Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Charleston, SC

081 
WWUS52 KCHS 180001
SVSCHS

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
801 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022

GAC103-165-251-SCC005-049-053-180045-
/O.CON.KCHS.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-220618T0045Z/
Screven GA-Jenkins GA-Effingham GA-Hampton SC-Allendale SC-Jasper SC-
801 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM EDT
FOR PORTIONS OF SCREVEN...JENKINS...EFFINGHAM...HAMPTON...ALLENDALE
AND JASPER COUNTIES...

At 800 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Ashton to near Woodcliff, moving southeast at 25
mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include: 
Allendale, Sylvania, Hampton, Yemassee, Lake Warren State Park,
Varnville, Estill, Fairfax, Brunson, Hiltonia, Gifford, Newington,
Furman, Oliver and Scotia.

This warning includes I-95 in South Carolina between mile markers 40
and 42.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Report damage directly to the Charleston National Weather Service at
888-383-2024 when it is safe to do so.

&&

LAT...LON 3295 8186 3291 8176 3304 8156 3310 8161
      3316 8154 3311 8137 3312 8120 3304 8109
      3290 8099 3283 8090 3272 8083 3245 8153
      3249 8155 3251 8161 3292 8197
TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 315DEG 20KT 3304 8101 3280 8174 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

$$

819 
WWUS52 KCHS 180005
SVSCHS

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
805 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022

GAC103-165-251-SCC005-049-053-180045-
/O.CON.KCHS.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-220618T0045Z/
Screven GA-Jenkins GA-Effingham GA-Hampton SC-Allendale SC-Jasper SC-
805 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM EDT
FOR PORTIONS OF SCREVEN...JENKINS...EFFINGHAM...HAMPTON...ALLENDALE
AND JASPER COUNTIES...

At 804 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Ashton to near Woodcliff, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Emergency management.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include: 
Allendale, Sylvania, Hampton, Yemassee, Lake Warren State Park,
Varnville, Estill, Fairfax, Brunson, Hiltonia, Gifford, Newington,
Furman, Oliver and Scotia.

This warning includes I-95 in South Carolina between mile markers 40
and 42.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

This is a DANGEROUS SITUATION. These storms are producing wind 
damage across Screven County. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy 
structure and stay away from windows.
 
Report damage directly to the Charleston National Weather Service at
888-383-2024 when it is safe to do so.

&&

LAT...LON 3295 8186 3291 8176 3304 8156 3310 8161
      3316 8154 3311 8137 3312 8120 3304 8109
      3290 8099 3283 8090 3272 8083 3245 8153
      3249 8155 3251 8161 3292 8197
TIME...MOT...LOC 0004Z 315DEG 20KT 3303 8100 3279 8173 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

$$

114 
WWUS52 KCHS 180030
SVSCHS

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
830 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022

GAC165-180039-
/O.CAN.KCHS.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-220618T0045Z/
Jenkins GA-
830 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF JENKINS COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The immediate risk for severe weather has ended. 

LAT...LON 3284 8164 3311 8137 3312 8120 3304 8109
      3290 8099 3283 8090 3272 8084 3245 8153
      3249 8155 3251 8161 3267 8175
TIME...MOT...LOC 0029Z 315DEG 20KT 3294 8089 3270 8162 

$$

GAC103-251-SCC005-049-053-180045-
/O.CON.KCHS.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-220618T0045Z/
Screven GA-Effingham GA-Hampton SC-Allendale SC-Jasper SC-
830 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM EDT
FOR PORTIONS OF SCREVEN...EFFINGHAM...HAMPTON...ALLENDALE AND JASPER
COUNTIES...

At 829 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Islandton to Altman, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Emergency management.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include: 
Allendale, Sylvania, Hampton, Yemassee, Lake Warren State Park,
Varnville, Estill, Fairfax, Brunson, Gifford, Newington, Furman,
Oliver, Scotia and Sycamore.

This warning includes I-95 in South Carolina between mile markers 40
and 41.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is an EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. These storms are producing 
widespread wind damage across portions of the area. SEEK SHELTER NOW 
inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows.

Report damage directly to the Charleston National Weather Service at
888-383-2024 when it is safe to do so.

&&

LAT...LON 3284 8164 3311 8137 3312 8120 3304 8109
      3290 8099 3283 8090 3272 8084 3245 8153
      3249 8155 3251 8161 3267 8175
TIME...MOT...LOC 0029Z 315DEG 20KT 3294 8089 3270 8162 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
448 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the region early this weekend,
followed by high pressure for next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Aloft, the center of a deep-layered anticyclone aloft will
continue to erode through the night. An upper trough across the
Northeast will dig southward allowing a cold front to drop in
from the north overnight, pushing through at least the northern
half of the forecast area before weakening/stalling. Outflow
from a long-lived MCS across the Tennessee Valley has sparked
some convection across the SC and GA Midlands which will
continue to evolve through the evening. Activity should remain
isolated as a weak cap still remains in place over the eastern
half of the CWA. As shortwave energy rounds the upper ridge
through this evening, upper forcing will increase coverage
despite a redeveloping capping inversion. Models largely show
convection merging into a MCS over central South Carolina,
dropping into the Charleston Tri-County region late this
evening which is expected to then head southeast and exit
offshore at some location along the southeast South Carolina
coastline. SPC still maintains a Slight Risk in place for severe
thunderstorms across southeast South Carolina and southeast
Georgia. This sounds fair given current MLCAPE values of
1000-1500 J/kg will remain through sunset before dwindling
thereafter. DCAPE values top out around 1300-1400 J/kg, which
will support a mostly damaging wind threat within strong to
severe thunderstorms. Some small hail can not be ruled out as
any hail that forms aloft should melt quite a bit before
reaching the ground given the warm conditions below the sub-
cloud layer. Given the lack of shear, MCS organization and
propagation will be highly dependent on cold pool generation and
maintenance.

Convection is expected to cease over land areas by early
tonight despite the advancement of the front overnight, since
most areas should be worked over. Some models continue to show
showers/t-storms reaching as far south as the southeast Georgia
coast, however it will be hard to get convection to redevelop
with limited instability and a decent cap in place.

Heat indices are beginning to top out with values around
105-107 for all but the Georgia coastal zones where conditions
will remain shy of Heat Advisory criteria. No changes have been
made to the current Heat Advisory, although there is a chance
tstms could cool some areas prior to its 7PM expiration time.
Lows tonight will range from the lower to mid 70s with upper 70s
at the beaches and Downtown Charleston.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Saturday: The mid-levels will consist of a strong trough to our
northeast and a strong ridge to our west, leading to NNW flow
overhead. At the surface, a weak cold front is expected to be spread
across our inland counties in the morning. The front will slowly
move closer to the coast in the afternoon, then shift south of our
area in the evening and overnight. South of the front will be decent
moisture, with PWATs approaching 2". In fact, models hint at some
sea breeze convection along our GA coast late in the afternoon.
Though, it won't be too strong or widespread due to a pinned sea
breeze. Additionally, instability won't be as high as previous days,
so the risk of strong or severe storms is low. Therefore, we only
have slight chance POPs. Further north, across our SC counties,
models keep it mainly dry due to even less instability. The forecast
reflects this. As for temperatures, due to the location and movement
of the front, highs are expected to remain several degrees above
normal. The highest temperatures should be across our GA counties.
Heat indices may exceed 105 degrees in some of our GA counties. But
we held off on issuing any Heat Advisories because the timing and
areal coverage is still questionable. Overnight, drier air will work
in from the north, leading to lower dew points and temperatures.
Minimum temperatures should be a few degrees below normal,
especially across our SC counties.

Sunday and Monday: The strong mid-level trough to our northeast and
strong mid-level ridge to our west will slowly shift eastward with
time. Though, NNW flow should prevail overhead. At the surface, High
pressure will build in from the north on Sunday, prevailing across
our region by Monday. The high will bring our area dry conditions
with some afternoon fair weather clouds. We don't have any
mentionable POPs either days. Temperatures will be a few degrees
below normal on Sunday, then rising to near normal on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The models are very consistent, indicating mid-level ridging
building across the region with time. Likewise, surface high
pressure will to prevail. This will lead to dry conditions and
temperatures rising above normal. We could have another round of
Heat Advisories starting the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A mesoscale convective system is expected to move across the
region later this afternoon into the evening hours. Newest
models still show a number of possible scenarios mainly with a
lack of confidence in the timing. It does appear tstm impacts
will become increasingly possible after 21z. A TEMPO for TSRA
with MVFR vsbys remains in the TAF for all terminals with slight
differences regarding the timing; KJZI/KCHS most likely will
sustain longer impacts with a TEMPO from 23Z-02Z, and KSAV has
been adjusted to 23Z-01Z. Refining the timing of the cessation
of convection is very possible with the next TAF considering
some remnant showers/tstms could linger beyond those periods.
Gusty winds and wind shifts will accompany any tstms this
afternoon and evening.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: There is a potential for a cluster of strong/severe
tstms to move over the waters this evening into the early
overnight period bringing hazardous marine conditions with
gusty winds in excess of 34 kt, low vsbys in heavy rainfall and
frequent cloud-to-water lightning. Otherwise, west to southwest
winds will prevail with speeds 10-15 kt, except closer to 15-20
kt at times over the Charleston County waters. Seas will
average 2-4 ft.

Extended Marine: The cold front is expected to be just inland
Saturday morning. The front will slowly move closer to the coast
Saturday afternoon, then shift south of our area Saturday night. The
surface pressure gradient is expected to strengthen Saturday night,
leading to elevated winds/seas. However, conditions should remain
just below Small Craft Advisory criteria. High pressure will build
in from the north on Sunday, prevailing across our region most of
next week.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>116-118-137-138-140.
SC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for SCZ040-042>045-
     047>052.
MARINE...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...BRM
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BRM
MARINE...BRM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston SC
644 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022

GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-042>045-047>052-182245-
Jenkins-Screven-Candler-Bulloch-Effingham-Tattnall-Evans-
Inland Bryan-Coastal Bryan-Inland Chatham-Coastal Chatham-Long-
Inland Liberty-Coastal Liberty-Inland McIntosh-Coastal McIntosh-
Allendale-Hampton-Inland Colleton-Dorchester-Inland Berkeley-
Inland Jasper-Beaufort-Coastal Colleton-Charleston-Coastal Jasper-
Tidal Berkeley-
644 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 387 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Georgia and
southeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.

AMZ330-350-352-354-182245-
Charleston Harbor-
Waters from South Santee River to Edisto Beach SC out 20 NM-
Waters from Edisto Beach SC to Savannah GA out 20 NM-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA out 20 NM, including
Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary-
644 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 387 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.

AMZ370-372-374-182245-
Waters from South Santee River SC to Edisto Beach SC extending from
20 to 40 NM-
Waters from Edisto Beach SC to Savannah GA extending from 20 to
40 NM-Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA from 20 to 60 NM-
644 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Severe Thunderstorms: Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will move
into the coastal waters this evening. A few of these thunderstorms
could become strong to severe with winds in excess of 35 knots.
Small hail, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning and locally heavy
rainfall could also occur. The risk for severe weather will be
highest from roughly 8 PM until midnight. Be ready to take quick
action should threatening weather approach or if a Special Marine
Warning is issued.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
705 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022

GAZ088-SCZ040-172330-
Screven-Allendale-
705 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SCREVEN AND ALLENDALE
COUNTIES...

At 704 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Millett, or 7 miles southeast of Savannah
River Site, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph and up to penny sized hail.

SOURCE...Radar Indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
         trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
         unlikely.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Allendale, Fairfax, Sycamore, Ulmer, Seigling, Millett, Martin and
Barton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify. Be certain to monitor local radio and TV
stations as well as local cable TV outlets for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect. Thunderstorms can produce
large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes suddenly, sometimes
with little or no warning. Be alert for rapidly changing weather
conditions and be ready to act quickly if severe weather is observed
or a warning is issued.

&&

LAT...LON 3311 8137 3312 8120 3305 8113 3305 8110
      3303 8108 3296 8121 3293 8124 3278 8146
      3297 8166 3304 8156 3307 8160 3309 8160
      3308 8161 3310 8161 3316 8154
TIME...MOT...LOC 2304Z 310DEG 22KT 3316 8160

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
725 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022

GAZ087-088-SCZ040-042-043-180000-
Jenkins-Screven-Allendale-Hampton-Inland Colleton-
725 PM EDT Fri Jun 17 2022

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SCREVEN, JENKINS,
HAMPTON, COLLETON AND ALLENDALE COUNTIES...

At 725 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near Martin to near
Wadley, and moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph and up to penny sized hail.

SOURCE...Radar Indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to plants,
         trees and crops is possible. Damage to windshields is
         unlikely.

Some locations in the path of these storms include...
Allendale, Millen, Sylvania, Hampton, Lake Warren State Park, Butts,
Varnville and Fairfax.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify. Be certain to monitor local radio and TV
stations as well as local cable TV outlets for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect. Thunderstorms can produce
large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes suddenly, sometimes
with little or no warning. Be alert for rapidly changing weather
conditions and be ready to act quickly if severe weather is observed
or a warning is issued.

&&

LAT...LON 3289 8212 3292 8208 3292 8195 3295 8186
      3291 8176 3304 8156 3310 8161 3316 8152
      3311 8137 3312 8120 3303 8108 3304 8104
      3293 8092 3271 8148 3263 8180 3264 8180
      3265 8184 3261 8201 3266 8208 3281 8215
TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 305DEG 25KT 3312 8142 3285 8233

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH