Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Cleveland, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
346 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the west tonight before
sweeping east across the area Tuesday. The front will be
followed by a secondary cold front Wednesday night into Thursday
and high pressure will return through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Unsettled weather will persist through tonight as additional
rounds of convection move across the area. A lull in activity is
anticipated before the MCS currently across northern Illinois
and southeastern Michigan moves east this evening. Currently
thinking it will begin to creep into the area sometime between
21Z and 23Z. Although the MCS should weaken and become less
organized as it moves east into a region with less favorable
shear, MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg, dew points in the low to
mid 70s, and effective bulk shear values of 20 to 25 knots will
support a threat of damaging wind gusts and localized
torrential rain/flooding, especially in western zones. Guidance
is still a bit inconsistent with the eastward extent of the
convection; it's possible that it weakens across the area and
leaves behind a boundary to allow additional convection to
blossom overnight. There's still quite spread in guidance with
any overnight precip, so opted for broad likely PoPs that will
likely be refined in subsequent updates. The severe threat
should diminish with the initial round of convection, but the
heavy rain threat may persist.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will persist
through late Thursday morning or early afternoon before tapering
off from west to east as a cold front moves east across the CWA.
By Tuesday evening, the vast majority of the precip will exit
to the east with cold air advection developing in the front's
wake. Lingering troughing and cold air aloft may result in
scattered lake- enhanced showers across NW PA and extreme NE OH
through the end of the near term period.

Tonight's lows will manage to fall into the (still unseasonably
warm) upper 60s to lower 70s, but it will still feel quite muggy
with dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Tuesday's highs
will climb into the mid to upper 70s to lower 80s and expect a
noticeable cool-down Tuesday night as lows drop into the upper 50s
to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Generally quiet and cooler weather is expected through the
short term period as a reinforcing cold front will move south
across the Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday.

For the beginning of the short term period, some lingering lake-
effect rain showers and/or clouds are possible across NE OH into NW
PA Wednesday morning with gradual clearing expected through the
afternoon hours. Another trough will swing south across the eastern
Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday, extending a reinforcing
cold front across the area. At this time, precipitation is not
expected, though could see some brief increase in cloud cover across
NE OH and NW PA overnight.

Cooler and drier weather will return for Thursday, with highs
generally in the low to mid 70s. Slightly warmer weather in the
upper 70s to perhaps 80 is possible across NW OH. The seasonably-
cool weather will continue into Thursday night, with most places
dropping into the low 50s with perhaps some upper 40s possible
across inland NW PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The generally weather pattern is expected to continue through the
long term period, characterized by generally weak, zonal upper-level
flow under surface high pressure. A weak upper trough axis will
extend a cold front south across the region late Saturday into
Sunday which could result in some isolated shower activity, though
confidence remains low on coverage and intensity at this time.

Average to slightly above average temperatures are expected through
the long term period. The warmest day will be on Saturday ahead of
the upper trough/cold frontal passage with temperatures in the mid
to upper 80s, though low-level moisture and surface dew points will
remain seasonably low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR is expected through the remainder of the afternoon before a
line of thunderstorms moves east into the local area this
evening. Still some uncertainty in the precip chances at each
terminal, but the highest rain chances are at KTOL this evening.
Any storms that move over terminals will produce non-VFR
visibilities and perhaps gusty, erratic winds. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms may linger through Tuesday morning
with MVFR possibly developing at southern and eastern terminals
as a cold front approaches from the west. Showers should taper
off from west to east as the cold front starts to cross the CWA
late in the TAF period.

South to southwest winds 8 to 14 knots with gusts to 22 knots
are anticipated through this evening before diminishing to 5 to
10 knots overnight.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in isolated showers across NW PA and
far NE OH through early Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally southwest winds of 15 to 20 knots will continue through
the rest of this evening and overnight, gradually shifting towards
the west on Tuesday. A strong cold front will eventually arrive
across the lake Tuesday evening, shifting winds towards the
northwest, around 20 knots. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be
needed for late Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for much
of the central and eastern basin of the lake. Westerly flow of 15 to
20 knots will persist across the lake Wednesday afternoon, with
another weak cold front arriving Wednesday night into Thursday,
shifting winds once again towards the northwest and north, but
diminishing to around 10 knots. Weak flow will return for Friday
into Saturday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Maines
NEAR TERM...Maines
SHORT TERM...Kahn
LONG TERM...Kahn
AVIATION...Maines
MARINE...Kahn

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
426 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022

LEZ061-144>149-164>169-OHZ009-010-013-014-019>023-027>033-036>038-
047-PAZ002-003-302030-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Erie-Lorain-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Huron-Medina-
Summit-Portage-Trumbull-Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-
Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-Southern Erie-
426 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, north central
Ohio, northeast Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are likely through tonight. A few storms may
be strong to severe this evening, with the best chance along and
west
of I-75. Damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rain are the primary
threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ142-143-162-163-OHZ003-006>008-017-018-302030-
Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-Reno Beach to The Islands OH-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Hancock-Seneca-
426 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 529 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

OHZ011-012-089-PAZ001-302030-
Cuyahoga-Lake-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-
426 PM EDT Mon Aug 29 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are likely through tonight. A few storms may
be strong to severe this evening, with damaging wind gusts and
locally heavy rain being the primary threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>