Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
236 PM EDT Mon May 23 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak tropical wave will push towards us through the day today.
Abundant moisture combining with instability and weak upper
disturbances moving into the region will keep the chance of
showers and storms in the forecast through Tuesday. Another
stronger upper trough and cold front will approach the region on
Thursday into Friday bringing elevated chances of rain before
drier air moves in over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The first round of showers and thunderstorms have moved through
the area with some isolated damage. The approaching low
pressure system will slide to our northwest later this afternoon
and bring a second round of scattered severe weather to the
area. Some small but strong storms have begun to pop behind this
morning's line, in the southern Midlands and into the CSRA. A
more organized area of scattered thunderstorms associated with
the low itself is now making its way across GA. This line will
consolidate over the next few hours and will move into the CSRA,
then into SC later this evening. Strong to severe thunderstorms
are expected with this line, which has had surprisingly good
agreement across the hi-res members. Low level shear will remain
somewhat limited but will increase to the point for a low end
tornado threat; wind and hail remain more likely severe hazards.
Instability should rebound despite the morning convection with
1000+ ML CAPE expected. So ingredients and storm mode suggest at
least isolated severe thunderstorms. Heavy rain is expected
regardless and flooding is possible, particularly in
urban/typically prone areas. High temps will remain suppressed
today due to ongoing convection, topping out in the low 80's in
most spots. Overnight clouds should keep lows up as well,
falling into the upper 60's.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The middle of this week will be unsettled with high pressure aloft
offshore and a strong upper level trough over The Southern Plains.
Southwest flow will continue to advect low level Gulf of Mexico
moisture into the region with precipitable water values in excess of
1.5 inches. Disturbances riding over the top of the ridge axis are
likely triggers for mainly diurnal convection each day. Expect highs
in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
An upper level trough gradually progresses eastward across the Ohio
River Valley Friday through the holiday day weekend. A cold front
moves across The Midlands and CSRA Friday through Friday Night for a
chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Medium range model guidance diverges on solutions for the holiday
weekend with the GFS slow to eject the upper trough while the EC is
progressive with that feature and has high pressure aloft
building over the Southeast U.S. Convection may return late in
the holiday weekend with low level moisture advecting back into
the region.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR for now, with restrictions possible later today in convection.

AGS hasn't really seen any restrictions, so we managed to avoid
vis and cig restrictions overnight. That likely won't be the
case today, as a weak tropical wave approaches from the west and
brings with it widespread showers and thunderstorms late this
morning and into the afternoon. Confident enough to add the
TEMPO group back to the TAFs, but they are still rather large
time periods as the models waffle back and forth on timing. VIS
restrictions are definitely expected, as rain should be heavy,
and some cig restrictions could occur as well. Expectation is
that the initial line of storms will push towards AGS/DNL by
15z-16z and then impact CAE/CUB/OGB thereafter. There is some
trending towards another round of storms later in the evening,
and with copious moisture, I think it is a possibility. Keep
VCSH to account for this and to not make the TAFs too lengthy.
Winds should be fairly like through the day and out of the south
and southwest. By tonight, convection should wind down and
clouds remain.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Chance of mainly diurnal showers and
thunderstorms and associated restrictions, along with a chance of
mainly late night/morning fog and/or stratus, through the period.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
254 AM EDT Mon May 23 2022

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-
116-135>137-240700-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Chesterfield-McCormick-
Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-Richland-Lee-
Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Calhoun-Clarendon-Bamberg-Northern Lancaster-
Southern Lancaster-Northwestern Orangeburg-Central Orangeburg-
Southeastern Orangeburg-
254 AM EDT Mon May 23 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A cluster of thunderstorms is expected to move through this
afternoon. Some of those storms may be strong to severe, with gusty
winds the primary threat. Expect heavy rain and lightning with any
storm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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