Beach Hazards Statement 6, NWS Caribou, ME

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WHUS41 KCAR 011800
CFWCAR

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Caribou ME
200 PM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022

MEZ029-030-020000-
/O.CON.KCAR.BH.S.0006.000000T0000Z-220702T0000Z/
Coastal Hancock-Coastal Washington-
200 PM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...The warm air temperatures in the upper 70s may cause
  people to underestimate the dangers of the cold water
  temperatures which are currently only in the low to mid 50s.

* WHERE...Coastal Washington and Coastal Hancock Counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Anyone on boats or paddlecraft should use caution 
  and be prepared for immersion. Dress for water temperatures 
  and know how to perform rescues.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Beach Hazards Statement is issued on days when a significant
number of boats and paddlecraft are expected to be out on the
water and when warm air temperatures may cause people to
underestimate the danger of the cold water. Paddle smart from the
start. Always wear your life jacket. Be aware of wind conditions,
tides, and localized currents.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1226 AM EDT Fri Jul 1 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front approaches from the southwest tonight, then lifts
northeast across the area on Friday. A cold front will slowly
approach the area Friday night then slowly cross the region
Saturday followed by Canadian high pressure later Saturday night
and Sunday. Another cold front from the west will approach the
region Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
12:26AM Update...Showers have entered portions of the North
Woods riding along a slowly lifting warm front. These showers
are originating off the triple point back in western Quebec. As
the warm front lifts north tonight showers will increase across
mainly northern areas. Elevated instability is expected to lift
over the far north combined with an increasing SW LLJ which may
be enough to produce a few higher tops capable to product
lightning. Opted to keep isolated thunder for the next several
hours. Lastly had to make adjustments to temperatures since
areas across the north are cooling quickly with light winds and
thin cloud cover. Upper 40s in Oxbow, Smith Brook and Kokadjo
and 44F in Estcourt Station. As clouds increase the temperatures
should begin to hold and remain steady till the warm front
lifts north. Adjustments have been made to temps/dews to reflect
this trend...

Previous Discussion...
Upper level and surface ridging builds tonight. Cumulus fields
will dissolve and radiational cooling can be expected to drop
tonight's lows into the low to mid 50s. Warm frontal clouds
increase later in the night. The warm front crosses late tonight
into early Friday morning. Not expecting much precipitation
with the front, but there is some elevated instability around
daybreak and have added isolated thunderstorms for northern
zones in the early morning hours. The front ushers in a much
warmer and humid air mass for Friday. Temperatures will climb
into the mid to upper 80s as H850 temps surge above 15C. Dew
points will push into the lower 60s. The coast will be a bit
cooler with onshore winds. Stronger southwesterly winds will
arrive and a deep mixed layer will ensure gusts to 25 kts by
afternoon. There's not much moisture or a trigger for convection
until later in the afternoon. The cold front will remain well
north of area into the evening, but a pre-frontal trough is
expected to enter northern Aroostook County in the afternoon
with increasing moisture. The steep low level lapse rates and a
decent low level jet arriving later in the day raises concerns
for gusty winds with any thunderstorms and have added mention in
the forecast. There's some question on how far south to include
PoPs in the afternoon. For now, it's mostly northern Aroostook
County where lift looks sufficient to break the cap.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Friday Night...Area remains under warm, moist, unstable SW flow
ahead of approaching cold front and upper trough. Could be some
showers and storms through the night, with most instability
being elevated rather than surface based. Have chance PoPs
through the night. Mild with lows in the low to mid 60s. Patchy
fog, except areas of fog near the coast.

Saturday...Drier air begins working in from the NW, but much of
the area, especially the SE half, will still be under a moist,
unstable airmass. Good shot at showers and storms, especially
Downeast in the juicier airmass away from the immediate coast.
Can't rule out some stronger storms on Saturday.

Saturday Night...Cold front exits in the evening to the east,
with drier, cooler air filtering in. Any leftover rain far
Downeast should end in the evening.

Sunday...Not as warm and muggy, with highs in the mid 70s to low
80s. Can't rule out an isolated afternoon shower in the north,
but otherwise, partly cloudy to mostly sunny and dry.

Models overall are in good agreement through Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
From Sunday night onward, models are in decent agreement on an
overall pattern of NW flow around an upper low over Northern
Quebec. However, models are not in good agreement in timing of
shortwave troughs in NW flow rotating around the upper low. The
disagreement begins on Monday the 4th. A few models/ensembles
give us a decent system with a somewhat significant amount of
showers and storms, while most models/ensembles keep us dry and
in between shortwaves. Went with chance PoPs north and slight
chance PoPs elsewhere to play things safe for now. For those
looking for a safe bet of the best weather outside for
recreating for the holiday weekend, Sunday is the safest bet.
Model agreement doesn't get any better after Monday. More
confidence in temperatures than in precipitation, with
temperatures likely running somewhat below average.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Expecting VFR conditions through the period. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible late tonight into early Friday
morning with a warm front. These are most likely north of HUL
and GNR. Later in the afternoon, stronger thunderstorms may
impact sites north of HUL and GNR. LLWS is expected later
tonight into early Friday for northern terminals. Southwest winds
will pick up later Friday morning through the afternoon with
gusts to 25kts.

SHORT TERM:
Friday Night...VFR early, generally becoming MVFR/IFR in low
clouds, with higher likelihood of IFR near the coast. Chance of
showers with a slight chance of storms. Light S breeze.

Saturday...Mix of MVFR/VFR, other than early morning IFR near
the coast. Showers and storms possible, best chance BGR and HUL.
S breeze 10-15 kts.

Saturday Night...Generally VFR with light W breeze.

Sunday and Sunday Night...VFR with W breeze 5-10 kts.

Monday and Tuesday. Very low confidence on conditions Mon/Tue
due to uncertainty in timing of weather systems. W breeze 5-10
kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: No advisories or fog is expected. Southwest winds
will increase on Friday, but stability is expected to keep winds
below advisory criteria.

SHORT TERM: Conditions will get close to small craft levels
Friday night and Saturday, but don't have enough confidence to
issue advisory. Also, fog likely with visibilities less than 1
NM over the waters Friday night into Saturday morning.

Conditions improving to easily below small craft levels Saturday
night and persisting into Tuesday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

Near Term...MCW/Sinko
Short Term...Foisy
Long Term...Foisy
Aviation...MCW/Sinko/Foisy
Marine...MCW/Sinko/Foisy

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Caribou ME
304 AM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022

MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-010715-
Northwest Aroostook-Northeast Aroostook-Northern Somerset-
Northern Piscataquis-Northern Penobscot-Southeast Aroostook-
Central Piscataquis-Central Penobscot-Southern Penobscot-
Interior Hancock-Central Washington-Coastal Hancock-
Coastal Washington-Southern Piscataquis-Northern Washington-
304 AM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Highlands Maine,
Coastal DownEast Maine, Far Eastern Maine, Far Northern Maine,
Interior DownEast Maine, North Woods Maine and Penobscot Valley
Maine.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

ANZ050>052-010715-
Coastal Waters from Eastport, ME to Schoodic Point, ME out 25 NM-
Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point, ME to Stonington, ME out 25 NM-
Intra Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point, ME to Stonington, ME-
304 AM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.