Severe Thunderstorm Warning 75, NWS Columbia, SC

544 
WWUS52 KCAE 271819
SVSCAE

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
219 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022

SCC027-271829-
/O.CAN.KCAE.SV.W.0075.000000T0000Z-220527T1830Z/
Clarendon SC-
219 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN CLARENDON COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Columbia.

LAT...LON 3382 7992 3381 7995 3377 7999 3372 7997
      3372 7998 3369 8006 3385 8017 3392 8003
      3394 7997 3388 7994 3389 7988 3388 7988
TIME...MOT...LOC 1817Z 242DEG 26KT 3395 7973 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
906 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers or thunderstorms are possible today as a cold
front approaches from the west. The best chance of any strong
thunderstorms will be in the eastern CWA. Once the front moves
through, high pressure builds in for the Memorial Day weekend.
Warmer temperatures and afternoon showers and thunderstorm begin
to return by next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
13Z Update: Made some minor adjustments to the grids,
particularly to PoPs where hi-res models were incorporated to
reflect the isolated nature of convection today. While a shower
or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out for the rest of the day
across the entire forecast area, the greatest risk will be along
and east of I-95. This is also the area SPC has outlooked in a
Slight risk for severe weather though most of the convective
activity later today should be focused to our east in the
Charleston and Wilmington CWAs.

Previous Discussion: Widespread cloud cover is present across
the region ahead of an advancing system from the plains through
the Ohio Valley. Currently, decaying thunderstorms are ongoing
across the region and are producing little to no lightning.
These are primarily moving along a weak surface trough that is
noted in surface obs as a wind shift across eastern GA. The
primary cold front is still well to our west across Alabama, and
is slowly moving eastward as is the parent upper- level system.
Expecting showery activity to continue over the coming hours,
with some uptick in activity expected. SPC mesoanalysis reveals
a 500 hPa shortwave/vort max still across southwestern Georgia,
and this should provide forcing for additional showers and
storms. Leaned into the HRRR and NBM 1hr PoPs with the PoPs
through 18z, as they have been doing a good job with convection
currently. There definitely looks to be a strong to severe
threat this evening, as RAP SPC analysis indicated sufficient
(>500 j/kg MLCAPE) across the central and eastern Midlands,
along with >40 knots of effective shear. HRRR soundings are
pretty impressive for the time of day, but they do indicate a
very moist sounding which should help a bit. Still, with
convection beginning to fire in the CSRA again and move into
this environment, we'll have to watch for strong/severe storms
even at this hour of the night. SPC has us in a Marginal Risk
for severe storms through 8a. I think the best chance for
anything severe is going to be in our South Carolina counties.
Lows overnight should generally remain in the upper 60s.

As we get into the day on Friday, model guidance is generally in
good agreement. Pre-frontal convection is expected to redevelop over
Georgia over the coming hours, with the convection slowly developing
northward after 8a into our area. CAMs show the bulk of the precip
quickly pushing into SC and out of the CSRA of GA by 10 am. There is
some discrepancy over what coverage will look like, with the HRRR
showing virtually nothing and other CAMs showing a more scattered to
widespread coverage. Timing agreement is still there, though. As
this line moves eastward, it is expected to encounter an
increasingly unstable environment by late morning across the eastern
Midlands, but I am somewhat skeptical of this. Widespread cloud
cover is currently situated across the region, and this could still
remain a limiting factor late this morning. Additionally, HREF is
showing a bit of an offset between best instability and best shear,
with the bulk of the shear remaining west of the line of convection
later this morning. Instability could be on the order of 500-1000
j/kg, and shear around 30-40 knots in the 6km layer. All in all,
given the uncertainties mentioned above, I am not totally impressed
with the severe threat later this morning across the east. NCAR
Neural Networks and CSU ML Probabilities are not impressive with
this setup at all, so I am inclined to think everything will behave.
SPC does have the central and eastern Midlands outlooked in a Slight
Risk, which feels reasonable at this point. Best timing for severe
will be between 9a and 2p in the central and eastern Midlands, with
damaging winds the most likely hazard. Heavy rainfall and lightning
are also possible. Highs today are tricky, as it will depend on
convective coverage and cloud cover, but with drier air pushing in
this afternoon and good SWly flow, I think temps could get up into
the low and mid 80s, especially in the CSRA and western Midlands.
Quiet weather expected tonight, with party cloud skies, slowly
decreasing dewpoints, and lows in the low and mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
By Saturday morning, the main closed upper low will be moving
north of the area, with a trough axis extending southward into
the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The main low moves into New
England Saturday evening, while the trailing trough begins to
develop into a weak cut-off low in the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico. At the surface, a cold front will be off to the east and
bringing drier air into the area Saturday. The dry conditions
are expected to continue into Sunday morning. There may be some
weak sea-breeze showers by Sunday afternoon, but we may still
have enough dry air over the cwa to help limit much activity, so
have kept a dry forecast. Temperatures will be seasonable with
highs in the mid 80s and lows in the low/mid 60s Saturday and
Saturday night. Warmer conditions return on Sunday, with highs
in the upper 80s to lower 90s, and lows in the middle 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
By Monday, upper ridge will move in north of the cut-off low in
the northeastern gulf, with that pattern lasting into Tuesday.
The the upper ridge moves west, and the low moves into the
western Atlantic. Still expecting the trend for temperatures to
be at or slightly above normal. Rainfall changes mainly confined
to the afternoon and early evening hours each day through the
longer term, with highest pops over the eastern cwa closer to
the sea-breeze.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low clouds continue to be an issue this morning with all
terminals in MVFR or IFR due to ceilings. Conditions should
improve as the morning goes on as drier air starts to work into
the region. The only other concern will be the chance for
isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Have removed
showers from the TAFs at CAE/CUB/OGB but will need to monitor a
line of showers to the west for possible impacts. Any activity
should be past all terminals by 00Z with VFR conditions for the
remainder of the TAF period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...High pressure and dry air is
expected Saturday through Monday with no restrictions expected.
Afternoon aviation restrictions possible on Tuesday as a
coastal low develops.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
330 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-
116-135>137-280730-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Chesterfield-McCormick-
Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-Richland-Lee-
Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Calhoun-Clarendon-Bamberg-Northern Lancaster-
Southern Lancaster-Northwestern Orangeburg-Central Orangeburg-
Southeastern Orangeburg-
330 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A cold front will move into and then through the area today. This
will bring scattered thunderstorms, some possibly severe, to the
forecast area. The Storm Prediction Center continues to have the
eastern Midlands in a Slight Risk today for severe storms as a
result.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed at some point today.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1009 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0516 AM     TSTM WND DMG     ORANGEBURG              33.50N 80.87W
05/27/2022                   ORANGEBURG         SC   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA PHOTOS SHOW A DOWNED TREE NEAR
            THE INTERSECTION OF PARK ST. (STATE RD.
            S-38-244) AND BRANTLYWOOD DR. TIME ESTIMATED
            BY RADAR.

&&

SL