Gale Warning 16, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1149 AM CST Wed Dec 21 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Dec 21 2022

Mostly cloudy skies will start out our day but clouds will begin
to decrease after a shortwave moves across the area. Temperatures
will still be cool today, with highs in the upper 50s and low 60s.
Expect chilly temperatures tonight but we may actually get to see
some stars as cloud cover continues to decrease.

The "show" will begin on Thursday afternoon/evening. After a
relatively warm day (highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s), a cold
front is expected to come screaming into South Texas. While model
agreement remains fairly good, there are a few very minor
differences in timing. The NBM appears to be fairly good but,
with this type of air mass barreling south, elected to blend in
model guidance that pushes the front south a little faster, with
the front reaching the area around 21Z. Temperatures will plummet
Thursday evening as winds shift to the north and increase.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Dec 21 2022

Key Messages:

- Strong arctic cold front passes through Thursday late afternoon
into early evening

- Extremely cold wind chills in the single digits to teens

- Multiple nights of Freeze to Hard Freeze temperatures (20-32)

- Gale conditions with gusts near storm force Thursday night into
Friday

- Wind Advisory may be needed across Coastal Bend Thursday evening
into Friday morning

- Brief elevated fire weather conditions east of HWY-241 Friday

The strong arctic cold front will pass through the region quickly,
expected to be entirely south of the CWA by 9 PM Thursday at the
latest. Very strong sustained winds over 30 MPH will be possible
along the Coastal Bend Thursday evening into Friday morning and will
likely require a Wind Advisory. Elsewhere, efficient cold air
advection with winds 20 to 30 MPH will plummet temperatures well
below freezing overnight. Lows Thursday night will range from around
20 degrees over the Victoria Crossroads to around 27 over the Rio
Grande and coast, keeping the Hard Freeze Watch intact for all of
South Texas with less confidence over the islands. The greatest
threat will be the extremely dangerous wind chills dropping into the
single digits over the Victoria Crossroads and the lower to mid
teens elsewhere.

Highs on Friday will reach the mid 30s but would not be surprised if
cloud cover lingers and some locations don't go above freezing. NBM
shows probability of max temperatures 32 degrees or below ranging
from 30 to 40%. Prolong freezing temperatures will lead to a greater
risk of hypothermia; limit exposure, seek warming shelters if
needed, and don't forget about your pets. Strong winds and relative
humidity values dropping below 30% could lead to elevated fire
weather conditions Friday morning and afternoon mainly east of HWY-
241. Another hard freeze night is expected Friday night with lows
ranging from 20 to 25 degrees across much of South Texas.
Temperatures will gradually warm into early next week with highs in
the 40s Saturday and Sunday, with lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s
Saturday night and Sunday night.

Onshore flow is anticipated to return by Monday leading to warmer
temperatures with highs around 60 but model discrepancies increase
through the early work week. The ECMWF and CMC have a mid-level
trough deepening over the Great Plains with a brief cold front
passing through Monday night into Tuesday, dropping temperatures
again. While the GFS keeps the trough shallow and north of South
Texas before deepening it over the SE CONUS, keeping onshore flow
intact. No mentionable chances of precipitation through early next
week.

Last but not least, minor coastal flooding will be possible through
at least Sunday during high tide due to strong northeasterly flow
enhancing Ekman transport, wave heights 5 to 7 feet, periods nearing
8 seconds, and a new moon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 AM CST Wed Dec 21 2022

Clouds continue across S TX this morning with generally MVFR/VFR
conditions with VCT at IFR levels, but also expected to improve.
Models indicate all of S TX will be at VFR levels by mid
afternoon. There is the potential that CIGs remain at MVFR levels
into the late afternoon. VFR conditions are expected this evening,
then fog is forecast to develop late tonight into early Thursday
morning leading to IFR conditions between 09-14Z. Surface winds
will be light generally from the east and southeast today and
variable tonight. Winds are expected to shift to the west Thursday
morning ahead of a strong arctic cold front. Beyond the TAF
period, the front will blast through S TX Thursday afternoon into
Thursday evening with very strong northerly winds developing in
its wake.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Dec 21 2022

Weak to moderate north winds will become northeast this evening.
Winds will turn to the west Thursday before a very strong arctic
cold front blasts through the coastal waters Thursday afternoon,
leading to strong to very strong northwesterly winds. Sustained
northerly gale force winds will follow in wake of the arctic cold
front Thursday night through Friday morning with with gusts near
storm force and seas over 15 feet possible over the offshore
waters. Mariners can expect dangerous wind chill readings in the
teens over the gulf waters with light fog possible due to the cold
air blowing over warm water. Gale conditions may continue through
Friday afternoon with seas remaining around 10 feet and frequent
gale force wind gusts. Strong north to northeasterly flow will
persist Friday night through Saturday causing Small Craft Advisory
conditions, becoming moderate to strong Saturday night. Winds
will diminish to moderate levels Sunday morning then shift
southwesterly Sunday night. Slight chances of light showers over
the offshore waters through the weekend. Another cold front may
pass through Monday into Tuesday with moderate to strong northerly
winds in its wake but confidence is low at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    59  49  69  23 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          57  45  63  19 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            60  48  70  27 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             61  46  69  23 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          58  52  64  23 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           60  45  66  24 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        61  48  71  24 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       59  56  66  27 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Hard Freeze Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning
     for TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447.

     Wind Chill Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning
     for TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447.

GM...Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon for
     GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275.

&&

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM....EMF
AVIATION...TE/81

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1050 AM CST Wed Dec 21 2022

TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447-221015-
La Salle-McMullen-Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Webb-Duval-Jim Wells-
Inland Kleberg-Inland Nueces-Inland San Patricio-Coastal Aransas-
Inland Refugio-Inland Calhoun-Coastal Kleberg-Coastal Nueces-
Coastal San Patricio-Aransas Islands-Coastal Refugio-Coastal Calhoun-
Kleberg Islands-Nueces Islands-Calhoun Islands-
1050 AM CST Wed Dec 21 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Minor coastal flooding is possible this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

An arctic cold front will bring hard freeze conditions and
dangerously low wind chill values to South Texas for three
consecutive nights beginning Thursday night and continuing through
Sunday morning. A hard freeze watch and wind chill watch is in
effect.

Winds may reach advisory levels across the Barrier Islands and
coastal county areas Thursday night into Friday morning.

Minor coastal flooding will be possible during high tide through
at least Sunday.

Brief elevated fire weather conditions are possible early Friday
morning through afternoon, mainly east of HWY-281.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275-221015-
Baffin Bay and Upper Laguna Madre-Corpus Christi and Nueces Bays-
Copano, Aransas, and Redfish Bays-
San Antonio, Mesquite, and Espiritu Santo Bays-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM-
Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM-
1050 AM CST Wed Dec 21 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Gale conditions are likely Thursday night into Friday afternoon
behind an arctic cold front. Wind gusts to storm force will be
possible. Small Craft Advisory conditions will linger through
Saturday night. Small Craft Advisory conditions may develop again
Monday night through Tuesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.