River Flood Warning 12, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
841 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Chance for severe weather across the region today as a line of
showers and strong thunderstorms move through. An additional
system will move through on Wednesday, with strong storms also
possible with that passage. Drier air will finally return by the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Active weather has moved to the east of the area, leaving partly
cloudy skies in its wake. Temperatures will only very slowly
fall overnight with cloud cover and wind keeping overnight temps
well above normal. The chances of rain are very low for the
rest of the overnight hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A lingering boundary will likely be just south of the area
Wednesday as some drier air moves into the area early.
Southwesterly surface flow will allow for favorable surface
destabilization, along with cooling aloft. As a shortwave moves
through the southern forecast area and this surface boundary
lifts northward as a warm front, expect widespread convection to
develop in the southern forecast area, more scattered across the
northern area. A bit of a concern, especially towards the CSRA
and around Augusta with mid-level lapse rates approaching
8deg/km and 35 knots at 850mb which will at least support
organized storms. While the shear will not be as impressive as
Tuesday and forecast soundings indicate speed shear, storms may
produce large hail and damaging wind gusts. There is a bit of
uncertainty as to exactly where this surface boundary sets up
but if convection develops earlier farther south it could limit
the destabilization and moisture transport into the area. Expect
temperatures to warm into the upper 70s to low 80s. Overnight,
the cold front will approach from the west with warm advection
continuing overnight. Temperatures will remain in the low to mid
60s.

By Thursday, the cold front will be pushing into the area. There
is a chance of destabilization in the far eastern forecast area
late morning into early afternoon which may lead to thunderstorm
development but dry air will quickly push in. Showers will taper
off from west to east with breezy winds behind the front out of
the west. Cold advection will strengthen overnight Thursday with
temperatures dropping into the mid to upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An unseasonably deep and cut off upper level low pressure system
will be over the Great Lakes on Friday and then slowly open up and
lift into New England this weekend. A very tight H5 gradient results
in windy weather on Friday and breezy conditions on Saturday.
Much below H5 heights and thicknesses will bring much below
normal temperatures Friday through Sunday. Will need to monitor
the frost potential, especially as the gradient weakens Sunday
morning which would allow for better radiational cooling.

High pressure aloft builds into the region Monday through Tuesday
which allows for continued dry weather and temperatures warming to
above normal levels for mid April.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Deteriorating conditions through early evening.

An approaching low pressure system will bring in scattered
thunderstorms to the TAF sites along a warm front in the coming
hours. Ceilings will decrease as the warm
front lifts north with MVFR likely along with IFR/LIFR
conditions within thunderstorms. Increasing moisture will allow
for some heavy thunderstorms, and a strong low level jet will
bring strong frequent gusts in excess of 25 kt. Occasional gusts
of near 40 kt are possible at Augusta terminals this afternoon
and thunderstorm coverage will become widespread. The line will
shift out by 00z and ceilings will lift to VFR for a time. Winds
will become more southwesterly as the system pushes out late
tonight, but the strong low level jet may warrant a LLWS group
later as surface winds begin to decrease.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible in widespread
showers and thunderstorms again Wednesday night into Thursday
as a series of disturbances/frontal boundaries cross the region.
Of concern is the elevated potential for severe thunderstorms
Wednesday evening ahead of a cold front.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
818 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-
116-135>137-070030-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Chesterfield-McCormick-
Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-Richland-Lee-
Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Calhoun-Clarendon-Bamberg-Northern Lancaster-
Southern Lancaster-Northwestern Orangeburg-Central Orangeburg-
Southeastern Orangeburg-
818 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

An approaching cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Strong damaging winds, isolated
tornadoes, and heavy rainfall will all be possible ahead of this cold
front.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed on Wednesday.

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