Small Craft Advisory 22, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
210 AM EDT Tue Apr 26 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will pull a surface trough across the region
this afternoon into the evening. Ridge builds into the region
from the north late Wednesday then persists into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Still enough lift from the entrance region of the 5H jet to keep
showers going across eastern OH into western PA. These should
shift eastward fairly fast. Cloud cover will persist through the
night. Lows should dip into the 40's across the entire region.

Our attention today will be drawn to the upper level low that
moves across  the central Great LAkes into the evening. Colder
air aloft is expected to steepen lapse rates and lift moisture
off the lakes. A few showers may move into NW OH this afternoon
near Toledo. These should be short lived as the surface trough
axis moves eastward across the CWA late afternoon into the
evening. It looks as if it will become cold enough at 850
mb(-8C to -10C) that we have to mention some lake enhanced rain
and snow showers for tonight. Some light accumulations look like
they will occur on elevated surfaces and grass/mulch areas.
This accumulation will mainly be across the hilltops but all
locations across NE OH into NW PA have a decent shot of at
least a passing snow shower. Much colder today with highs in
the upper 40's to lower 50's. Cold tonight as skies clear. Lows
across most of the region will be in the 30's. Frost advisory
is looking likely for portions of Ohio so stay tuned on the
area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
We begin the short term period with lingering lake enhanced showers
across the snowbelt. Favorable northwesterly fetch off of Lake Erie,
in addition to 850 mb temperatures near -8 to -10 degrees C will
allow for lake enhanced precipitation through late Wednesday
morning. Given cold air aloft and near the surface overnight
Wednesday, rain/snow mix will transition to mostly snow across
the snowbelt overnight. The highest snow accumulations remain
across the higher terrain locations in NW PA. The upper level
low will drift eastward late Wednesday as surface high pressure
will begin to build into the region from the north. This will
cut off any lingering lake enhanced precipitation. Dry air looks
to remain in place for the remainder of the short term period.

Temperatures in the short term will be well below average for this
time of year given the cold air mass in place above the region. Low
temperatures on Wednesday will drop below freezing and into the
upper 20s for most, except along the immediate lake shore. Given
this cold air mass, frost development is most likely to occur
overnight Wednesday into Thursday as clearing skies, below
freezing temperatures, and calm winds are expected. High
temperatures on Thursday will struggle to reach into the mid
50s, with most of the lakeshore locations topping out in the
upper 40s, which is around 20- 25 degrees below average for late
April. Low temperatures Thursday night will settle in the mid
30s, but with cloud cover increasing from west to east
overnight, frost potential seems less likely and should remain
confined to the eastern portion of the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface high pressure will drift southward to begin the long term,
but we look to remain dry for the first half of the weekend thanks
to upper level ridging. Saturday night into Sunday an upper level
vort max will eject out of the Rockies. This vort max will slowly
creep toward the Ohio Valley. Chance PoPs begin in the southwestern
corner of the CWA Saturday afternoon and begin to move northeastward
throughout the overnight hours Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Models seem to be in a bit better of an agreement with precip onset
early Sunday morning, but the GFS has precip ending quickly with the
Euro and Canadian having precip hanging on through most of
Monday.

Temperatures will slowly increase through the long term period,
returning to near normal by Sunday. Highs should reach the mid to
upper 60s, near normal for early May, Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Just enough lift to generate showers near the OH/PA border into
NW PA. This region could see a few showers and MVFR ceilings
through sunrise. Elsewhere it looks like we will see VFR conditions
until the upper level low moves into the central Great Lakes.
Showers may sneak into the vicinity of KTOL by mid afternoon.
All of these showers then shift out over the lake into NE OH/NW
PA through the evening and remaining over this region through
the overnight. Expect MVFR ceilings with the showers. The
showers mix with and change to snow by 06Z Wednesday. KERI and
KYNG have the best chances of seeing some snow. maybe a passing
snow shower at KCLE and KCAK. NO accumulations are expected at
any of the terminals.

West to northwest winds of 5 to 12 knots are expected through
early afternoon. As a surface trough crosses the region winds
shift to the northwest and increase to 15 to 20 knots. A few
gusts to 25 knots may occur.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with rain/snow Wednesday morning
across NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally northwest flow across the lake will become west by
Tuesday remaining at 10-15 knots. Westerly winds will increase
Tuesday afternoon ranging between 15-25 knots through Wednesday
morning. Waves look to approach the 3-5 foot range Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning, which may warrant the issuance of a
Small Craft Advisory for this period. High pressure begins to
move into the region by Wednesday afternoon which will allow
winds to decrease to 10-15 knots with flow becoming northerly.
High pressure remains in the region through Friday, allowing for
diminishing winds and subsiding waves.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MM
NEAR TERM...MM
SHORT TERM...Iverson
LONG TERM...Iverson
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...Iverson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
625 PM EDT Mon Apr 25 2022

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-PAZ001>003-262230-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH-The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-Crawford-
625 PM EDT Mon Apr 25 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie and northwest
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Frost will be possible for Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday nights.
The best potential for sub-freezing temperatures will be on Wednesday
night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-262230-
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-
Ashtabula Inland-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-
Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-
Holmes-Knox-Ashtabula Lakeshore-
625 PM EDT Mon Apr 25 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1035 PM EDT MON APR 25 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GREENE TOWNSHIP         42.06N 79.99W
04/25/2022                   ERIE               PA   PUBLIC

            A SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT SHOWED PHOTOS OF
            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS GREENE TOWNSHIP.
            ONE TREE WAS ONTO A HOUSE AND ANOTHER HOME
            SUSTAINED MINOR ROOF DAMAGE.

&&

SEFCOVIC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1047 PM EDT MON APR 25 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0144 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NW NORTH FAIRFIELD    41.13N 82.66W
04/25/2022                   HURON              OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL UTILITY POLES SNAPPED OFF ALONG WITH
            WIRES DOWN.

0219 PM     TORNADO          2 ENE EATON ESTATES     41.31N 81.97W
04/25/2022                   LORAIN             OH   NWS STORM SURVEY

            A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURVEY
            CONFIRMED AN EF-0 TORNADO OCCURRED ON
            MONDAY, APRIL 25, 2022 IN EATON TOWNSHIP IN
            EASTERN LORAIN COUNTY, OHIO. THE STORM
            SURVEY DISCOVERED DAMAGE TO SEVERAL
            INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS AND VEHICLES OFF EATON
            COMMERCE WAY, SOUTH OF OHIO STATE ROUTE 82.
            DAMAGE WAS CONSISTENT WITH A BRIEF EF-0
            TORNADO WITH A MAXIMUM WIND GUST TO 80 MPH.
            THE TORNADO WAS ON THE GROUND FOR LESS THAN
            ONE MINUTE AND FOR LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF A
            MILE.

0234 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S BEREA               41.35N 81.86W
04/25/2022                   CUYAHOGA           OH   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL LARGE LIMBS DOWN.

0314 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSE CHARDON           41.56N 81.20W
04/25/2022                   GEAUGA             OH   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON SOUTH ST.

0318 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 1 NNW FAIRPORT HARBOR   41.76N 81.28W
04/25/2022  M50 MPH          LAKE               OH   OTHER FEDERAL

            44 KNOT PEAK WIND. BUOY STATION FAIO1
            FAIRPORT, OH.

0325 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 NE AQUILLA            41.61N 81.05W
04/25/2022                   GEAUGA             OH   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE AND WIRES DOWN.

0359 PM     TSTM WND DMG     10 N ANDOVER            41.75N 80.57W
04/25/2022                   ASHTABULA          OH   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN.

0409 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 WNW SPRINGBORO        41.82N 80.42W
04/25/2022  M75 MPH          CRAWFORD           PA   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CORRECTS TIME OF PREVIOUS TSTM WND GST
            REPORT FROM 3 WNW SPRINGBORO.

0415 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNW SPRINGBORO        41.81N 80.38W
04/25/2022                   CRAWFORD           PA   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN.

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SSW MCKEAN            41.93N 80.19W
04/25/2022                   ERIE               PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ABOUT 6 PINE TREES DOWN.

0431 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NNW EDINBORO          41.93N 80.16W
04/25/2022                   ERIE               PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN.

0433 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 S MCKEAN              41.95N 80.13W
04/25/2022                   ERIE               PA   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN.

0440 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GREENE TOWNSHIP         42.06N 79.99W
04/25/2022                   ERIE               PA   PUBLIC

            A SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT SHOWED PHOTOS OF
            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS GREENE TOWNSHIP.
            ONE TREE WAS ONTO A HOUSE AND ANOTHER HOME
            SUSTAINED MINOR ROOF DAMAGE.

0455 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 S WESLEYVILLE         42.06N 80.00W
04/25/2022                   ERIE               PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN.

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 WNW WATTSBURG         42.03N 79.92W
04/25/2022                   ERIE               PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN.

&&

SEFCOVIC