Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
400 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2022

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...

A cold front knocking on the northern border of our CWA is moving
very slowly southward across South Texas. Showers and thunderstorms
have developed ahead of this boundary across the inland Coastal
Plains and Brush Country likely with combination of the
seabreeze. Coverage is expected to increase across the area
overnight. Recent LAPS analysis shows CAPE near 2500 J/kg along
the coast to 3500 J/kg over the Coastal Plains, along with a
minimal cap. Therefore, any lifting mechanism with this moist of
an airmass, PWATs greater than 1.75" (around 99th percentile),
will likely lead to convection. The NE to SW orientated boundary
along with a slow LCL-EL cloud layer mean wind from the SW will
promote an MCS structure with a broken line. Right now, the front
is progged to reach the coast by the early evening, between 7 to 9
PM and then remain rather stationary into Tuesday morning. The
entire CWA remains under a marginal risk for severe storms with a
primary threat for large hail as CAPE values remain high, sfc-6km
shear over 40 knots and mid-level lapse rates steepen over the
western portion of the CWA.

An 850mb LLJ strengthens this evening into the overnight hours,
providing an additional source of lift. The combination of slow
moving storms, near stationary boundary, and a strengthening LLJ,
could lead to localized flooding with training over the same area.
HREF probabilities are showing rain rates of 1-2"/hr with as high as
3"/hr at times. Flash flood guidance remains significant with 6-hr
FFG ranging from 4-7" for majority of the area with higher
thresholds over the inland Coastal Plains and Brush Country. Expect
general storm total QPF from this afternoon through Tuesday morning
to range from 1-3" with isolated amounts up to 5" that could lead to
localized flash flooding. It is important to note the flood prone
areas at this time; southern La Salle from last night storm (FFG
2- 3") and the burn scars in western Kleberg County and
northeastern La Salle between Los Angeles and Fowlerton. There is
a marginal risk of excessive rainfall from WPC for all of South
Texas.

The front hugs the Lower to Middle Texas Coast through the morning
on Tuesday and along with surface to low-level inverter troughing,
will allow for numerous showers and a few thunderstorms to continue
over portions of the area, especially the southern half. Expect the
front to dissipate through the day, pushing westward along with the
afternoon seabreeze, diminishing rain chances to silent PoPs by the
evening. Kept 20 to 30 PoPs over the western Brush Country and Rio
Grande Plains where surface moisture convergence could remain
sufficient enough to squeeze out a few more showers.

Lows tonight will not feel much cooler with the rain and clouds
persisting, ranging from the mid 60s inland to around 70 along the
coast. Highs will be limited to the 70s on Tuesday due to the same
reasons. Tuesday night will cool just a tad with low in the low
to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...

Deterministic runs depict a quasi-zonal upper pattern over the
CONUS, with a flat ridge developing over the SCNTRL CONUS early in
the period. Sufficient CAPE/limited CIN/above normal PWAT values
(NAM deterministic run) suggest isold/sct convection Wednesday
afternoon, mainly over the WRN CWA. A upper disturbance is then
predicted to enter the West Coast late Thursday, then move slowly
EWD over the Rockies and CNTRL/NRN Plains Friday/Saturday, before
lifting slowly NEWD across the NRN Plains/Great Lakes Sunday, while
a weak upper system moves across the SRN Plains/TX late
Sunday/Monday. Will forecast isolated convection for Sunday. The
foregoing upper pattern will be conducive to deepening low pressure
over West Texas/SRN Plains, resulting in increase onshore flow later
in the period. Warmer temperatures later in the period, with max
Heat Index values Saturday afternoon, yet below 105F.

&&

.MARINE...

Moderate east to southeasterly flow continues tonight before a cold
front moves through the region late overnight to daybreak Tuesday
ahead of moderate to occasionally strong northeast winds. Occasional
Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible Tuesday. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon will increase in coverage
late tonight ahead of the front and continue throughout most of
Tuesday. Greatest coverage is expected late overnight into Tuesday
morning. Northeast flow decreases to moderate Tuesday night.
Increasing onshore flow beginning Wednesday/Thursday, with Small
Craft Advisory conditions by Friday. Isolated convection may occur
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    69  75  66  81  68  /  70  80  20  20   0
Victoria          65  73  60  81  64  /  60  40  10  10   0
Laredo            66  72  65  83  68  /  90  70  40  40  10
Alice             67  75  64  84  65  /  70  70  30  30   0
Rockport          68  78  67  81  70  /  60  60  20  10   0
Cotulla           64  72  64  85  68  /  70  70  30  30  10
Kingsville        68  75  65  81  66  /  70  70  30  30   0
Navy Corpus       70  76  69  78  71  /  70  80  20  20   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

EMF/94...SHORT TERM
WC/87...LONG TERM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
406 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2022

TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447-262115-
La Salle-McMullen-Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Webb-Duval-
Jim Wells-Inland Kleberg-Inland Nueces-Inland San Patricio-
Coastal Aransas-Inland Refugio-Inland Calhoun-Coastal Kleberg-
Coastal Nueces-Coastal San Patricio-Aransas Islands-
Coastal Refugio-Coastal Calhoun-Kleberg Islands-Nueces Islands-
Calhoun Islands-
406 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected the rest of this
afternoon and tonight over much of South Texas.

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms the rest of
today and tonight over much of South Texas. In addition to
locally heavy rain, thunderstorms could produce large hail and
high winds.

There is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall this afternoon and
tonight. Locally heavy rain could lead to localized flash
flooding.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents today and tonight along
Gulf-facing beaches.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Scattered thunderstorms continue through Tuesday evening becoming
isolated to scattered on Wednesday.

GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275-262115-
Baffin Bay and Upper Laguna Madre-Corpus Christi and Nueces Bays-
Copano, Aransas, and Redfish Bays-
San Antonio, Mesquite, and Espiritu Santo Bays-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-
406 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for the Middle Texas
Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Isolated thunderstorms this afternoon will become more numerous
late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Occasional Small Craft Advisory conditions will be possible
Tuesday, as well as Thursday night through Friday. Persistent
Small Craft Advisory conditions are then expected Friday night
through Saturday night.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are possible over the coastal
waters Monday into Tuesday morning, becoming scattered Tuesday
afternoon, then isolated Tuesday night through Wednesday. Greatest
coverage over the southern coastal waters.

EMF/WC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
447 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2022

TXZ231-232-241-244-252230-
Live Oak TX-Jim Wells TX-Inland San Patricio TX-Bee TX-
447 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern San
Patricio, north central Jim Wells, southeastern Live Oak and south
central Bee Counties through 530 PM CDT...

At 446 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Argenta, or 8 miles north of Mathis, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mathis, Skidmore, Lake City, Argenta, Lagarto, Mount Lucas, Dinero,
Tynan, Lakeside, Lake Corpus Christi and Pernitas Point.

This includes Interstate 37 between mile markers 34 and 49.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2823 9802 2834 9778 2818 9763 2800 9795
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 333DEG 8KT 2822 9783

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TMT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
504 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2022

TXZ230-231-240-241-252245-
Live Oak TX-Jim Wells TX-McMullen TX-Duval TX-
504 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Duval,
southeastern McMullen, northwestern Jim Wells and southwestern Live
Oak Counties through 545 PM CDT...

At 504 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Rancho De La Parita, or 15 miles north of San Diego, moving southeast
at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Tecalote, Rosita and Rancho De La Parita.

This includes the following highways...
 US Highway 281 between mile markers 660 and 668.
 US Highway 59 between mile markers 744 and 754.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2807 9848 2811 9823 2783 9799 2773 9847
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 332DEG 14KT 2797 9831

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

TMT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
510 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2022

TXZ233-234-252300-
Victoria TX-Goliad TX-
510 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Victoria and
northeastern Goliad Counties through 600 PM CDT...

At 509 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Oak Village, or 10 miles west of Victoria, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Victoria, Guadalupe, Fannin, Victoria Colony Creek Country Club,
Schroeder, Victoria Detar Hospital North, Victoria Riverside Park,
Coleto Creek Park, Victoria College, Victoria Mall, Saxet Lakes,
Brentwood Subdivision, Oak Village, Victoria Regional Airport, Ball
Airport Area, Downtown Victoria and Bloomington.

This includes the following highways...
 US Highway 59 between mile markers 632 and 656.
 US Highway 77 between mile markers 570 and 588.
 US Highway 87 between mile markers 804 and 818.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2868 9725 2886 9725 2894 9692 2866 9689
TIME...MOT...LOC 2209Z 265DEG 13KT 2879 9715

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TMT

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