. Warmer and more humid air will return to the region
later this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Expect low clouds and areas of dense fog throughout the Central
Valleys and Middle Susq Region early today with just a few
isolated showers drifting NNE across the Susq Valley and
Western Poconos. the fog is dense and widespread enough to
warrant a Dense Fog Advisory through 13Z today.

Low temps will be mild and well above climo with lows ranging
from the mid 50s across the Central and Northern part of the
state, to low 60s in the Southeast.

The big attention getter today will be a vigorous upstream
trough and associated expanding/intensifying area of
convection approaching from the Ohio Valley and reaching the
NW counties of our CWA around daybreak.

Latest Hires model guidance has a first area of NNE-moving.
discrete showers and thunderstorms moving into our western
zones between 13-14Z followed within 60-90 minutes by a QLCS
feature that will likely contain several distinct bow echoes
and localized wind damage from 60-70 mph west-southwesterly wind
gusts. This convective feature will exit Lancaster County by
21Z.

It appears this line will bring the highest threat for severe
weather as it moves east. The convective feature should reach
peak severe potential across the eastern zones during the mid
afternoon hours.

There could be several damaging wind reports and maybe even a
tornado, mainly across the Lower Susq Valley, where storms will
arrive later in the day and low level shear will be highest. 06Z
NAM indicates a channel of 1.5-2 M2/S2 0-1km EHIs accompanying
the most intense convection late this morning and early this
afternoon.

There is some potential for another line of convection to
develop behind the first one later in the afternoon and evening,
but the question is how much of the low level instability can
recover by then.

The key factor for today will be the more robust deep-layer shear
profiles of 30 to 35 kts (0-3KM) favoring organized, rather
fast- moving storms and attendant risk for locally damaging
winds. Some discrete transient supercells are possible in
advance of the cold front while more of BKN convective line/QLCS
structure is likely late this morning and this afternoon.

High temp today will range from the upper 60s NW to near 80F in
the far SE. Noticeably cooler and drier air will start to
filter into Central PA tonight behind the cold front. Lows are
expected to be in the upper 40s NW to mid 50s SE (still above
climo but cooler than Sunday night) with a refreshing westerly
breeze.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Late afternoon storms quickly exit stage right by this evening,
with breezy cooler and less humid air mass overspreading
Central PA. Mins get slightly chilly again ranging from the mid
40s north to the lower to middle 50s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A reinforcing cold front and shot of drier air aloft will push
through the Commonwealth on Tuesday as a ridge of high pressure
builds southeast from Canada. As such, the middle of the week
will be cooler than this weekend as lower heights remain in
place. Highs will range from the the mid 60s to low 70s. The
markedly drier airmass will allow sfc dewpoints to dip into the
mid 30s Wednesday morning.

By Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, a return to warmer and
unsettled weather looks likely with quasi-zonal flow eventually
looking to back more southwesterly aloft. A warm front draped
across the Ohio Valley should lift north through Pennsylvania
and bring a marked surge in temperatures and humidity into the
end of the week. Widespread temperatures in the 80s are
possible, which would be the warmest air of the season to date.

With increased moisture and temperatures, daily afternoon
thunderstorm activity should resume late in the week through the
weekend as well.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Patchy valley fog should lift by 13Z-15Z in most locations per
latest NAMNest and LAMP guidance. Focus then shifts to a
potent cold front and associated band of thunderstorms, which
will push east across the region during the late morning and
afternoon hours. Brief visibility reductions and gusty winds
could accompany the storms, which are most likely around 15Z
over the Allegheny Plateau (KBFD/KJST), and around 19Z over the
Lower Susq Valley (KMDT/KLNS).

Bufkit soundings support 20-25kt northwesterly wind gusts
behind the front late today, then diminishing winds overnight.
Residual low level moisture ascending the Alleghenies will
likely result in lingering MVFR cigs from KBFD south through
KJST into early evening. Otherwise, expect widespread VFR
conditions returning late today, as drier air works into the
region from the Great Lakes.

Outlook...

Tue...No sig impacts expected.

Wed...Evening low cigs/rain possible, mainly W Mtns.

Thu...AM rain/low cigs possible, mainly N Mtns.

Fri...AM low cigs possible N Mtns.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ012-
017>019-025>028-034-035-037-041-042-045-046-049>053.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Lambert
NEAR TERM...Lambert
SHORT TERM...Lambert
LONG TERM...Gutierrez
AVIATION...Fitzgerald

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
907 AM EDT Mon May 16 2022

PAZ024-033-161330-
Somerset PA-Cambria PA-
907 AM EDT Mon May 16 2022

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL SOMERSET AND
WESTERN CAMBRIA COUNTIES THROUGH 930 AM EDT...

At 906 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Homer City to near Westmont. Movement was
northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Johnstown, Westmont, Windber, Ebensburg, Belmont, Nanty-Glo, Portage,
Northern Cambria, Geistown, Southmont, Vinco, Dale, East Conemaugh,
Salix-Beauty Line Park, Davidsville, Beaverdale-Lloydell, Paint,
Jerome, South Fork and Carrolltown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4041 7897 4073 7880 4072 7877 4062 7869
      4033 7862 4029 7865 4017 7909 4022 7911
TIME...MOT...LOC 1306Z 234DEG 28KT 4053 7917 4042 7908 4024 7904

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Gutierrez

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