Wind Advisory 3, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1110 PM CST Wed Jan 19 2022

.AVIATION /06Z TAFs/...

A cold front is currently progressing through the CWA and should be
through all area TAF sites by 07Z. Northerly winds behind the front
will be 20-25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots possible through the
morning hours. Northerly winds are expected to remain at 15-20 knots
through the day with gusts diminishing in the afternoon hours. MVFR
ceilings are expected to develop across most of the area by 12Z but
conditions should remain dry through 18Z. After 18Z, areas of
precipitation will develop from west to east and increase in
coverage heading into the evening hours. Precipitation is currently
expected to start out initially as rain with FZRA/PL mixing in,
possibly as early as 21Z. Frozen precipitation is expected to
continue developing tomorrow evening with the highest likelihood
after 06Z. For this TAF package, included PROB30 FZRA at the eastern
sites where there is greater uncertainty in the timing and
likelihood of a change over to mixed precipitation. Included a
prevailing mix of RA/PL at COT and LRD where there is more
confidence in the temperature profile and timing of mixed
precipitation.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 401 PM CST Wed Jan 19 2022/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...

Cold front moving through central Texas at this time will continue
surging south and move into the northern counties by 10 PM and
expect the front will be through the area shortly after midnight.
Isolated to scattered convection will be possible from along the
coast into the coastal waters as the front pushes into the area
tonight.

Expect there will be a lull in precipitation by Thursday morning
with most of the activity offshore early. Isentropic lift will
steadily increase around the 300K level especially by the
afternoon as a weak mid level short wave trough moves out of
Mexico into the region. Areas of light rain will develop by the
afternoon. With cloud cover, continued low level cold air
advection and light rain developing, highs will be in the lower to
mid 40s with temperatures falling into the 30s by late afternoon.

A short wave trough over northern Mexico into southwest Texas
Thursday evening will move southeast into the Rio Grande plains by
early Friday morning. Large scale lift will increase in the right
entrance region of the upper level jet along with warm air
advection occurring around 70H. Expect areas of precipitation to
increase in coverage Thursday night as the short wave trough
approaches. Not comes the tough part, what type of precipitation
will it be. Models continue to show shallow subfreezing layer
through 925 mbs advancing south into the area Thursday night
while a warm layer from 3-10 kft holds most of the night even over
the Brush Country. Expect most of the activity will become
freezing rain as surface temperatures fall to freezing in the
evening, but could be mixed with sleet at times especially from
the inland Coastal Bend into the Brush Country. Forecast soundings
show the potential toward daybreak Friday of a transition to snow
over the Brush Country. Models continue to increase the amount of
QPF during the period Thursday night. With warm ground temperatures,
it will take awhile for ice accumulations to start. But with the
amount of precipitation and duration from late Thursday night into
Friday morning, could see accumulations of slightly above a tenth
of an inch across the southern Brush Country to the Coastal Bend
with lighter amounts across the northern counties. Upgraded to a
Winter Storm Warning for all of south Texas except the islands as
well as the Freeze Warning from 03Z Friday until 18Z Friday.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...

Friday morning will be cold with a chance for freezing rain and
sleet continuing across South Texas. With freezing temperatures and
winds 5 to 10 mph, a Wind Chill Advisory looks likely for Friday
morning for all but the islands. Weak mid-level ridging will build
in Friday afternoon, drying us out and ending precipitation chances.
High temperatures on Friday will top out in the 40s for most of the
area. By Saturday morning, all but the Coastal Bend will be at or
just below freezing. Fortunately, by this time, winds will have
become light so wind chills should not be a widespread issue.

A slow warming trend will begin through the weekend, with highs only
reaching into the 50s through Monday, then into the 60s through the
middle of the week. A mid-level low over Baja California is expected
to open into a wave, then move across the Southern Plains early next
week, bringing back chances for rain Sunday night through Monday
night. Drier conditions will redevelop through the middle of the
week as the low pushes east of the area.

MARINE...

Onshore flow weaken this evening as a cold front approaches. The
front will move offshore after midnight tonight with very strong
northerly winds developing behind it. A Gale Warning is in effect
late tonight through Thursday evening. Scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms will be possible along the front tonight. Areas of
light rain will develop Thursday afternoon and increase to
widespread rain Thursday night over the coastal waters.

Strong offshore flow with occasional gusts to gale force will
continue over the waters through early Friday morning. Light to
moderate rain is expected Thursday night through Friday night, with
the potential for freezing rain and sleet. Mariners should use
caution in any conditions that could result in ice developing on any
surfaces. A generally moderate to occasionally strong northeasterly
wind will continue through the weekend with rain chances return
early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    40  42  31  45  35  /  10  60  90  50  10
Victoria          38  40  30  47  30  /  30  40  60  10  10
Laredo            42  44  31  47  32  /   0  40  80  30  10
Alice             41  43  30  45  31  /  10  50  90  40  10
Rockport          42  43  32  48  39  /  20  50  90  40  10
Cotulla           38  41  30  51  31  /   0  50  50  10  10
Kingsville        43  44  31  45  33  /  10  50  90  60  10
Navy Corpus       44  45  33  47  43  /  10  70  90  60  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Freeze Warning from 9 PM Thursday to noon CST Friday For the
     following zones: Bee...Coastal Aransas...Coastal Calhoun...
     Coastal Kleberg...Coastal Nueces...Coastal Refugio...
     Coastal San Patricio...Duval...Goliad...Inland Calhoun...
     Inland Kleberg...Inland Nueces...Inland Refugio...Inland
     San Patricio...Jim Wells...La Salle...Live Oak...McMullen...
     Victoria...Webb.

     Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM Thursday to noon CST Friday For
     the following zones: Bee...Coastal Aransas...Coastal
     Calhoun...Coastal Kleberg...Coastal Nueces...Coastal
     Refugio...Coastal San Patricio...Duval...Goliad...Inland
     Calhoun...Inland Kleberg...Inland Nueces...Inland Refugio...
     Inland San Patricio...Jim Wells...La Salle...Live Oak...
     McMullen...Victoria...Webb.

GM...Gale Warning from 3 AM Thursday to midnight CST Thursday night
     For the following zones: Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to
     Port Aransas out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas
     to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Baffin
     Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from Port
     Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 3 AM to noon CST Thursday For the following
     zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas...
     Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor.

&&

TWH/91...AVIATION

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
342 PM CST Wed Jan 19 2022

TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447-201200-
La Salle-McMullen-Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Webb-Duval-
Jim Wells-Inland Kleberg-Inland Nueces-Inland San Patricio-
Coastal Aransas-Inland Refugio-Inland Calhoun-Coastal Kleberg-
Coastal Nueces-Coastal San Patricio-Aransas Islands-
Coastal Refugio-Coastal Calhoun-Kleberg Islands-Nueces Islands-
Calhoun Islands-
342 PM CST Wed Jan 19 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

A strong cold front will move through south Texas tonight with
strong northerly winds developing behind it.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

A Winter Storm Warning is in effect from Thursday evening through
Friday morning for minor ice accumulations across much of South
Texas.

A Freeze Warning is in effect from Thursday evening through Friday
morning for much of South Texas. Wind chill values near 20 degrees
are also expected.

Freezing temperatures and wind chill values near 20 degrees are
possible Saturday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-201200-
Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas-
Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-
342 PM CST Wed Jan 19 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for the Middle Texas
Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

A strong cold front will move through the area tonight with gale
force wind gusts developing behind it. A Gale Warning is in effect.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of the cold
front tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

A Gale Warning is in effect through Thursday evening across the Bays
and Gulf waters. Small Craft Advisory conditions are then expected
to continue through Friday.

TMT/LS