Special Weather Statement, NWS Buffalo, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
318 PM EST Sun Nov 20 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Heavy lake effect snow will impact southeast of Lake Ontario,
centered on Oswego county through this evening. Moderate to locally
heavy lake effect snow bands will impact the Southern Tier into this
evening. Additionally gusty winds this afternoon and again on Monday
will create blowing and drifting of the recently fallen snow.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Two plumes of lake effect snow continue to the east of the Lakes.
Outside these plumes of snow, breezy conditions with west gusts up
to 45 mph have created blowing snow with reduced visibilities, as
well as drifting of snow. Interesting that wind gusts briefly
reached 45-48 mph over portions of the Niagara Frontier/Genesee
valley where it is sunny and mixing has been maximized. These
stronger winds are beginning to diminish recently though. Cold
persists with single digit wind chills into tonight all areas.

Off Lake Erie...

A westerly flow has focused the snow showers across the Southern
Tier. Mainly moderate intensity, though have seen a few heavier snow
showers as well. Shallower lake equilibrium level and drier air and
connection lessening off upstream lakes will continue to diminish
the snow into tonight. Remnants of this snow will come back north
overnight across Buffalo in a much weakened state. Total snow
accumulations through tonight will be a few inches of fluffy snow in
the Southern Tier to an inch or two otherwise across far WNY,
including the Buffalo Metro.

Off Lake Ontario...

Much more well developed, but still wavering band of lake effect
continues to impact the corridor from Oswego into southern Lewis
county early this afternoon helped by wnw flow bringing in upstream
connections to central Great Lakes. Radar trends and consensus of
high-res guidance, including HRRR and Canadian High res do point to
a more notable shift southward of this band into at least early
evening, so this will put the band into far northeast Wayne,
far northern Cayuga and much of Oswego county. Snowfall rates of
2-3" per hour likely along with some lightning. No changes to
the going headlines. This shift will have to happen for snow to
come into Wayne county, but again, it looks to be occurring at
present. Oswego county should see storm totals since late last
night of 2-3 feet in some areas.

Later tonight, similar to the Lake Erie band, expect the band to
weaken and shift back to the north across northern Oswego, much of
Jefferson and adjacent Lewis county. A lot of the weakening will
occur due to loss in upstream connections, but there is a hint that
the plume of moisture from Lake Erie band will try to briefly
connect with the eastern Lake Ontario band. If that were to happen r
rates could push toward 1" per hour into Watertown late tonight with
up to a few inches of accumulation tonight.

By Monday morning the weakening bands of snow...with their last
gasps of light snow showers at Buffalo/Niagara Falls and Watertown
will lift into Canada by late morning, losing any upstream lake
connection, and finally ending. This lake effect snow event starting
Wednesday evening for some locations has been a very long duration
event lasting over 100 hours.

Later Monday a cold front will advance across southern Canada and
our region. Residual lake moisture collecting ahead of the front may
bring a few rain or snow showers back into our region. Of bigger
concern a tightening pressure gradient ahead of the upstream trough
and departing surface high will bring wind gusts about 5 to 10 mph
stronger than Sunday. While this could continue the blowing snow,
the extra day of compaction along with surface temperatures rising
above freezing in many locations will reduce the blowing snow
threat. Regardless, winds possibly gusting towards advisory levels
will occur northeast of the Lakes and possibly even toward ROC on
the Niagara Frontier.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
There may be some lingering lake effect snow showers Monday night as
a shortwave passes by to our north. It does look marginally cold
enough for snow, with -6C at 850mb ahead of the shortwave. Any
accumulations will be minor especially considering recent snowfall.
Expect less than an inch east of Lake Erie, and 1-3 inches on the
Tug Hill. On Tuesday night despite a more zonal flow developing,
weak southwest low-level flow sets up and it again is just
marginally cold for a lake response (-6c at H85) though inversions
are only 3-5kft. Just a small chance we could see some snow showers
northeast of Lake Ontario. This would then shift toward southeast
Lake Ontario on into Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A shortwave trough overhead Wednesday morning will track east of
the area by Wednesday afternoon. Westerly flow and marginally
cold enough temperatures for lake effect may result in some rain
and snow showers east of Lake Ontario through the afternoon.
Elsewhere, dry conditions expected. Highs will reach the low
40s.

The synoptic pattern will become amplified the latter half of the
week as trough deepens across the Mid-West region and an upper level
ridge builds across the Northeast. Surface low pressure will be
deepening east of the trough however timing and location is yet to
be determined. Warm air and moisture advection is likely across the
eastern Great Lakes region beginning Thursday night and rain and
snow showers are likely during this time period. It is fairly
certain that moisture and cold air will wrap around this system
through the weekend with lake effect snow showers possible.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Bands of lake effect snow with visibilities dropping to VLIFR to
LIFR continue to the east of the Lakes. Off Lake Erie the band has
settled south of the Buffalo and Rochester airports and will impact
KJHW this afternoon with IFR/LIFR visibility. Otherwise, even
outside of this band, gusty winds to 35 knots will result in blowing
snow at times at BUF and IAG.

Off Lake Ontario into this evening the primary snow band will
persist southeast of Lake Ontario between ROC and ART. Mainly VFR at
ART, though there will be occasional BLSN and reduced visibility.

Tonight the lake effect snow will begin to drift northward again, in
a much weaker state. A few snow showers, with brief reduction to IFR
is possible for KBUF and KART by the end of tonight.

Outlook...

Monday....MVFR/VFR with a chance of rain and snow showers. Very
Windy with gusts 40 knots or greater possible.
Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR.
Friday...Chance of rain and snow showers. MVFR/IFR possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Gale force winds this afternoon will diminish some tonight, then
back to southwest on Monday while increasing to 35-40 knots on both
Lakes. In coordination with NWS Cleveland and Canada we have ran
with one gale warning through Monday, even though there will likely
be a 12+ hr window of sub-gale force winds tonight on the Lakes.

Small craft advisories will be in place for the Niagara River as
well as the Saint Lawrence River. Winds are expected to be stronger
Monday on the Saint Lawrence River where a southwesterly flow down
the river valley could reach 25 knots sustained.

High pressure will push towards the region Monday night and
Tuesday, relaxing the pressure gradient and allowing for winds and
waves to decrease.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Strong winds late today will cause levels on Lake Erie to rise
some. Water levels will likely approach 6 feet above low water
datum at the Buffalo NOS station. Levels higher than this can
cause minor splash over in a few spots along the Lake Erie
shoreline.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Buffalo airport received 21.5 inches of snowfall Saturday,
breaking the daily record and bringing our monthly total 36.9
inches. Saturday, November 19th was the 2nd snowiest calendar
day for the month of November in Buffalo's history...trailing
only the November 20, 2000 date which had 24.9 inches of snow.
This snow also makes November 2022 the 2nd snowiest on record
(the snowiest is back in 2000 when there was 45.6 inches of
snow).

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ001-
     002-007-010>012-085.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ004.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ005.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 4 AM EST Monday for NYZ006-008.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for
     NYZ019-020.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     NYZ021.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for LEZ020.
         Gale Warning until 10 PM EST Monday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for LOZ030.
         Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Monday for
         SLZ022-024.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JLA/Thomas
NEAR TERM...JLA/Thomas
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLA/Thomas
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Apffel/TMA
CLIMATE...Thomas

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
142 PM EST Sun Nov 20 2022

NYZ004>008-202030-
Jefferson NY-Oswego NY-Lewis NY-Wayne NY-Northern Cayuga NY-
142 PM EST Sun Nov 20 2022

...AN INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL AFFECT PARTS OF
JEFFERSON...OSWEGO... LEWIS...WAYNE...AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES...

HAZARDS...Lake effect snow with wind gusts up to 40 mph will rapidly
reduce visibility to less than a quarter of a mile. This lake effect
snow band is producing extremely heavy snow at the rate of 1 to 3
inches per hour within the most intense part of the band.

LOCATION AND MOVEMENT...At 130 PM EST, a lake effect snow band was
located between Mannsville NY to Fulton, NY. This band will remain
fairly stationary over the next hour then again drift south across
Oswego co.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
Oswego, Fulton, Sandy Island Beach State Park, Fair Haven Beach State
Park, Lowville, Pulaski, Central Square, Adams, Redfield, Selkirk
Shores State Park, Highmarket, Mexico Point State Park, Nine Mile
Point, Southwick Beach State Park, Battle Island State Park,
Whetstone Gulf State Park, Brewerton, Hastings, Scriba and Volney.

This includes Interstate 81 between exits 32 and 40.

***Travel will be extremely difficult, if not nearly impossible in
the most intense portion of this band.***

SAFETY INFO...
Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations. Be
prepared for snow or ice covered roads. Slow down and allow extra
time to reach your destination.

&&

LAT...LON 4342 7553 4348 7581 4333 7589 4317 7588
      4320 7608 4327 7620 4322 7619 4333 7718
      4332 7695 4335 7681 4356 7645 4356 7628
      4378 7629 4381 7633 4381 7618 4377 7513
      4361 7511
TIME...MOT...LOC 1830Z 274DEG 96KT 4362 7639

Reynolds

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
332 PM EST Sun Nov 20 2022

NYZ005-006-008-202200-
Oswego NY-Lewis NY-Northern Cayuga NY-
332 PM EST Sun Nov 20 2022

...A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL AFFECT PARTS OF OSWEGO...SOUTHERN
LEWIS...AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES...

HAZARDS...An intense band of lake effect snow will continue across
much of Oswego County, as well as far southern Lewis, and far
northern Cayuga counties through late afternoon. Snowfall rates will
reach 3 inches per hour in the most intense portion of this band.

If you must travel in this area, be prepared for severe winter
driving conditions with near zero visibility and deep snow cover on
roads.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
Oswego, Fulton, Pulaski, Central Square, Redfield, Nine Mile Point,
Hastings, Scriba, Volney, Richland, Constantia, West Monroe,
Palermo, Sterling, New Haven and Minetto.

This includes Interstate 81 between exits 32 and 36.

SAFETY INFO...
The snow will accumulate so rapidly that it will be
extremely difficult for the road crews to keep the roads clear.

&&

LAT...LON 4342 7553 4348 7581 4333 7589 4332 7586
      4323 7588 4332 7672 4334 7672 4333 7675
      4334 7688 4339 7673 4345 7665 4356 7645
      4356 7631 4359 7626 4353 7530
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 276DEG 39KT 4343 7601

Hitchcock

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
501 PM EST Sun Nov 20 2022

NYZ005-006-008-210000-
Oswego NY-Lewis NY-Northern Cayuga NY-
501 PM EST Sun Nov 20 2022

...A VERY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL AFFECT PARTS OF
OSWEGO...FAR SOUTHERN LEWIS...AND FAR NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES...

HAZARDS...An intense band of lake effect snow will continue across
much of Oswego County, as well as far southern Lewis, and far
northern Cayuga counties through late afternoon. Snowfall rates will
reach 3 inches per hour in the most intense portion of this band.

If you must travel in this area, be prepared for severe winter
driving conditions with near zero visibility and deep snow cover on
roads.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
Oswego, Fulton, Pulaski, Central Square, Redfield, Nine Mile Point,
Hastings, Scriba, Volney, Richland, Constantia, West Monroe,
Palermo, Sterling, New Haven and Minetto.

This includes Interstate 81 between exits 32 and 36.

SAFETY INFO...
The snow will accumulate so rapidly that it will be extremely
difficult for the road crews to keep the roads clear.

&&

LAT...LON 4342 7553 4348 7582 4333 7589 4332 7586
      4316 7588 4320 7608 4327 7620 4322 7620
      4332 7672 4334 7672 4332 7676 4334 7687
      4339 7673 4345 7665 4356 7645 4356 7631
      4359 7626 4355 7527
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 276DEG 39KT 4336 7602

Hitchcock

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