Special Weather Statement, NWS Buffalo, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
250 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Accumulating lake snows will continue east of both lakes
through tonight before they taper off and end later Monday and
Monday night. The remainder of the region will remain on the
cold side of normal with a fair amount of cloud cover and an
occasional flurry. While benign weather can be expected for
Tuesday and Wednesday...a very large and powerful storm system
will impact the bulk of the eastern half of the country later in
the week. This will likely include some strong winds and more
accumulating snow for our region as the holiday weekend begins.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A slow moving mid level storm system passing by to our north into
tonight will maintain a continuous feed of relatively cold air
across our forecast area. H85 temps of -10 to -12c will be more than
cold enough to keep an unstable environment over the still wide open
lake waters...so significant snow accumulations will be found across
parts of the Southern Tier as well of in the vcnty of the Tug Hill
Plateau. Outside of these lake effect areas...a deep cyclonic flow
will guarantee a fair amount of cloud cover along with a few
flurries or an isolated snow shower. As for the lake effect
details...

Lake Erie... Band of snow with sharp northern edge has slowly
settled into western Chautauqua county along the Chautauqua Ridge
into far northern Cattaraugus county, southern Erie county with
spray of lighter snow into southern Genesee and Wyoming counties. A
250-260 steering flow veering to 280 by late afternoon will continue
to favor the bands of snow more into the Southern Tier. A cap around
12kft (seen on 12z BUF sounding) will allow for occasional snowfall
rates of 1-2 inches per hour within 20 miles of so of the lake.
Highest amounts will be found on the Chautauqua ridge with lesser
amounts further inland. An occasionally breezy southwest-west wind
will result in at least patchy blowing snow in open areas closer to
the Lake Erie shoreline.

As the aforementioned mid level low moves east across the Ottawa
valley tonight the steering flow will veer to 290 degrees with the
cap slowly lowering to under 10kft. While this will lead to multiple
bands of snow that will spray more of the region, snowfall rates and
associated accumulations will drop off.

The lake snows off Lk Erie will continue to diminish in intensity on
Monday into Monday night...as eventual weak warm advection and an
orthogonal 300-310 flow with a cap dropping below 5kft will only
support scattered snow showers by late in the day into Monday night.
Possible once this trend emerges that the current lake snow warning
will be able to be cancelled early.

Lake Ontario...Lake effect was more widespread this morning, even
impacting the Watertown and Fort Drum areas. The band then became
more focused across the Tug Hill with reports of up to 2 inches per
hour. Winds in the lake convective layer showing more shear through
the night, with a general westerly flow. Overall there will be a
stronger band but it will be variable in location as far north as
Watertown and as far south as central Tug Hill. Snow amounts through
the night could exceed a foot, but this will depend on if the band
can be more persistent. Not quite sure if that will occur though.
Later tonight, expect the steering flow to gradually veer from 280
to 290...so the focus of the heavier snow on the Tug should shift a
bit to the southern half of the plateau into northern Oswego county.

On Monday...the cap over Lake Ontario will steadily lower during the
second half of the day while the flow will veers further to 310.
Much like what will have happened some six hours earlier off Lk
Erie...the snow will taper off in intensity while being pushed to
the south of the Tug across southern Oswego county...northern Cayuga
county and northern/eastern Wayne county. Monday snowfall under this
southward push will generally range from 2 to 5 inches. Monday
night, cap continues to lower and we will be left with lighter lake
effect to the southeast of Lake Ontario, perhaps getting into the
eastern suburbs of Rochester.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Looking at a bigger picture, the atmospheric pattern have ridging at
the surface and aloft building eastward across our area Tuesday.
Then, the surface ridge will settle off to our east/southeast
Tuesday night and Wednesday, while a weak surface low lifts from
central Ontario to the Hudson Bay.

The combination of drier air, subsidence/a lowering capping
inversion, and increasing shear attendant to the building surface
ridge will help diminish lingering lake effect snows from west to
east Tuesday morning. Off Lake Erie, with a backing/increasingly
sheared boundary layer flow will place some remnant flurries
northward across the Buffalo area on Tuesday morning...where these
will eventually die out by Tuesday afternoon. Meanwhile off Lake
Ontario, scattered diminishing snow showers ESE will be lingering
around Tuesday morning. The leftover flurries will then lift
northward to areas east and northeast of the lake Tuesday afternoon
as the boundary layer flow backs and becomes increasingly sheared.
Lingering showers will then end altogether Tuesday evening.

With the high pressure overhead, Wednesday and Wednesday night will
primarily be dry and quiet.

Outside of this, temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will remain
slightly below normal. Nightly lows will range from the mid-upper
teens across interior portions of the Southern Tier and North
Country to the lower to mid 20s elsewhere. Daily highs will be in
the lower to mid 30s Tuesday and the mid to upper 30s Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
During this period shortwave energy diving southeastward out of the
Pacific Northwest will help to carve out an anomalously deep upper
level trough over the Plains States on Thursday...with this feature
then further sharpening/deepening and becoming increasingly
negatively tilted as it pivots across the eastern CONUS on Friday.
Strong DCVA/height falls on its eastern flank will help spur the
development of a rather large and energetic attendant surface low
Thursday...which will then rapidly deepen and lift northeastward
across the eastern third of the country on Friday...then on into
Quebec during Saturday.

The above being said...considerable uncertainty still exists with
respect to the track of the aforementioned surface low...with the
ECMWF still ominously insisting on a track across the central Great
Lakes...while the past couple runs of the GFS/GEM suggest a more
easterly track either over or just east of our CWA. Over the past
few days...we have also seen these same guidance packages suggest a
further east (coastal) low track at points...so cannot rule out such
a scenario yet either.

Regardless of the ultimate track of this system...it appears likely
to bring us some widespread synoptic-scale precipitation Thursday
into Friday. A more easterly track would favor more snow (and
possible lake enhancement)...while a more westerly track would favor
more of a mixed precipitation event. Following the passage of the
system's center of circulation...a westerly to southwesterly flow of
much colder air then appears likely to flood across our region and
bring the potential for another round of significant lake effect
snow Friday and Saturday...with strong winds potentially
accompanying these were a storm track west of our area to ultimately
verify. Speaking of colder air...the incoming airmass will also
easily be the coldest of the young winter season to date...and would
drive temps down to well below average for the end of the week/
Christmas weekend...and at least into the beginning of the following
week.

With this system looking to present some significant impacts to our
region (even though the exact nature of these remains unclear) just
before and during Christmas weekend...we will add a mention of this
to the Hazardous Weather Outlook beginning this morning. Stay
tuned!

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
While most areas will experience VFR to MVFR cigs through tonight...the
areas of concern will remain east of both lakes where accumulating
lake snows will continue.

Main terminal impacted through tonight by adverse conditions will be
JHW with IFR or LIFR becoming more common there this afternoon into
tonight in moderate to heavy lake effect snow. Enough of a wobble
northward in the lake effect east of Lake Ontario that occasional
lake effect snow with IFR conditions could impact ART into this
evening. Later tonight into Monday, most of the lake effect snow
will stay south of ART.

Outlook...

Monday night...Localized IFR/LIFR in lake effect snow southeast of
the lakes. MVFR in scattered lake effect snow showers along the
south shore of Lake Ontario.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday...Rain and snow likely, especially late. VFR with
increasing reductions late.

Friday...Rain and snow changing to snow. Becoming windy. Reductions
likely.

&&

.MARINE...
Plan on a tight pressure gradient, stronger winds and higher waves
to persist into Monday for all marine areas except the Niagara River
and St. Lawrence River. Sub Small Craft criteria conditions are
expected Tuesday into Wednesday. The quiet conditions will not
last though as a strong and wide reaching low pressure system
brings very strong winds across the Great Lakes Friday into next
weekend. At the least, gales will be likely with a non-zero
potential for storm force winds.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for NYZ006>008.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 PM EST Monday for NYZ012-019-
     020-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for LOZ042-
         045.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for LOZ043-044.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...JLA/RSH
SHORT TERM...EAJ/JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
206 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2022

NYZ001-002-011-191915-
Niagara-Orleans-Genesee-
206 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A significant winter storm appears likely to develop and track
northeastward across the eastern third of the country Thursday and
Friday. While its exact track and resultant impacts on our region
remain uncertain this far in advance...this system will likely pose
a risk for widespread snow or mixed precipitation Thursday into
Friday...followed by much colder conditions and the potential for
significant lake effect snow from Friday into Christmas weekend.
There is also a chance that the precipitation could be accompanied
by strong winds Friday into Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ012-020-191915-
Wyoming-Cattaraugus-
206 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2022

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lake Effect Snow Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lake Effect Snow Warning.

A significant winter storm appears likely to develop and track
northeastward across the eastern third of the country Thursday and
Friday. While its exact track and resultant impacts on our region
remain uncertain this far in advance...this system will likely pose
a risk for widespread snow or mixed precipitation Thursday into
Friday...followed by much colder conditions and the potential for
significant lake effect snow from Friday into Christmas weekend.
There is also a chance that the precipitation could be accompanied
by strong winds Friday into Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ003>005-013-014-021-191915-
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-
206 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A significant winter storm appears likely to develop and track
northeastward across the eastern third of the country Thursday and
Friday. While its exact track and resultant impacts on our region
remain uncertain this far in advance...this system will likely pose
a risk for widespread snow or mixed precipitation Thursday into
Friday...followed by much colder conditions from Friday into
Christmas weekend. There is also a chance that this system could
bring some strong winds Friday into Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ008-191915-
Lewis-
206 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2022

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lake Effect Snow Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lake Effect Snow Warning.

A significant winter storm appears likely to develop and track
northeastward across the eastern third of the country Thursday and
Friday. While its exact track and resultant impacts on our region
remain uncertain this far in advance...this system will likely pose
a risk for widespread snow or mixed precipitation Thursday into
Friday...followed by much colder conditions and the potential for
significant lake effect snow from Friday into Christmas weekend.
There is also a chance that the precipitation could be accompanied
by strong winds Friday into Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-LOZ030-SLZ022-024-191915-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
206 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Ontario and Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-191915-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
206 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Gale force winds are possible Friday into Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ010-191915-
Northern Erie-
206 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A significant winter storm appears likely to develop and track
northeastward across the eastern third of the country Thursday and
Friday. While its exact track and resultant impacts on our region
remain uncertain this far in advance...this system will likely pose
a risk for widespread snow or mixed precipitation Thursday into
Friday...followed by much colder conditions and the potential for
significant lake effect snow from Friday into Christmas weekend.
There is also a chance that the precipitation could be accompanied
by strong winds Friday into Saturday. The strong winds could also
result in lakeshore flooding along the Lake Erie shoreline.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ019-085-191915-
Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
206 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2022

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lake Effect Snow Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lake Effect Snow Warning.

A significant winter storm appears likely to develop and track
northeastward across the eastern third of the country Thursday and
Friday. While its exact track and resultant impacts on our region
remain uncertain this far in advance...this system will likely pose
a risk for widespread snow or mixed precipitation Thursday into
Friday...followed by much colder conditions and the potential for
significant lake effect snow from Friday into Christmas weekend.
There is also a chance that the precipitation could be accompanied
by strong winds Friday into Saturday. The strong winds could also
result in lakeshore flooding along the Lake Erie shoreline.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006-007-191915-
Oswego-Jefferson-
206 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2022

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lake Effect Snow Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lake Effect Snow Warning.

A significant winter storm appears likely to develop and track
northeastward across the eastern third of the country Thursday and
Friday. While its exact track and resultant impacts on our region
remain uncertain this far in advance...this system will likely pose
a risk for widespread snow or mixed precipitation Thursday into
Friday...followed by much colder conditions and the potential for
significant lake effect snow from Friday into Christmas weekend.
There is also a chance that the precipitation could be accompanied
by strong winds Friday into Saturday. The strong winds and resulting
high waves could also result in lakeshore flooding along the east
end of Lake Ontario.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

JLA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1003 AM EST SUN DEC 18 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     SNOW             3 N AMHERST             43.05N 78.76W
12/18/2022  M4.8 INCH        ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

0800 AM     SNOW             1 NNE ANGOLA            42.65N 79.03W
12/18/2022  M6.8 INCH        ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

0930 AM     SNOW             ATTICA                  42.86N 78.27W
12/18/2022  M5.3 INCH        WYOMING            NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL SNOW.

0800 AM     SNOW             3 E EAST PEMBROKE       42.99N 78.25W
12/18/2022  M5.8 INCH        GENESEE            NY   COCORAHS

0700 AM     SNOW             2 S SNYDER              42.93N 78.78W
12/18/2022  M6.0 INCH        ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

0700 AM     SNOW             2 SE WILLIAMSVILLE      42.94N 78.72W
12/18/2022  M9.5 INCH        ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

0700 AM     SNOW             1 N CLARENCE CENTER     43.02N 78.63W
12/18/2022  M6.5 INCH        ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

0920 AM     SNOW             2 E DARIEN CENTER       42.90N 78.35W
12/18/2022  M6.8 INCH        GENESEE            NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL SNOW.

0900 AM     SNOW             1 SW EAST AMHERST       43.01N 78.72W
12/18/2022  M3.8 INCH        ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

0900 AM     SNOW             2 WNW EAST AURORA       42.77N 78.66W
12/18/2022  M15.5 INCH       ERIE               NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL SNOW.

0700 AM     SNOW             EAST AURORA             42.77N 78.62W
12/18/2022  M4.8 INCH        ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

0845 AM     SNOW             2 NW SOUTH WALES        42.73N 78.61W
12/18/2022  M5.1 INCH        ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

0830 AM     SNOW             1 SSE EDEN              42.63N 78.89W
12/18/2022  M4.1 INCH        ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

0700 AM     SNOW             HAMBURG                 42.72N 78.84W
12/18/2022  M5.5 INCH        ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

0800 AM     SNOW             2 N HAMBURG             42.75N 78.83W
12/18/2022  M9.5 INCH        ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

0605 AM     SNOW             KENMORE                 42.96N 78.87W
12/18/2022  M6.9 INCH        ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

0700 AM     SNOW             1 NW KENMORE            42.97N 78.88W
12/18/2022  M5.4 INCH        ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

0815 AM     SNOW             5 W HAMBURG             42.73N 78.92W
12/18/2022  M8.1 INCH        ERIE               NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

0600 AM     SNOW             LANCASTER               42.90N 78.67W
12/18/2022  M13.3 INCH       ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

0700 AM     SNOW             WEST CARTHAGE           43.97N 75.62W
12/18/2022  M3.7 INCH        JEFFERSON          NY   COCORAHS

0415 AM     SNOW             3 SE WEST SENECA        42.81N 78.71W
12/18/2022  M14.0 INCH       ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

0700 AM     SNOW             1 SE HARRIS HILL        42.96N 78.67W
12/18/2022  M8.0 INCH        ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1100 AM EST Sun Dec 18 2022

NYZ006>008-181730-
Jefferson NY-Oswego NY-Lewis NY-
1100 AM EST Sun Dec 18 2022

...A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT PARTS OF JEFFERSON...OSWEGO...AND
LEWIS COUNTIES...

HAZARDS...A heavy lake effect snow band which can rapidly reduce
visibility to less than one half mile. This band of heavy snow is
producing snow at the rate of 1 to 2 inches per hour.

LOCATION AND MOVEMENT...At 1055 AM EST, a band of heavy lake effect
snow extended from Henderson and Adams south to Altmar, eastward
across the Tug Hill.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
Sandy Island Beach State Park, Stony Point, Lowville, Pulaski, Adams,
Redfield, Selkirk Shores State Park, Highmarket, Mexico Point State
Park, Adams Center, Henderson Harbor, Barnes Corners, Whetstone Gulf
State Park, Southwick Beach State Park, Richland, Denmark,
Martinsburg, Henderson, Smithville and Rodman.

This includes Interstate 81 between exits 35 and 44.

SAFETY INFO...
Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations. Be
prepared for snow or ice covered roads. Slow down and allow extra
time to reach your destination.

&&

LAT...LON 4342 7554 4348 7581 4345 7583 4355 7645
      4357 7636 4356 7631 4358 7626 4369 7626
      4378 7629 4383 7636 4387 7635 4384 7644
      4385 7648 4392 7647 4392 7633 4389 7633
      4392 7629 4393 7551 4348 7540
TIME...MOT...LOC 1555Z 273DEG 22KT 4367 7645 4352 7565

JLA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1119 AM EST SUN DEC 18 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 AM     SNOW             MANNSVILLE              43.72N 76.07W
12/18/2022  M5.5 INCH        JEFFERSON          NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HEAVY SNOW RESULTED IN 5.5 INCHES TO FALL IN
            3 HOURS. SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL AT TIME OF
            REPORT.

1030 AM     SNOW             2 SW HENDERSON HARBOR   43.83N 76.22W
12/18/2022  M5.0 INCH        JEFFERSON          NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL SNOW.

1000 AM     SNOW             4 NW COPENHAGEN         43.93N 75.72W
12/18/2022  M10.6 INCH       JEFFERSON          NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
120 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2022

NYZ006>008-181945-
Jefferson NY-Oswego NY-Lewis NY-
120 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2022

...A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL AFFECT PARTS OF JEFFERSON...OSWEGO...
AND LEWIS COUNTIES...

HAZARDS...A lake effect snow band which can rapidly reduce visibility
to less than a quarter of a mile. This lake effect snow band is
producing heavy snow at the rate of 1 to 2 inches per hour.

LOCATION AND MOVEMENT...At 118 PM EST, a lake effect snow band
extended from Sackets Harbor and Mannsville eastward across the Tug
Hill.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
Watertown, Stony Point, Carthage, Lowville, West Carthage, Adams,
Dexter, Glen Park, Adams Center, Henderson Harbor, Barnes Corners,
Whetstone Gulf State Park, Southwick Beach State Park, Denmark, New
Bremen, Watson, Sackets Harbor, Martinsburg, Henderson and Black
River.

This includes Interstate 81 between exits 38 and 47.

SAFETY INFO...
Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations. Be
prepared for snow or ice covered roads. Slow down and allow extra
time to reach your destination.

&&

LAT...LON 4369 7626 4378 7629 4383 7636 4387 7635
      4385 7647 4387 7650 4390 7650 4396 7644
      4396 7638 4395 7634 4404 7637 4398 7516
      4363 7511
TIME...MOT...LOC 1818Z 273DEG 21KT 4379 7604

JLA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
157 PM EST SUN DEC 18 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     SNOW             3 NE BOSTON             42.66N 78.70W
12/18/2022  M9.7 INCH        ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            STORM TOTAL SNOW. 4.4 INCHES FELL IN THE
            PAST SIX HOURS.

0100 PM     SNOW             1 NW ADAMS CENTER       43.87N 76.01W
12/18/2022  M14.4 INCH       JEFFERSON          NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL SNOW SO FAR.

1200 PM     SNOW             3 SW ADAMS              43.78N 76.07W
12/18/2022  M7.0 INCH        JEFFERSON          NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL SNOW.

1115 AM     SNOW             2 SSE LANCASTER         42.87N 78.65W
12/18/2022  M18.0 INCH       ERIE               NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL.

1100 AM     SNOW             CORFU                   42.96N 78.40W
12/18/2022  M4.3 INCH        GENESEE            NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL SNOW REPORTED AS 10.3 INCHES.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
302 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2022

NYZ006>008-182200-
Jefferson NY-Oswego NY-Lewis NY-
302 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2022

...A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL AFFECT PARTS OF JEFFERSON...OSWEGO...
AND LEWIS COUNTIES...

HAZARDS...A lake effect snow band which can rapidly reduce visibility
to less than a quarter of a mile. This lake effect snow band is
producing extremely heavy snow at the rate of 1 to 2 inches per hour.

LOCATION...At 257 PM EST, a lake effect snow band was near Southwick
Beach State Park, or near Sandy Island Beach State Park and
stretching inland across southern Jefferson and the Tug Hill
Plateau. This band will remain nearly stationary through the late
afternoon hours.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
Watertown, Sandy Island Beach State Park, Fort Drum, Carthage,
Lowville, Pulaski, West Carthage, Adams, Herrings, Highmarket, Adams
Center, Southwick Beach State Park, Henderson Harbor, Barnes Corners,
Whetstone Gulf State Park, Denmark, New Bremen, Watson, Martinsburg
and Henderson.

This includes Interstate 81 between exits 37 and 44.

SAFETY INFO...
Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations. Be
prepared for snow or ice covered roads. Slow down and allow extra
time to reach your destination.

&&

LAT...LON 4360 7514 4355 7526 4358 7627 4386 7628
      4409 7560 4409 7517 4363 7511 4361 7511
TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 271DEG 44KT 4371 7616

Thomas