Gale Warning 9, NWS Caribou, ME

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
558 PM EST Thu Feb 3 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will stall off the coast this evening. Low pressure
will track northeast along the front late tonight through Friday
then exit across the Maritimes Friday night. High pressure will
cross the region later Saturday through Sunday then exit across
the Maritimes Sunday night. A frontal boundary will stall
across the region Monday. Low pressure will track east of the
region Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
600 PM Update: PoPs were increased closer to 100 percent across
far Nrn areas given wntr wx hdlns and sn intensities were
recalculated for the Rgn into the ovrngt and Fri morn using the
hrly sn intensity tool. Otherwise, fcst hrly temps/dwpts were
updated into the ovrngt hrs from latest sfc obs trends with
little chg from the prev fcst hrly temps/dwpts thru this tm
frame and no chgs to fcst ovrngt low temps attm.

Prev Disc: Precipitation will get steadier and heavier through
the overnight as a wave of low pressure tracks northeast from
the Appalachians toward the Gulf of Maine along the front.
Latest guidance continues to favor lighter snow over the far
north with more moderate to heavy snow over central areas and
eventually interior Downeast. Low level colder air will continue
to press south as the storm system nears tonight. However, the
approaching low will hold warmer air in aloft. This will result
in an expanding corridor of sleet and freezing rain Downeast
with more sleet just inland from the coast and freezing rain
along the coast as the colder air undercuts the warmer air
aloft. The heaviest and steadiest period of precipitation, snow
well inland and mix nearer the coast, will occur from late
tonight through Friday morning. Snow will diminish in intensity
Friday afternoon with a mix Downeast changing to snow before
ending late in the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure will exit across Nova Scotia Friday night. Early snow
will taper to snow showers overnight. An upper level trof will cross
the region Saturday, with surface high pressure building toward the
region late. Expect mostly cloudy skies, along with a slight
chance/chance of snow showers, early Saturday. Clouds then begin to
decrease Saturday afternoon. High pressure crosses the region
Saturday night with mostly clear/partly cloudy skies. High pressure
begins to exit across the Maritimes Sunday, with a light
south/southeast return flow developing during the afternoon along
with increasing clouds. Temperatures will be at below normal levels
Saturday/Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A frontal boundary will sink toward northern Maine Sunday night.
Expect mostly cloudy skies Sunday night, along with a slight chance
of snow showers late. Weakening low pressure will approach from the
west Monday with a nearly stationary frontal boundary remaining
across the region. Expect mostly cloudy skies along with a
slight chance of snow showers Monday. The remnants of the
surface low, along with an upper trof, cross the region Tuesday.
Uncertainty also exists regarding the location of a possible
ocean low east of the region Tuesday. Expect mostly cloudy skies
along with a chance of snow or snow showers across the region
Tuesday. High pressure should build across the region Wednesday
with partly cloudy skies. A cold front could then approach later
Thursday with partly/mostly cloudy skies along with a slight
chance of snow showers in advance of the front. Near normal
level temperatures are expected Monday. Above normal level
temperatures are expected Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Conditions will lower to IFR this evening and remain
IFR overnight in snow inland and mix along the coast. Freezing
rain is likely near the coast. IFR conditions on Friday may
improve to MVFR late in the day as snow diminishes. Winds N
tonight and Friday.

SHORT TERM:
Friday night...IFR/LIFR early, MVFR/IFR late. Snow tapering to snow
showers. North/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots.

Saturday...VFR/MVFR early, then VFR. A chance of snow showers early.
North/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20
knots.

Saturday night...VFR. North/northwest winds around 10 knots early,
becoming light.

Sunday...VFR. Light winds, becoming south/southeast 5 to 10 knots.

Sunday night...VFR early, VFR/MVFR late. Variable winds 5 to 10
knots.

Monday through Tuesday. VFR/MVFR, occasional IFR. A chance of
snow showers Monday. A chance of snow Tuesday. Variable winds 5
to 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SCA is expected across the outer waters tonight
then over all the waters Friday as low pressure tracks up along
the front. Seas will build up to 5-6 ft tonight then 7-9 ft on
Friday in response to the storm system tracking up along the
front. Freezing rain is likely near the coast and over the
islands late tonight into Friday.

SHORT TERM: A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all the
waters Friday night into Saturday evening, which could
eventually need extending into Saturday night. Conditions below
small craft advisory levels Sunday. A wintry mix early Friday
night, tapering to snow showers overnight. A chance of snow
showers early Saturday. Light freezing spray Friday
night/Saturday. Moderate freezing spray Saturday night. Light
freezing spray early Sunday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Friday for MEZ002-003.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Friday for MEZ004>006-010-
     011-031-032.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for MEZ001.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Friday for MEZ015>017.
     Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM EST
     Friday for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Friday to 7 PM EST Saturday for
     ANZ052.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for ANZ050-051.

&&

Near Term...VJN
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...VJN/Norcross
Marine...VJN/Norcross