Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
342 PM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will pass through late tonight, then stall off the
coast on Thursday. Another front could arrive early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
This Evening and Tonight: A quasi-zonal flow will prevail across the
Southeast United States between a broad ridge of high pressure
across the Gulf and Atlantic and a trough entering the Midwest. At
the sfc, south winds will persist near the coast behind a slowly
inland moving seabreeze while west-southwest winds prevail inland as
the remnants of a MCS drift into southeast Georgia. Strong sfc
heating late afternoon along with boundary collisions should
continue to support few/scattered showers and thunderstorms
along/east of the I-95 corridor into the evening, while some
guidance suggests new development further inland as mid-lvl vort
energy progresses through the region. A few thunderstorms could
become strong and/or severe into early evening hours in response to
boundary collisions and this feature encountering an environment
displaying MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg, but weak shear. Strong low-lvl
lapse rates and DCAPE around 800 J/kg suggest the main concern to be
damaging winds should convection become enhanced. Brief heavy
rainfall is also possible given PWATs near 2.0 inches. Expect
activity to shift toward the coast early evening, then wane with the
loss of diurnal heating.

Overnight, another upstream shortwave trough could help push an
ongoing MCS to the Southeast United States. Latest Hi-Res guidance
suggests a cluster of showers/thunderstorms approaching inland zones
late tonight, likely after 06Z, and perhaps traversing across much
of Southeast South Carolina heading into daybreak. Confidence in
this feature reaching the area remains fairly low, but sufficient to
maintain a chance/slight chance of precip across zones late tonight.
Temps should remain mild overnight with a south wind turning west.
In general, low temps will range in the low-mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The cold front will drift through the area Thursday morning and
then stall off the coast Thursday afternoon. The airmass behind
the front will remain relatively moist, though dewpoints could
drop into the mid/upper 60s far inland during the afternoon. Low
and mid level flow will be westerly, resulting in broad
subsidence. This should limit convective development until the
sea breeze begins to force isolated showers/tstms near the coast
early in the afternoon. Some models depict an MCS associated
with an upper shortwave moving through southern GA mid to late
Thursday afternoon.

A drier, more stable airmass will settle over the area on
Friday. Deep westerly flow will suppress updrafts, minimizing
chances for convection. Conditions will be slightly more
favorable for convection along the Altamaha River in GA so we
have a slight chance PoP in that area. Highs will be in the low
90s.

Weak low pressure will move northeast through the area on
Saturday. Lapse rates will improve and moderate instability will
overspread the area from the south during the day. Scattered
showers and tstms will be possible as diurnal heating occurs.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A strong upper ridge will build over the area for next week,
bringing unseasonably warm temperatures to the area while
minimizing convective potential. Monday through Wednesday high
temps could reach the upper 90s to near 100F inland. Fortunately
the dewpoints will mix down into the mid/upper 60s during the
hottest hours, keeping heat indices generally less than 105F.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions should generally prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals
through 18Z Thursday. However, TEMPO MVFR conditions are possible
at the terminals late afternoon/early evening, mainly at the
CHS terminal, due to showers and thunderstorms impacting the
terminal. Another round of flight restrictions is possible after
06Z tonight, mainly associated with a cluster of showers/thunderstorms
moving through the region late night.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR. Brief restrictions
possible with afternoon showers/tstms through Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
This Evening and Tonight: Outside a few potentially strong
thunderstorms near the coast early this evening, winds/seas are
expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels through the
overnight period as the area remains between high pressure centered
well off the Mid-Atlantic Coast and low pressure inland (potentially
an approaching MCS advancing toward the Southeast United States). In
general, south winds should range between 10-15 kt this evening,
then increase to 15-20 kt overnight due a slight increase in the
pressure gradient and low-lvl wind field late. Seas should average
between 2-4 ft.

Conditions should remain below advisory levels through the middle
of next week. Winds will briefly turn NE across the SC waters
on Friday as high pressure builds from the north. Otherwise, S
to SW flow will persist with speeds less than 15 kt and seas 4 ft
or less.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...DPB/JRL
MARINE...DPB/JRL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston SC
346 PM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-092000-
Charleston Harbor-
Waters from South Santee River to Edisto Beach SC out 20 NM-
Waters from Edisto Beach SC to Savannah GA out 20 NM-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA out 20 NM, including
Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA from 20 to 60 NM-
346 PM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.

GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-042>045-047>052-092000-
Jenkins-Screven-Candler-Bulloch-Effingham-Tattnall-Evans-
Inland Bryan-Coastal Bryan-Inland Chatham-Coastal Chatham-Long-
Inland Liberty-Coastal Liberty-Inland McIntosh-Coastal McIntosh-
Allendale-Hampton-Inland Colleton-Dorchester-Inland Berkeley-
Inland Jasper-Beaufort-Coastal Colleton-Charleston-Coastal Jasper-
Tidal Berkeley-
346 PM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Georgia and
southeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Severe Thunderstorms: A few stronger thunderstorms producing gusty
winds and brief heavy rainfall are possible late this afternoon into
the evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
322 PM EDT WED JUN 08 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0319 PM     TSTM WND GST     SUMMERVILLE AIRPORT     33.06N  80.28W
06/08/2022  M49 MPH          DORCHESTER         SC   AWOS

            THE SUMMERVILLE AIRPORT (KDYB) MEASURED A 43 KNOT (49
            MPH) WIND GUST.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS2200590

BSH

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
407 PM EDT WED JUN 08 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0344 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSW SUMMERVILLE       32.99N  80.19W
06/08/2022                   DORCHESTER         SC   911 CALL CENTER

            DORCHESTER COUNTY DISPATCH REPORTED A TREE DOWN ON A
            CAMPER IN THE 100 BLOCK OF OLIN CIRCLE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS2200592

BSH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
412 PM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022

GAZ088-100-101-SCZ042-082045-
Bulloch-Screven-Effingham-Hampton-
412 PM EDT Wed Jun 8 2022

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SCREVEN, BULLOCH,
EFFINGHAM AND HAMPTON COUNTIES...

At 412 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Oliver, or 13 miles south of Sylvania,
moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar Indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Sylvania, Newington, Oliver, Altman, Captolo, Leefield, Shirley and
Dover.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Report damage directly to the Charleston National Weather Service at
888-383-2024 when it is safe to do so. You can also email your
report to nws.charlestonsc@noaa.gov.

&&

LAT...LON 3283 8145 3279 8142 3278 8143 3277 8142
      3277 8143 3276 8141 3275 8141 3275 8139
      3258 8125 3240 8162 3267 8179
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 241DEG 27KT 3256 8158

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

SPR