Special Weather Statement, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
308 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push through the region this evening. High
pressure builds in Thursday afternoon through Saturday before a
warm front lifts across the region Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Through Thursday night/...
The main weather story this afternoon into this evening will be
the threat for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. The
thermodynamics are coming together for a rather active and
storm later afternoon for most of northern Ohio into northwest
Pennsylvania. Mixed layer CAPE values are approaching 1500 to
2000 J/KG. Downward CAPE values are running 800 to 1000 J/KG.
Effective Bulk shear values are not overly impressive but just
enough around 30 to 35 knots. There is some warm air aloft
resulting in our mid level lapse rates to be around 6C.
Precipitable water values are a modest 1.3 to 1.5 inch. A weak
cold front will push through the area now through the mid
evening hours.

With these atmospheric ingredients, we are
expecting multi-cell type convection. There may be the
potential for a couple mini bowing clusters of storms as well.
The main severe hazards will be damaging wind gusts up to 65
mph followed by marginally severe hail up to the size of
quarters. There will be a locally heavy rainfall threat given
the high moisture content in the lower atmosphere. The timing
for severe convection will be now through about 00z before most
of the storms move east out of our area.

The cold front will slowly move through later this evening with
a few lingering showers possible. A weak low will track along
the front across Ohio late tonight into early Thursday morning.
This weak low may bring a few additional scattered rain showers
through early Thursday morning before high pressure builds into
the region by late Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. Clouds
will slowly clear from northwest to southeast on Thursday
afternoon. High temps will be almost 20 degrees cooler on
Thursday in the middle to upper 60s. Clear skies and drier air
moves in Thursday night with very pleasant weather and
temperatures into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Friday through Saturday night/...
Fair weather is likely during the whole period as troughing aloft
exits northeastward and is followed by westerly flow aloft, and
stabilizing high pressure ridging at/near the surface builds from
the northern Great Plains. A surface trough associated with a weak
cold front should sweep southeast across our CWA on Friday, but dry
low-levels and weak low-level convergence/ascent along the front
should prevent precip development. Daytime highs mainly in the 70's
on Friday should be followed by highs in the mid 60's to mid 70's on
Saturday. Overnight lows should range from the mid 40's to mid 50's
Friday and Saturday nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday night through Wednesday/...
Westerly flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances should
affect our CWA this whole period. At the surface, high pressure
exits eastward on Sunday and is followed by a northeastward warm
front passage on Monday. A southeastward cold front passage may
occur by late Monday. This frontal zone may then waver in vicinity
of our region Tuesday through Wednesday as multiple and weak low
pressure centers potentially ripple generally northeastward along
the front. This pattern should result in periods of showers and
thunderstorms, but uncertainty remains regarding the timing of each
shortwave disturbance and associated greater potential for
showers/storms. Highs should mainly reach the 70's, but our I-75
corridor counties may have highs reach the lower 80's on Sunday and
Monday. Lows should reach the mid 50's to lower 60's each night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
The main concerns for aviation will be the potential for
scattered strong to severe convection this afternoon into the
early evening hours for all of northern Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania. We expect VFR conditions through the evening hours
outside of any heavier convection. There will be brief drops in
visibilities and ceilings with the convection as well into the
evening hours. The strongest convection will be capable of large
hail and severe downburst wind gusts.

A cold front will move through the area this evening after 00z
which will shift southwest winds 5-10 knots today to
northwest/north winds 5-10 knots overnight into Thursday
morning. Ceilings will drop to MVFR and some locations lower
end MVFR. Some guidance shows the potential for IFR at a few
locations but we did not have that in the TAF for this update.
We will watch trends and see if those ceilings need to be
updated in the TAF. MVFR ceilings expected to last through
Thursday morning. There could be some scattered light rain
showers possible around early Thursday morning.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely Thursday morning into the afternoon
with rain showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds of about 15 knots or less are expected through this Monday.
Waves should trend 3 feet or less. At this point, no Small Craft
Advisories are anticipated. A cold front will continue to sweep
southeastward across Lake Erie through this evening and will be
followed by high pressure building from the northern Great Plains
through Thursday. Southwesterly winds veer to mainly northwesterly
to northerly behind the front. Variable wind direction is then
expected Friday through Sunday as the high pressure ridge builds
further over the lake. On Monday, high pressure exits eastward and a
warm front sweeps northeastward in the morning, allowing winds to
veer from southeasterly to southwesterly. These southwesterly winds
may then veer to northwesterly and then to northeasterly later on
Monday as a southeastward cold front passage is followed by high
pressure building from the Canadian Prairies.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Griffin
NEAR TERM...Garuckas
SHORT TERM...Jaszka
LONG TERM...Jaszka
AVIATION...Griffin
MARINE...Jaszka

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
347 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022

LEZ144>149-164>169-OHZ009>014-018>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-
PAZ001>003-022000-
The Islands to Vermilion OH-Vermilion to Avon Point OH-
Avon Point to Willowick OH-Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-
on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-
Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-Wyandot-Crawford-
Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-
Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
347 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 301 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, north central
Ohio, northeast Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ142-143-162-163-OHZ003-006>008-017-022000-
Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Hancock-
347 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and
evening. The main threat is strong damaging winds but some
larger hail is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
343 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022

PAZ003-012030-
Crawford PA-
343 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Crawford County through 430 PM EDT...

At 342 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Guys Mills, or 7 miles southeast of Meadville,
moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Meadville, Titusville, Guys Mills, Cochranton, Hydetown, Blooming
Valley and Townville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
northwestern Pennsylvania.

&&

LAT...LON 4162 7982 4161 7983 4155 7992 4154 7993
      4151 7998 4149 8000 4149 8009 4148 8016
      4167 8016 4170 7961 4162 7961
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 272DEG 34KT 4154 8008

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Jaszka

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
344 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022

OHZ008-009-012030-
Erie OH-Sandusky OH-
344 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Erie and east
central Sandusky Counties through 430 PM EDT...

At 344 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Castalia, or 7 miles southeast of Port Clinton, moving east at 30
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Sandusky, Western Vermilion, Castalia, Berlin Heights, Whites
Landing, Bloomingville, Sandusky South, Vickery, Birmingham and
Fairview Lanes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
north central Ohio.

&&

LAT...LON 4142 8295 4144 8286 4147 8281 4144 8276
      4146 8271 4149 8269 4147 8270 4145 8269
      4138 8250 4143 8235 4128 8235 4136 8297
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 271DEG 25KT 4142 8286

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Kahn

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
344 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022

OHZ032-012015-
Stark OH-
344 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Stark
County through 415 PM EDT...

At 344 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
East Sparta, or 11 miles south of Canton, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Minerva, Waynesburg and East Sparta.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
northeastern Ohio.

&&

LAT...LON 4075 8140 4076 8109 4073 8109 4072 8123
      4065 8124 4065 8140
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 272DEG 34KT 4066 8131

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Jaszka

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
346 PM EDT WED JUN 1 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0341 PM     HAIL             5 WSW BETTSVILLE        41.22N 83.32W
06/01/2022  E1.00 INCH       SENECA             OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALSO ESTIMATED 60 MPH WIND.

&&

26

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
347 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022

OHZ017-027-012045-
Wyandot OH-Hancock OH-
347 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Wyandot and
southeastern Hancock Counties through 445 PM EDT...

At 347 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Arlington, or 10 miles south of Findlay, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Upper Sandusky, Forest, Arlington, Sycamore, Morral, Vanlue,
Marseilles, Carey, Nevada, Mount Blanchard, Wharton, Harpster, Kirby
and Williamstown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
north central and northwestern Ohio.

&&

LAT...LON 4098 8371 4100 8342 4099 8336 4099 8311
      4070 8311 4070 8330 4069 8343 4070 8344
      4071 8349 4082 8351 4082 8371
TIME...MOT...LOC 1947Z 268DEG 25KT 4089 8361

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Kahn

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
400 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022

OHZ008-009-018-019-012045-
Seneca OH-Huron OH-Erie OH-Sandusky OH-
400 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Huron, southeastern
Seneca, Erie and southeastern Sandusky Counties through 445 PM EDT...

At 400 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Clyde to 7 miles southeast of Green
Springs to near New Riegel. Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Tiffin, Norwalk, Bellevue, Willard, Northern Milan, Milan, Wakeman,
Bloomville, New Riegel, Monroeville, Attica, North Fairfield,
Republic and Flat Rock.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
north central and northwestern Ohio.

&&

LAT...LON 4118 8305 4135 8290 4128 8235 4123 8235
      4099 8283 4099 8336 4100 8342
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 264DEG 26KT 4135 8292 4119 8294 4100 8336

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Kahn