Severe Thunderstorm Warning 128, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
140 PM EDT Sun Jul 24 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front over the Great Lakes will push southeast across
Pennsylvania late tonight and Monday. High pressure will build
over the region Tuesday, than a warm front will lift into the
region by midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Boundary which came on-shore an hour or so ago may be
responsible for the current cell development over NWrn PA. Thus
far, only one decent cell over PBZ's nrn counties has be beefy
enough to grow severe. Expect some increase in coverage thru the
next hour or two. If the sfc-based CIN and warmish mid-levels
can be eroded enough, we may be in need of a watch across our
nrn tier or two of counties. SPC MCD covers that portion of our
area.

Cold front won't arrive for 12 or so hours in the NW, but that
continues to look like the highest coverage/chance for storms. A
nearly solid line is anticipated with/just ahead of the front,
but dir shear is higher in the warm sector. Supercells still
possible with mean storm motions from 240deg, and deep layer
shear from the NW >30kts. RAP and HRRR both want to pop a few
discrete cells over wrn PA not far from the CWA border around
noon, and roll them across the northern half of the area this
aftn. lake breeze (or perhaps just the current remnant boundary
moving on-shore now) might contribute to convective initiation
today as well over the NW this aftn.

Cooling of boundary layer should result in a diminishing risk
of severe weather (early?) this evening. More storms are
expected later tonight as the front nears and shear increases
again. The high PWATs and repeated cell passages which are
possible could make some minor flooding. But, cell
speed/residence time could keep the threat for more-serious
(flash) flooding low. Expect the front to drop about half way
through the area overnight. As it does so, it will be working
into more stable air. This should decrease the severity of the
storms, and coverage should also become more spotty. Temps will
stay up above normal for one more night, but cooler air starts
to filter into the northern third of the area overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
Convection should ramp up along the cold front, as it pushes
into southeast PA Monday afternoon, while drier/cooler air
continues to take over across the northwestern counties.
Although cloud cover should hold temperatures down, strong mid
level flow and associated deep layer shear, combined with
dewpoints in the low 70s, should support organized convection
and possible isolated supercells across parts of the Lower Susq
Valley. Many models drop the rain south of the area by sunset,
but lingering a chc in Lancaster Co is always a good idea. Maxes
will be 10F lower than Sunday in the N and W and 5F or more
cooler in the SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Overall just minor changes to the longer term grids.

High pressure and associated dry air mass should support fair
and seasonable conditions Monday night and Tuesday. However, a
stalling cold front south of Pennsylvania will remain just close
enough to warrant the slight chance of a shower over the
southern tier counties into Tuesday.

Went a bit lower in some spots for POPS Wednesday into Thursday.
Upper level support with this system looking a bit weaker now.

Went a tad cooler across the southeast Wednesday night.

Slightly less humid air and mainly dry weather is likely to
close out the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR at 15Z this morning across all airfields. Rounds of scattered
SHRA/TSRA are expected this afternoon and evening with the
potential for gusty winds in any TSRA, especially at BFD. The
first round of storms will be after 18Z, then the second round
will be after 3Z. Expect MVFR to IFR restrictions in SHRA/TSRA.

High density altitude will be a concern again due to the heat.
Expect to need longer takeoff distances.

SHRA/TSRA will continue through the night and into Monday with a
CFROPA.

Outlook...

Mon...SHRA/TSRA, especially SE, with the passage of a cold front

Tues...Mainly VFR.

Wed...Mainly VFR, TSRA/restrictions poss W.

Wed night-Thurs...Numerous SHRA/TSRA and flight restrictions
expected.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As the heat wave continues, especially across the Middle and
Lower Susquehanna Valley, record-challenging temperatures are
expected on Sunday July 24th. Here are the current records:

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR JULY 24TH

Altoona (AOO)             95F  (2016)
Bradford (BFD)            87F  (2001)
Harrisburg (MDT)          96F* (1965, 1999, 2001)
State College (STCP1)     100F (1934)
Williamsport (IPT)        96F  (2001)

RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR JULY 25TH (Sunday night)

Harrisburg (MDT)          77F* (1965)

*indicates forecast high/low Sunday and Sunday night would tie
 or break the current record

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for PAZ036-053-056-
057-059-063>066.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Martin
AVIATION...Wagner
CLIMATE...

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