Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Charleston, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
413 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through tonight, then cooler high
pressure will build over the area through the middle of next
week. Atlantic low pressure will produce unsettled weather
later next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 188 is in effect until 10 PM.

A surface low pressure centered north of the region will shift
eastward across the US over the next few hours as an associated
cold front moves closer. Across the region, surface based
instability over 2000 J/kg and deep moisture will lead to
scattered showers for the rest of the afternoon and into the
evening. In regards to the severe potential, severe
thunderstorms are likely to persist until late this evening.
With DCAPE around 900 J/kg, damaging winds will be the main
threat, hence the Severe Thunderstorm Watch. Although, the SIG
Hail parameter is over 1 and the Sig Tor parameter is over 2 in
some areas so cannot rule out large hail or an isolated tornado.

By late this evening, the majority of the showers should move
offshore followed by the cold front, which will be just offshore
by daybreak. One last night of lows in the 60s to 70s is
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
This period will feature little/no rainfall and a transition to
below-normal temperatures.

Saturday: The surface cold front will continue to shift offshore.
Meanwhile, the upper trough and associated surface low will deepen
along the NC coast. This will result in gust W/SW winds, with gusts
as high as 30-35 mph possible, along with temperatures about 5-10
degrees cooler than those of Friday afternoon. Also note, wrap
around moisture could support a few diurnal showers across far
northern counties. However, downslope flow/area consensus points
toward a relatively dry environment, so PoPs in this area are capped
below 15 percent without any explicit mention of precipitation
Friday afternoon/early evening.

Saturday night and Sunday: A dry secondary/reinforcing cold front is
expected to cross the region, followed by even cooler high pressure
building from the north Saturday night. As a result, by early Sunday
morning lows should average in the 50s across the region, and Sunday
highs should range from the lower/middle 70s north to close to 80F
far south.

Sunday night: Temperatures at some areas away from the immediate
coast will fall into the 40s, some 10-15F below normal for early
May.

Monday: High pressure will provide dry and cool conditions with
highs mainly in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through midweek, high pressure will prevail, and temperatures will
moderate to around normal. Meanwhile, the upper level low which
contributed to the Friday severe weather threat will become blocked
by a building ridge of high pressure to the north and will cut off
over the western Atlantic. Thereafter, the upper low and associated
surface cyclone will meander and could eventually retrograde SW
toward the southeast coast. While many scenario details remain
uncertain, the probability for precipitation and coastal impacts
including hazardous marine and surf conditions will increase through
the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Gusty winds will impact all three terminals and linger through
sunset. Showers and thunderstorms will move across the terminals
this afternoon/evening. Best guess at timing has impacts around
sunset. VCTS will remain in the forecast for all three terminal
sites for late afternoon into mid evening with prevailing -TSRA
for a few hours. Once showers/storms exit the region, a period
of MVFR conditions is possible later this evening before
clearing overnight.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. W/SW winds could gust to at least 25
knots Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Gusty winds will persist over the waters ahead of an
approaching cold front. Small Craft Advisories will be in effect
through the period for gusts up to 30 knots. In showers and
thunderstorms, winds could be higher and rough seas are
possible.

Elevated winds/seas will remain common through this period.

Saturday: In response to deepening low pressure near the NC coast,
offshore winds should gust to around 25 knots across the marine
area. As a result, we extended ongoing Small Craft Advisories issued
Friday through much of Saturday.

Saturday night through Thursday: A secondary cold front will
cross the waters, and winds will veer toward the
north/northeast. While winds/seas could initially settle back to
below SCA levels, northeast winds should surge and seas should
build Sunday night. Thereafter, between high pressure and
Atlantic low pressure meandering just off the coast, conditions
appear favorable for an extended period of at least SCA
conditions, and gales could even develop if the Atlantic low
advanced closer to our coast late next week. of particular
concern, the rip current risk could ramp up significantly next
week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Minimum Temps for May 6:
KCHS: 70F, last set in 2018
KSAV: 73F, last set in 1984
KCXM: 73F, last set in 1953

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ330-350-
     352-354-374.

&&

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston SC
352 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

AMZ330-350-352-354-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-042>045-
047>052-072000-
Charleston Harbor-
Waters from South Santee River to Edisto Beach SC out 20 NM-
Waters from Edisto Beach SC to Savannah GA out 20 NM-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA out 20 NM, including
Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary-Jenkins-Screven-Candler-Bulloch-
Effingham-Tattnall-Evans-Inland Bryan-Coastal Bryan-Inland Chatham-
Coastal Chatham-Long-Inland Liberty-Coastal Liberty-Inland McIntosh-
Coastal McIntosh-Allendale-Hampton-Inland Colleton-Dorchester-
Inland Berkeley-Inland Jasper-Beaufort-Coastal Colleton-Charleston-
Coastal Jasper-Tidal Berkeley-
352 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 188 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters,
southeast Georgia and southeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any reports of hazardous weather including, but not
limited to large hail, damaging winds and flooding to the National
Weather Service in Charleston at 1-888-383-2024.

AMZ374-072000-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA from 20 to 60 NM-
352 PM EDT Fri May 6 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Strong Thunderstorms: Strong thunderstorms could produce wind gusts
exceeding 35 knots, as well as frequent lightning and poor
visibility in very heavy rain this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any reports of hazardous weather including, but not
limited to large hail, damaging winds and flooding to the National
Weather Service in Charleston at 1-888-383-2024.

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