Alert archive / New York / Winter Storm Warnings in 2022

Winter Storm Warning 2, NWS Buffalo, NY

February 2, 202216 counties in New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this winter storm warning at Feb 2, 2022, 3:55 AM EST for 16 counties in New York. It took effect at Feb 2, 2022, 10:00 PM EST. It was in force for 39 hr. 60 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Feb 2, 2022, 3:55 AM EST (08:55 UTC)
In effect from
Feb 2, 2022, 10:00 PM EST
Expired
Feb 4, 2022, 1:00 PM EST
In force
39 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

Counties Allegany County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY, Cayuga County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Livingston County, NY, Monroe County, NY, Niagara County, NY, Ontario County, NY, Orleans County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Wayne County, NY, Wyoming County, NY

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 90 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:59 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Feb 3, 9:00 AM ESTSNOW 7.52 E Niagara Falls, NYSTORM TOTAL SNOWFALL. CO-OP OBSERVER STATION IAGN6 NIAGARA FALLS.
Feb 3, 12:00 PM ESTSNOW 3.81 Wnw Alden, NY
Feb 3, 1:00 PM ESTSNOW 45 Nw Springville, NY
Feb 3, 2:00 PM ESTSNOW 3.8Sardinia, NY
Feb 3, 2:00 PM ESTSNOW 3.92 Ene Kenmore, NY
Feb 3, 2:00 PM ESTSNOW 54 Nw North Tonawanda, NY
Feb 3, 2:25 PM ESTSNOW 3.5Rochester, NY
Feb 3, 3:45 PM ESTSNOW 4.51 Sw Rapids, NY
Feb 3, 3:45 PM ESTSNOW 4.5Orchard Park, NY
Feb 3, 4:00 PM ESTSNOW 52 Ene Kenmore, NY
Feb 3, 4:00 PM ESTSNOW 5.5Hamburg, NY
Feb 3, 4:00 PM ESTSNOW 6.4Perrysburg, NY
Feb 3, 4:00 PM ESTSNOW 72 Sw Forestville, NY
Feb 3, 4:20 PM ESTSNOW 5.31 Nw Williamsville, NY
Feb 3, 4:30 PM ESTSNOW 4.3Jamestown, NY
Feb 3, 4:43 PM ESTSNOW 43 Ene Greece, NY
Feb 3, 4:45 PM ESTSNOW 5.4East Aurora, NY
Feb 3, 5:15 PM ESTSNOW 6.34 Nw Eden, NY
Feb 3, 5:43 PM ESTSNOW 4.53 Nnw Greece, NY
Feb 3, 6:00 PM ESTSNOW 4.32 Ne Honeoye Falls, NY
Feb 3, 6:00 PM ESTSNOW 55 E Great Valley, NY
Feb 3, 6:00 PM ESTSNOW 6Silver Creek, NY
Feb 3, 6:00 PM ESTSNOW 6.33 Se West Seneca, NY
Feb 3, 6:00 PM ESTSNOW 6.54 Nw North Tonawanda, NY
Feb 3, 6:00 PM ESTSNOW 9.5Silver Creek, NYCORRECTS A PREVIOUS SNOW REPORT FROM SILVER CREEK.
Feb 3, 7:00 PM ESTSNOW 3.6Rochester Airport, NY
Feb 3, 7:00 PM ESTSNOW 4Rochester Airport, NYCORRECTS PREVIOUS SNOW REPORT FROM ROCHESTER AIRPORT.
Feb 3, 7:00 PM ESTSNOW 5Corfu, NYSNOWFALL 7AM TO 7PM.
Feb 3, 7:00 PM ESTSNOW 5.82 E Stafford, NY
Feb 3, 7:00 PM ESTSNOW 6.2Buffalo Airport, NYSTORM TOTAL.
Feb 3, 7:00 PM ESTSNOW 6.81 Nw Williamsville, NY
Feb 3, 7:00 PM ESTSNOW 7.51 Sw Rapids, NY
Feb 3, 8:15 PM ESTSNOW 4.31 Wsw Palmyra, NY
Feb 3, 8:20 PM ESTSNOW 6.51 W Kenmore, NY
Feb 3, 8:40 PM ESTSNOW 6.52 Sw Kenmore, NY
Feb 3, 8:41 PM ESTSNOW 7Webster, NY
Feb 3, 8:45 PM ESTSNOW 6.6Lancaster, NY
Feb 3, 9:00 PM ESTSNOW 5.82 Ssw Gates-North Gates, NY
Feb 3, 9:00 PM ESTSNOW 7.12 Ne Honeoye Falls, NY
Feb 3, 9:00 PM ESTSNOW 7.41 Wnw Colden, NY
Feb 3, 9:00 PM ESTSNOW 8Clarence, NY
Feb 3, 9:00 PM ESTSNOW 8.4Sardinia, NY
Feb 3, 9:00 PM ESTSNOW 12.7Perrysburg, NYCORRECTS PREVIOUS SNOW REPORT FROM PERRYSBURG.
Feb 3, 9:10 PM ESTSNOW 4Lorraine, NY
Feb 3, 9:15 PM ESTSNOW 4.5Glenfield, NY
Feb 3, 9:15 PM ESTSNOW 6.5East Amherst, NY
Feb 3, 9:20 PM ESTSNOW 9North Java, NY
Feb 3, 9:45 PM ESTSNOW 6.23 E Lowville, NY
Feb 3, 10:00 PM ESTSNOW 7.8Buffalo Airport, NYCORRECTED STORM TOTAL FROM A PREVIOUS REPORT.
Feb 3, 10:35 PM ESTSNOW 10.84 Nw Eden, NY
Feb 3, 10:45 PM ESTSNOW 10.12 Ne Hamburg, NY
Feb 3, 11:00 PM ESTSNOW 8Lockport, NY
Feb 3, 11:15 PM ESTSNOW 10.52 Nw Rochester, NY
Feb 4, 12:01 AM ESTSNOW 9.21 Ne Snyder, NY
Feb 4, 12:05 AM ESTSNOW 7.92 Se Buffalo, NY
Feb 4, 1:00 AM ESTSNOW 7.13 Sse Gates-North Gates, NY
Feb 4, 1:00 AM ESTSNOW 8.82 Sse Williamsville, NY
Feb 4, 1:00 AM ESTSNOW 10.3Hamburg, NY
Feb 4, 2:00 AM ESTSNOW 9.33 Se West Seneca, NY
Feb 4, 2:00 AM ESTSNOW 113 Nne Wolcottsville, NY

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 00:00Z, 8.9 hours before the alert went out and 87 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 00:00Z on 2022-02-02Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 00:00Z on 2022-02-02The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 316 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2309 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
41 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
316 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
358 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

163 
WWUS41 KBUF 020855
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
355 AM EST Wed Feb 2 2022

NYZ001-010-019-020-085-021700-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0006.220203T0300Z-220204T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.W.0002.220203T0300Z-220204T1500Z/
Niagara-Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Buffalo, Jamestown, Olean,
Orchard Park, and Springville
355 AM EST Wed Feb 2 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 12
  inches. Greatest accumulations expected Thursday and Thursday
  Night.

* WHERE...Niagara, Erie, Chautauqua, and Cattaraugus counties.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening 
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ002-003-011>013-021-021700-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0006.220203T0300Z-220204T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.W.0002.220203T0300Z-220204T1800Z/
Orleans-Monroe-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Allegany-
Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Batavia, Warsaw, 
Geneseo, and Wellsville
355 AM EST Wed Feb 2 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM
EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 12
  inches. Greatest accumulations expected Thursday and Thursday
  Night.

* WHERE...Orleans, Monroe, Genesee, Wyoming, Livingston, and 
  Allegany counties.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ004>008-014-021700-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0006.220203T0300Z-220204T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.W.0002.220203T0600Z-220204T1800Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Ontario-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, Watertown, 
Lowville, and Canandaigua
355 AM EST Wed Feb 2 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 1 PM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 12
  inches. Greatest accumulations expected Thursday and Thursday
  Night.

* WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, Jefferson, Lewis, and 
  Ontario counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM Thursday to 1 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening 
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$
10 follow-up statements
522 
WWUS41 KBUF 021626
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1126 AM EST Wed Feb 2 2022

NYZ001-010-019-020-085-030030-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0002.220203T0300Z-220204T1500Z/
Niagara-Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Buffalo, Jamestown, Olean,
Orchard Park, and Springville
1126 AM EST Wed Feb 2 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 
  12 inches. Greatest accumulations expected Thursday and 
  Thursday Night.

* WHERE...Niagara, Erie, Chautauqua, and Cattaraugus counties.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening 
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ002-003-011>013-021-030030-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0002.220203T0300Z-220204T1800Z/
Orleans-Monroe-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Allegany-
Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Batavia, Warsaw, 
Geneseo, and Wellsville
1126 AM EST Wed Feb 2 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 
  12 inches. Greatest accumulations expected Thursday and 
  Thursday Night.

* WHERE...Orleans, Monroe, Genesee, Wyoming, Livingston, and 
  Allegany counties.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ004>008-014-030030-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0002.220203T0600Z-220204T1800Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Ontario-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, Watertown, 
Lowville, and Canandaigua
1126 AM EST Wed Feb 2 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO
1 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 
  12 inches. Greatest accumulations expected Thursday and 
  Thursday Night.

* WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, Jefferson, Lewis, and 
  Ontario counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM Thursday to 1 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening 
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

EAJ
010 
WWUS41 KBUF 022004
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
304 PM EST Wed Feb 2 2022

NYZ001-010-019-020-085-030415-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0002.220203T0300Z-220204T1500Z/
Niagara-Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Buffalo, Jamestown, Olean,
Orchard Park, and Springville
304 PM EST Wed Feb 2 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 13
  inches. accumulations expected Thursday and Thursday Night.

* WHERE...Niagara, Erie, Chautauqua, and Cattaraugus counties.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain will transition to wet snow between 8
  pm and 11 pm this evening with accumulation of 1 to 3 inches by
  the Thursday morning commute. Snow will continue Thursday with 
  2 to 5 inches of accumulation by sunset. Snow continues Thursday
  night with additional 3 to 5 inches. Additional minor 
  accumulations are possible Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ002-003-011>013-021-030415-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0002.220203T0300Z-220204T1800Z/
Orleans-Monroe-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Allegany-
Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Batavia, Warsaw, 
Geneseo, and Wellsville
304 PM EST Wed Feb 2 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 
  12 inches. Greatest accumulations expected Thursday and 
  Thursday Night.

* WHERE...Orleans, Monroe, Genesee, Wyoming, Livingston, and 
  Allegany counties.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain will transition to wet snow between 9
  pm this evening and 1 am Thursday morning with accumulations
  generally 2 inches or less by the Thursday morning commute. Snow
  will continue Thursday with 3 to 5 inches of accumulation by
  sunset. Snow continues Thursday night with additional
  accumulations of 3 to 5 inches. Additional minor accumulations
  are possible Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ004>008-014-030415-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0002.220203T0600Z-220204T1800Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Ontario-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, Watertown, 
Lowville, and Canandaigua
304 PM EST Wed Feb 2 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO
1 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 
  13 inches. Greatest accumulations expected Thursday and 
  Thursday Night.

* WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, Jefferson, Lewis, and 
  Ontario counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM Thursday to 1 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain will transition to wet snow between 9
  pm this evening and 1 am Thursday morning first over higher
  terrain with accumulations generally 2 inches or less by the
  Thursday morning commute. Snow will continue Thursday with 2 to
  4 inches of accumulation by sunset. Snow continues Thursday
  night with additional 3 to 7 inches. Additional minor
  accumulations are possible Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

TMA
737 
WWUS41 KBUF 030223
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
923 PM EST Wed Feb 2 2022

NYZ001-010-019-020-085-031100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0002.220203T0300Z-220204T1500Z/
Niagara-Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Buffalo, Jamestown, Olean,
Orchard Park, and Springville
923 PM EST Wed Feb 2 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 13
  inches tonight through Friday morning.

* WHERE...Niagara, Erie, Chautauqua, and Cattaraugus counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Expect 1 to 3 inches accumulation by the
  Thursday morning commute. Most of the snow accumulation will be
  Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. Additional minor 
  accumulations are possible Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ002-003-011>013-021-031100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0002.220203T0300Z-220204T1800Z/
Orleans-Monroe-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Allegany-
Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Batavia, Warsaw, 
Geneseo, and Wellsville
923 PM EST Wed Feb 2 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12
  inches tonight through Friday morning. 

* WHERE...Orleans, Monroe, Genesee, Wyoming, Livingston, and 
  Allegany counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain will change to snow through 2 am
  Thursday morning with accumulations generally 2 inches or less
  by the Thursday morning commute. Most of the snow accumulation
  will be Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. Additional 
  minor accumulations are possible Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ004>008-014-031100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0002.220203T0600Z-220204T1800Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Ontario-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, Watertown, 
Lowville, and Canandaigua
923 PM EST Wed Feb 2 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO
1 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 13
  inches tonight through Friday morning.

* WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, Jefferson, Lewis, and 
  Ontario counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM Thursday to 1 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Rain will transition to wet snow tonight with
  accumulations generally 2 inches or less by the Thursday 
  morning commute. Snow will continue Thursday with 2 to 4 inches 
  of accumulation by sunset. Snow continues Thursday night with 
  additional 3 to 7 inches. Additional minor accumulations are 
  possible Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

Apffel
384 
WWUS41 KBUF 030900
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
400 AM EST Thu Feb 3 2022

NYZ001-010-019-020-085-031700-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220204T1500Z/
Niagara-Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Buffalo, Jamestown, Olean,
Orchard Park, and Springville
400 AM EST Thu Feb 3 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Significant snowfall. TOTAL snow accumulations of 7 to 
  13 inches.

* WHERE...Niagara, Erie, Chautauqua, and Cattaraugus counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult...especially later today and
  tonight. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce
  visibility. The hazardous conditions will likely impact commutes
  into Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall of just an inch or two will coat
  some untreated secondary roadways this morning. Most of the snow
  accumulation will be later this afternoon through the first half
  of tonight. Additional minor accumulations will be possible late
  tonight and Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ002-003-011>013-021-031700-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220204T1800Z/
Orleans-Monroe-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Allegany-
Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Batavia, Warsaw, 
Geneseo, and Wellsville
400 AM EST Thu Feb 3 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Significant snowfall. TOTAL snow accumulations of 6 to 
  12 inches.

* WHERE...Orleans, Monroe, Genesee, Wyoming, Livingston, and 
  Allegany counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult...especially late today and
  tonight. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce
  visibility. The hazardous conditions will likely impact commutes
  into Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall of just an inch or two will coat
  some untreated secondary roadways this morning. Most of the snow
  accumulation will be late this afternoon and tonight. Additional
  minor accumulations will be likely on Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ004>008-014-031700-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220204T1800Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Ontario-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, Watertown, 
Lowville, and Canandaigua
400 AM EST Thu Feb 3 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Significant snowfall. TOTAL snow accumulations of 7 to 
  13 inches.

* WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, Jefferson, Lewis, and 
  Ontario counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult...especially tonight. Areas
  of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The
  hazardous conditions will likely impact commutes into Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall of just an inch or two will coat
  some untreated secondary roadways this morning. Most of the snow
  accumulation will be tonight. Additional minor accumulations
  will be likely on Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

RSH
208 
WWUS41 KBUF 031645
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1145 AM EST Thu Feb 3 2022

NYZ001-010-019-020-085-040045-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220204T1500Z/
Niagara-Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Buffalo, Jamestown, Olean,
Orchard Park, and Springville
1145 AM EST Thu Feb 3 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Significant snowfall. TOTAL snow accumulations of 7 to 
  13 inches.

* WHERE...Niagara, Erie, Chautauqua, and Cattaraugus counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult...especially late this
  afternoon and tonight. Areas of blowing snow could 
  significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions will 
  likely impact commutes into Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Most of the snow accumulation will be late 
  this afternoon through the first half of tonight. Additional 
  minor accumulations will be possible late tonight and Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ002-003-011>013-021-040045-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220204T1800Z/
Orleans-Monroe-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Allegany-
Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Batavia, Warsaw, 
Geneseo, and Wellsville
1145 AM EST Thu Feb 3 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Significant snowfall. TOTAL snow accumulations of 6 to 
  12 inches.

* WHERE...Orleans, Monroe, Genesee, Wyoming, Livingston, and 
  Allegany counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult...especially late this
  afternoon and tonight. Areas of blowing snow could 
  significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions will 
  likely impact commutes into Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Most of the snow accumulation will be late
  this afternoon and tonight. Additional minor accumulations will
  be likely on Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ004>008-014-040045-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220204T1800Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Ontario-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, Watertown, 
Lowville, and Canandaigua
1145 AM EST Thu Feb 3 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Significant snowfall. TOTAL snow accumulations of 7 to 
  13 inches.

* WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, Jefferson, Lewis, and 
  Ontario counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult...especially tonight. 
  Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. 
  The hazardous conditions will likely impact commutes into 
  Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Most of the snow accumulation will be 
  tonight. Additional minor accumulations will be likely on 
  Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

TMA
464 
WWUS41 KBUF 031953
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
253 PM EST Thu Feb 3 2022

NYZ001-010-019-020-085-040400-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220204T1500Z/
Niagara-Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Buffalo, Jamestown, Olean,
Orchard Park, and Springville
253 PM EST Thu Feb 3 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 5 to 10
  inches bringing storm total accumulations of 8 to 14 inches. 

* WHERE...Niagara, Erie, Chautauqua, and Cattaraugus counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult, especially late this 
  afternoon and tonight. Areas of blowing snow could significantly
  reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions will likely impact 
  commutes into Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Most of the snow accumulation will be late
  this afternoon through the first half of tonight. Additional 
  minor accumulations will be possible late tonight and Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ002-003-011>013-021-040400-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220204T1800Z/
Orleans-Monroe-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Allegany-
Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Batavia, Warsaw, 
Geneseo, and Wellsville
253 PM EST Thu Feb 3 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 6 to 12
  inches bringing storm total accumulations of 8 to 16 inches.

* WHERE...Orleans, Monroe, Genesee, Wyoming, Livingston, and 
  Allegany counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult, especially late this 
  afternoon and tonight. Areas of blowing snow could significantly
  reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions will likely impact 
  commutes into Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Most of the snow accumulation will be late
  this afternoon and tonight. Additional minor accumulations will
  be likely on Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ004>008-014-040400-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220204T1800Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Ontario-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, Watertown, 
Lowville, and Canandaigua
253 PM EST Thu Feb 3 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 6 to 12
  inches bringing total snow accumulations of 8 to 16 inches. 

* WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, Jefferson, Lewis, and 
  Ontario counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be difficult, especially tonight. Areas 
  of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The 
  hazardous conditions will likely impact commutes into Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Most of the snow accumulation will be 
  tonight. Additional minor accumulations will be likely on 
  Friday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

TMA
558 
WWUS41 KBUF 040208
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
908 PM EST Thu Feb 3 2022

NYZ001-010-019-020-085-041100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220204T1500Z/
Niagara-Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Buffalo, Jamestown, Olean,
Orchard Park, and Springville
908 PM EST Thu Feb 3 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 6
  inches tonight through mid-morning Friday.

* WHERE...Niagara, Erie, Chautauqua, and Cattaraugus counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult, especially overnight.
  The hazardous conditions will impact the morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The heaviest snow will be through 3 a.m.
  tonight. Additional minor accumulations will be possible late
  tonight through Friday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ002-003-011>013-021-041100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220204T1800Z/
Orleans-Monroe-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Allegany-
Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Batavia, Warsaw, 
Geneseo, and Wellsville
908 PM EST Thu Feb 3 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 8
  inches tonight through early Friday afternoon.

* WHERE...Orleans, Monroe, Genesee, Wyoming, Livingston, and 
  Allegany counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult, especially overnight.
  The hazardous conditions will impact the morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The heaviest snow will be through 5 a.m. tonight.
  Additional minor accumulations will be possible Friday morning 
  and early afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ004>008-014-041100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220204T1800Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Ontario-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, Watertown, 
Lowville, and Canandaigua
908 PM EST Thu Feb 3 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 8 
  inches tonight through early Friday afternoon.

* WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, Jefferson, Lewis, and 
  Ontario counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult, especially overnight.
  The hazardous conditions will impact the morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The heaviest snow will be through 5 a.m.
  tonight. Additional minor accumulations will be possible Friday
  morning and early afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

Apffel
802 
WWUS41 KBUF 040926
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
426 AM EST Fri Feb 4 2022

NYZ001-010-019-020-085-041500-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220204T1500Z/
Niagara-Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Buffalo, Jamestown, Olean,
Orchard Park, and Springville
426 AM EST Fri Feb 4 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Significant snowfall. Additional snow accumulations of 1
  to 3 inches.

* WHERE...Niagara, Erie, Chautauqua, and Cattaraugus counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered roads. The hazardous conditions
  will certainly impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ002-003-011>013-021-041800-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220204T1800Z/
Orleans-Monroe-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Allegany-
Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Batavia, Warsaw, 
Geneseo, and Wellsville
426 AM EST Fri Feb 4 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Significant snowfall. Additional snow accumulations of 1
  to 3 inches.

* WHERE...Orleans, Monroe, Genesee, Wyoming, Livingston, and 
  Allegany counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered roads. The hazardous conditions
  will certainly impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ004>008-014-041800-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220204T1800Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Ontario-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, Watertown, 
Lowville, and Canandaigua
426 AM EST Fri Feb 4 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Significant snowfall. Additional snow accumulations of 1
  to 3 inches.

* WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, Jefferson, Lewis, and 
  Ontario counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered roads. The hazardous conditions
  will impact the morning commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$
491 
WWUS41 KBUF 041502
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1002 AM EST Fri Feb 4 2022

NYZ001-010-019-020-085-041615-
/O.EXP.KBUF.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220204T1500Z/
Niagara-Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Buffalo, Jamestown, Olean,
Orchard Park, and Springville
1002 AM EST Fri Feb 4 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

Occasional light snow will continue through late afternoon, but
additional accumulations will generally be an inch or less.

$$

NYZ002-003-011>013-021-041800-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220204T1800Z/
Orleans-Monroe-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Allegany-
Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Batavia, Warsaw, 
Geneseo, and Wellsville
1002 AM EST Fri Feb 4 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches.

* WHERE...Orleans, Monroe, Genesee, Wyoming, Livingston, and 
  Allegany counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ004>008-014-041800-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220204T1800Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Ontario-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego, Watertown, 
Lowville, and Canandaigua
1002 AM EST Fri Feb 4 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches.

* WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Oswego, Jefferson, Lewis, and 
  Ontario counties.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

Hitchcock
509 
WWUS41 KBUF 041802
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
102 PM EST Fri Feb 4 2022

NYZ002>008-011>014-021-041915-
/O.EXP.KBUF.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220204T1800Z/
Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-
Including the cities of Medina, Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, 
Oswego, Watertown, Lowville, Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo, 
Canandaigua, and Wellsville
102 PM EST Fri Feb 4 2022

...WINTER STORM WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

Light snow will bring an additional 1 to 2 inches through the
rest of the afternoon.

$$

Hitchcock

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm warning went out at Feb 2, 12:47 AM EST, 3 hours 8 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 2, 12:47 AM EST, 3 hours 8 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1247 AM EST Wed Feb 2 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Our stretch of fair weather and thaw will fade through the afternoon
and evening as a cold front slowly pushes into our region. Along
this front waves of low pressure will bring widespread accumulating
snow to the region...with the first wave impacting the Niagara
Frontier tonight, and then the second wave Thursday afternoon and
Thursday night regionwide. Snow will end Friday, with another arctic
airmass settling over the region to start the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A surface low over western Ontario will track to near Hudson
Bay overnight, and northern Quebec Wednesday. A southerly
gradient will remain in place overnight as a 45 knot low level
jet passes through. This will help prevent much overnight
cooling with temperatures only dropping into the lower to mid
30s across most of Western NY with some 20s east of Lake
Ontario.

Wednesday will start dry across the region with dry air still
in place. A cold front from the Canadian surface low will be
just off to our northwest Wednesday morning, but the combination
of strong high pressure to our east and a subtle wave
developing along the front will slow the eastward advancement of
the front through the day. The slow eastward progress of the
front will also likely keep a slower trend to the incoming
precipitation. Latest model guidance suggests precipitation
will push into western New York late Wednesday afternoon, and
into eastern areas Wednesday evening. Otherwise, another day of
milder temperatures ahead of the front with most areas getting
into the lower 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for all of western and north
central New York Wednesday night through the first half of Friday.
Still enough model variability showing up to keep the watch as it
is at this time.

Latest model trends continuing to suggest a cold frontal passage
Wednesday night. This will mark a period of steadier precipitation
into the area as the front slowly progresses through the area.
Colder air steadily moving in behind the front will bring a
transition over to wet snow, although southern portions of the
area may remain a mix until Thursday morning or even see a bit
of sleet or freezing rain before the complete erosion of a
narrow warm nose that may slip northward into the region.
Depending on the exact timing of the transition over to snow it
is possible for a slushy accumulation of a few inches of snow
by the morning commute, especially across western New York
including Buffalo, but this would likely be a very wet snow with
snow to liquid ratios perhaps no higher than 4-6:1.

Cold frontal boundary will ease completely through the area by
Thursday. At some point a low level wave working northward along
the front will send better moisture quality into the frontal
zone with a window of better snowfall accumulations, likely
within the Thursday afternoon and Thursday night time frame.
Magnitude of forcing continues to suggest snowfall rates of .5"
per hour most common, with a window of near an inch per hour a
possibility probably in the Thursday afternoon and Thursday
night period.

Forecast will continue to highlight the potential for 9 inches or
more of snow across the entire area by daybreak Friday morning.
Modest winds this period suggest limited input for blowing
snow, with the highest winds likely confined to lake shore
areas where some impact due to blowing snow will be possible
later Thursday into Thursday night.

Both the intensity and coverage of snowfall diminishes Friday
as the frontal forcing eases south and east and moist ascent
fades. Some potential exists for lingering lake enhanced snows
within the trailing end of the system, but drier air quickly
advecting in should keep this potential limited.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The long term period will be generally quiet in terms of any
widespread precipitation or impactful weather. There will be some
lingering lake effect snows along and just south of Lake Ontario for
Saturday with a few flurries or light snow showers possible east of
Lake Erie. With winds shifting from WNW to west and then WSW, lake
snows that do develop will shift north. A sfc high over the region
and increased ridging over the area will limit snow amounts off of
both lakes, and will eventually cause the snow showers to scatter
out completely by Saturday evening.

Sunday should be dry, with the region sandwiched between a potential
coastal storm to the southeast, and a weakening disturbance dropping
out of the upper Great Lakes along an approaching cold front. Sunday
night into Monday, will bring the potential for some snow showers
across the region as the weakening low pressure and cold front
approaches and crosses the area. Generally high slight chance to low
chance POPs in place for this timeframe with the weakening state of
the low pressure. Snow showers may linger into Tuesday, with the
best chance for snow showers downwind of the lakes.

The temperatures on Saturday will be well below normal, followed by
more near normal temperatures for the rest of the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR flight conditions will prevail through the first 15 to 18 hours
of the 06Z TAF package. Limited LLWS through the next 6 hours as a
40 to 45 knot LLJ passes through...with surface winds remaining
steady with light gusts. A slow moving cold front will near the
northern Niagara Frontier this early evening, with a wind shift to
northwest and eventually northerly behind the front. Along this front
an initial rain and snow mix will quickly become snow...with flight
conditions deteriorating to IFR within snow for the remainder of the
night.

Outlook...

Thursday through Friday...Restrictions in snow to IFR/LIFR.

Friday Night...returning to mainly VFR, with MVFR in lake effect
snow south of Lake Ontario and southeast of Lake Erie.

Saturday...Mainly VFR, but some MVFR in lake effect snow south of
Lake Ontario.

Sunday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Southerly winds will increase between a departing surface high and
approaching cold front this evening through early Wednesday, with
winds peaking tonight upwards of 20 knots or so on Lake Erie
and the central and eastern coastline of Lake Ontario. For this
a small craft advisory will remain as outlined below.

Lake Erie has become mostly ice covered which will limit the
development of higher wave heights.

A frontal boundary will slip across the Lakes Wednesday night
with winds quickly shifting from a southerly flow to a northwest
and then northerly flow Thursday and into Friday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Friday afternoon
     for NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
         LOZ043>045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...Apffel/TMA
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Apffel/Thomas/TMA

Nearby

Winter Storm Warnings in New York, 2022Every winter storm warning in 2022

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.