Severe Thunderstorm Warning 144, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
812 PM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Typical July weather continues across the Midlands and CSRA. A
weak surface boundary will begin dropping into the Mid-Atlantic
today then into the forecast area Thursday. This will result in
showers and thunderstorms with the potential for a few strong
to severe thunderstorms, especially on Thursday. The boundary
will then stall over the region through the weekend keeping the
unsettled weather in place.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the northern
and central Midlands until 11 pm. This includes Saluda,
Newberry, Fairfield, Lancaster, Chesterfield, Lexington,
Richland, Kershaw, Sumter and Lee counties.

Skies are partly to mostly cloudy across the CWA as we go into
the early evening hours. A weak s/w continues to move southeast
from NC and Upstate into the Watch Area this evening. With highs
this afternoon in the middle to upper 90s along with abundant
moisture, the atmosphere has become increasingly unstable.
Mixed Layer CAPE is around 3500 j/kg and the Downdraft Cape is
favorable for damaging winds gusts with values around 1000 j/kg.
The main threat with the storms will be strong damaging winds
and hail up to one inch in diameter. A broken line of
thunderstorms is across the Upstate/Piedmont currently and will
continue to move southeast into the warm and unstable airmass.
Expect a few isolated strong/severe will occur early this
evening with more storms to move into the northern/central
Midlands between 730 pm and 10 pm. With such a moist atmosphere,
additionally a threat for locally heavy rain and flash flooding
will be possible.

Tonight...
After the storms pass through the area, expect plenty of cloud
cover and another warm and muggy night. Expect overnight lows
in the mid-70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As the upper ridge begins to slowly retreat to the west, we will
remain on the periphery of the upper ridging. With a surface
boundary remaining in place over the area and dew points remaining
in the 70s. Temperatures likely a bit higher Thursday with more sun
to begin the day across the area, although there will still be
limited mixing allowing the heat index to climb to near 110 across
much of the area and will likely require a Heat Advisory for the
afternoon. Surface convergence will likely lead to pulse
thunderstorms developing in the afternoon across the area with a
shortwave moving into the area by evening, allowing storms to
continue, especially across the northern forecast area. A slight
risk for severe weather remains in place for the entire
forecast area and while shear will remain weak, HiRes ensembles
indicate sbCAPE is expected to exceed 2000 J/kg with dry air
aloft supporting the potential for damaging wind gusts. May get
a bit more organized convection in the form of an MCS that
develops to the NW which could further support damaging wind
gusts into the evening, although that does depend on how
widespread convection during the afternoon is. Temperatures
dropping to the mid 70s Thursday night.

Friday additional shortwaves move along the northern edge of
the ridge which will happen to be very close to the forecast
area allowing additional widespread convection to develop. Some
disagreements to timing among models limit the potential for
severe weather as this pattern presents a bit lower than average
predictability. This also leads to a bit more uncertainty with
respect to temperature as earlier convection will lead to cooler
temps for the day. Put in general terms: we won't get a break
from the heat and humidity. For both Thursday and Friday, PWATs
will be above the 90th percentile and storms will likely be
mostly slow moving. As a result, storms may produce flash
flooding, especially in poor drainage areas, especially if
storms begin to train over the same area. Another mild night
expected Friday with temperatures dropping into the mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Ensembles support in the long term of a break down of the ridge
which will lead to a bit cooler conditions for the area but also
remaining unsettled. A moisture gradient is depicted in ensemble
means but the vast majority of GEFS ensemble members still
continue to support PWATs over an inch and a half throughout the
forecast area. A surface boundary will likely be near or just
south of the area. This will support a continued summertime
pattern with afternoon showers and storms focused along the
boundary. Temperatures will continue to recover to near normal
by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mostly VFR Conditions Expected Outside of Showers and
Thunderstorms...

Moist and unstable environment across the region this evening.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms moving into central SC from
the Upstate. Expect these storms to move near the CAE and CUB
terminals this evening with brief visibility restrictions and
may also impact OGB a little later....after 03z-04z. The storms
should remain northeast of the AGS and DNL terminals and VFR
will continue in that area. The showers and thunderstorms should
push southeast of the area by midnight and expect VFR overnight
with mainly mid level ceilings. Boundary layer should remain
mixed and fog not expected toward morning. Cumulus will develop
late in the morning Thursday. Scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms expected again with brief restrictions at times as
the air mass remains moist and unstable with some upper level
forcing possibly enhancing convection.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Expect daily restrictions in
afternoon and evening thunderstorms through the weekend. Morning
low clouds and/or fog will also be possible.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
458 AM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-
116-135>137-070900-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Chesterfield-McCormick-
Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-Richland-Lee-
Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Calhoun-Clarendon-Bamberg-Northern Lancaster-
Southern Lancaster-Northwestern Orangeburg-Central Orangeburg-
Southeastern Orangeburg-
458 AM EDT Wed Jul 6 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A surface boundary will move into Central NC today creating the
potential for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon into the
late evening hours. The main severe hazard with these thunderstorms
will be damaging wind gusts. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The surface boundary will move into the Pee Dee and Central Midlands
Thursday. This will result in the potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms across most of the Midlands and Central Savannah River
Area Thursday afternoon into the late evening hours. The main severe
hazard with these thunderstorms will be damaging wind gusts. Locally
heavy rainfall is also possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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