Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Cleveland, OH

786 
WGUS71 KCLE 220236
FFSCLE

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1036 PM EDT Sat May 21 2022

PAC049-220430-
/O.CON.KCLE.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-220522T0430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Erie PA-
1036 PM EDT Sat May 21 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 AM EDT SUNDAY 
FOR SOUTHEASTERN ERIE COUNTY...

At 1036 PM EDT, local law enforcement reported thunderstorms 
producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 3 and 4.5 
inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is already occurring.

HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Law enforcement reported.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Corry, Union City and Elgin.

4 homes have been evacuated in Union City with water up to the roof 
tops. Numerous basements are also flooded.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law 
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National 
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 4191 7961 4185 7981 4186 7995 4197 7979
      4200 7975 4200 7973 4200 7965 4200 7962
      4200 7961 4197 7961 4194 7961

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

Garuckas

461 
WGUS71 KCLE 220408
FFSCLE

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1208 AM EDT Sun May 22 2022

PAC049-220418-
/O.CAN.KCLE.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-220522T0430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Erie PA-
1208 AM EDT Sun May 22 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN ERIE COUNTY HAS BEEN 
REPLACED WITH A FLOOD WARNING...

LAT...LON 4191 7961 4185 7981 4186 7995 4197 7979
      4200 7975 4200 7973 4200 7965 4200 7962
      4200 7961 4197 7961 4194 7961

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
759 PM EDT Sat May 21 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves west to east across the region tonight. High
pressure builds eastward across the Great Lakes region tomorrow
night through Tuesday. A warm front extending from low pressure
over the mid-Mississippi Valley will move northward across the
area Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Atmosphere becoming stable in the wake of the main line of
convection that is moving into western PA. Still some stratiform
rain in its wake that will persist for a couple more hours.

Still will need to monitor for some additional
shower/thunderstorm development along the cold front that is
still west of the CWA. Looks like we are still waiting for a
ripple of low pressure to move northeast near the southern shore
of Lake Erie.

Previous Discussion...
The environment is primed for severe thunderstorms this
afternoon, with RAP mesoanalysis suggesting SBCAPE as high as
4000 J/kg, with projections building it up to 4500 J/kg.
Combined with effective bulk shear 30-40 kts and we have a
favorable environment for severe convection. Damaging wind gusts
are likely to be the prime culprit this afternoon and evening
with max theta-e difference of up to 30 C, DCAPE up to 1200 J/kg
and low level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km all contributing to a
favorable environment for damaging winds. However, large hail
will also be possible with moderate mid-level lapse rates of
6.5-7 and hail growth zone (-10 to -30 C) CAPE of up to 1000
J/kg. While not especially favorable, an isolated tornado can
not be ruled out with modest 0-1 km shear of around 10-15 kts,
effective SRH around 50, and LCL heights around 1000m. Flash
flooding is also pose a risk with a very moist environment in
place, especially if convection initiates off a WSW-ENE
boundary.

The cold front finally pushes east of the area tomorrow
morning and precipitation will gradually taper off during the
morning and early afternoon Sunday from west to east. Cooler
air will spread into the area tonight with considerably colder
temperatures compared to this morning's lows. Also, notably
cooler temperatures expected for Sunday. As we remain in the
warm sector today, temperatures will take a stab at hitting the
90 degree mark. However, with advancing clouds, temperatures
should hold below the 90 degree level across much of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure over the Great Lakes will foster dry weather through
the majority of the short term period. However, lingering cold air
advection will provide below normal temperatures Monday, with highs
in the low to mid 60s anticipated. By Tuesday, a building ridge
across the southeastern US will allow temps to increase and highs
will recover to the low to mid 70s. Overnight lows will be in the
40s to low 50s each night.

Pops begin to increase Tuesday night as low pressure developing over
the Mississippi Valley lifts a warm front northeast towards the
local area. The best chance of scattered showers will be confined to
the western half of the forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
An unsettled weather pattern is expected mid to late week as a
deepening upper-level trough and surface low inch eastward across
the region and several shortwaves move across the local area. This
will result in several waves of precipitation, including potential
for thunderstorms during peak heating hours. As of now, the highest
pops are Wednesday and Thursday, with slightly lower chances heading
towards the end of the week due to divergence in model guidance. A
cold front will likely move across the area Friday, allowing pops to
decrease Friday night into Saturday. However, scattered showers may
persist through the first half of the weekend as a reinforcing cold
front moves across the lower Great Lakes.

Wednesday and Thursday will most likely be the warmest days of the
week with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Temps will be slightly
cooler in the upper 60s Friday and upper 60s to low 70s Saturday.
Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to low 60s Wednesday and
Thursday night and expect cooler lows in the low 50s Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Strongest thunderstorms moving across western PA. MVFR/IFR
conditions with the strongest convection. Gusts may reach 45
knots. Otherwise light rain continues in the wake of the
stronger convection. Low pressure tracks near the south shore
of Lake Erie through 06Z eventually pulling the cold front
eastward across northern OH into NW PA in the morning. may be
some MVFR ceilings in the wake of the front into Sunday
afternoon.

Winds variable with the convective outflows and the area of low
pressure moving eastward near the south shore of the lake. Winds
eventually shift to the west and northwest in the wake of the
cold front. Winds may reach 10 to 15 knots for a few hours with
gusts around 20 knots. Winds decrease through the afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible Tuesday night through Thursday with
showers and afternoon thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Thunderstorms will impact the lake this afternoon into early this
evening and any thunderstorms that move over the lake may produce
hail and strong winds. Outside of thunderstorms, expect variable
winds 6 to 12 knots this afternoon before becoming southwesterly
this evening. Winds shift to the northwest and increase to 15 to 20
knots Sunday morning and a short-fused Small Craft Advisory may be
needed before winds and waves decrease Sunday afternoon. Onshore
flow continues through the first half of next week and although
winds will remain below 20 knots, persistent onshore flow may keep
waves elevated in nearshore zones. Will continue to monitor wind and
wave forecast trends for any Small Craft Advisory conditions through
the weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MM/Saunders
NEAR TERM...MM/Saunders
SHORT TERM...Maines
LONG TERM...Maines
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...Maines

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
750 PM EDT Sat May 21 2022

LEZ061-142>147-162>169-OHZ003-006>013-017>022-027>032-036>038-047-
230000-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH-The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-
Geauga-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Wyandot-Crawford-
Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox-
750 PM EDT Sat May 21 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, north central
Ohio, northeast Ohio and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ148-149-OHZ014-023-033-089-PAZ001>003-230000-
Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Ashtabula Inland-Trumbull-Mahoning-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-
Southern Erie-Crawford-
750 PM EDT Sat May 21 2022

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 255 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, northeast Ohio and
northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed. Please relay any
information about observed severe weather to the NWS while following
all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
732 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0504 PM     HAIL             1 SE CHARDON            41.56N 81.20W
05/21/2022  U1.00 INCH       GEAUGA             OH   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: QUARTER (1.00 IN.).

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
739 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0736 PM     HAIL             GIRARD                  41.15N 80.70W
05/21/2022  E0.70 INCH       TRUMBULL           OH   AMATEUR RADIO

            DIME SIZE HAIL.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
740 PM EDT Sat May 21 2022

OHZ023-PAZ003-220030-
Trumbull OH-Crawford PA-
740 PM EDT Sat May 21 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Trumbull and
central Crawford Counties through 830 PM EDT...

At 740 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Sharpsville, moving northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Meadville, Hubbard, Cortland, Cambridge Springs, Vienna Center,
Adamsville, Guys Mills, Atlantic, Pymatuning Central, Vienna,
Johnston, Cochranton, Saegertown, Conneaut Lake, Jamestown, Blooming
Valley, Townville, Venango, Orangeville and Woodcock.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
northeastern Ohio...and northwestern Pennsylvania.

&&

LAT...LON 4149 8000 4149 8052 4114 8052 4114 8054
      4115 8055 4131 8080 4185 7999 4185 7994
      4168 7972
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 227DEG 52KT 4129 8057

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Garuckas

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
745 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0711 PM     HAIL             4 S LORDSTOWN           41.11N 80.88W
05/21/2022  U0.75 INCH       MAHONING           OH   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: DIME (0.75 IN.).

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
750 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0743 PM     HEAVY RAIN       CONNEAUT                41.93N 80.57W
05/21/2022  M1.30 INCH       ASHTABULA          OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL IN ONE HALF HOUR.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
831 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0808 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WNW COCHRANTON        41.53N 80.11W
05/21/2022                   CRAWFORD           PA   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN.

&&