Special Weather Statement, NWS Buffalo, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
201 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
More showers and thunderstorms expected today as low pressure to our
west inches closer to the Lower Lakes. Unsettled weather will
continue tonight through the first half of the week. Drier weather
returns for Wednesday before more unsettle weather returns for the
later half of the week as a cold front approaches the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
An area of showers with embedded thunderstorms is exiting our
eastern portion of the CWA (Jefferson/Lewis Co.) this afternoon. We
should see a break in storms there before more develop later
this afternoon.

Elsewhere...regional radars show two areas of convection, one
crossing central PA and the other area is to our SW moving across
Lake Erie and Erie PA. This will become our focus as we move
through the afternoon into this evening. With some measure of
clearing having taken place, insolation in combination with the
moist environment will potentially allow CAPE values to build
between 1000- 1500 J/KG. Given what has occur the previous day,
25-30 knots of 0- 6KM shear should be enough to support some
stronger storms capable of producing strong gusty winds and
hail. That said...SPC has placed parts our our area ( S. Tier)
in a Marginal Risk for severe weather today. Have mentioned this
in the HWO. Additionally...with PW values of 1.5 to 1.7 inches,
any of the stronger storms should be efficient rain makers but
will likely be moving right along limiting the flood potential.
The only concern could be training of cells over the same
locations. Will need to keep an eye out for that.

Tonight through Monday...the mid-level low will slowly meander east
while opening up into a trough as its axis slowly crosses the region
with periods of showers and some thunderstorms over this time frame.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The mid-level trough axis will finally begin to meander its way
through the CWA on Monday night and exit the area to the east on
Tuesday. Remaining lift ahead of the axis will drive shower chances
on Monday night, however drier air will start to filter into the
area by Tuesday. This drier air will be offset by cooling mid-level
temperatures and thus steeper mid-level lapse rates by Tuesday
daytime. This will bring with it a diurnal increase in shower
activity, especially inland from the lakes.

Diurnal showers from Tuesday will die quickly into Tuesday night as
dry and cold advection in the boundary layer take hold. This will
essentially end the rather prolonged unsettled pattern we will have
been in by then fairly abruptly.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Precipitation chances will dwindle by mid week as high pressure
slowly builds into the Great Lakes within general northwest flow
aloft. This will result in lower temperatures and humidity. The only
small mention of showers during this period will come with a weak
frontal boundary that will traverse the area late Thursday into
Friday as a shortwave impulse works into the region within the
northwesterly upper level flow.

Very late in the period, the trough over the Northeast starts to
show some indications in ensemble data of starting to retreat into
the Canadian maritimes. Once this occurs, ridging aloft starts to
build into the central Great Lakes. This may well be a prelude to
warmer conditions by the end of weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mid-level low to our west will inch ever so slowly east bringing
periods of showers and thunderstorms today into tonight. A brief
lull in the action before additional storms fire later this
afternoon bringing once again some restrictions (IFR-LIFR) at area
terminals. That said...there will likely be prolonged periods of VFR
conditions in between the showers and storms today.

Tonight...the mid-level low will continue its trek east with
additional showers and storms across the region. Again...any
stronger storms will bring brief restrictions at area terminals.

Outlook...

Monday...VFR/MVFR with showers and some thunderstorms.
Tuesday...mainly VFR but localized MVFR conditions in some showers
and thunderstorms.
Wednesday and THURSDAY...VFR.
Friday...mainly VFR with chance showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will generally be 10 knots or less with waves 2 feet or less
through Monday. It will be a bit choppier on the east end of Lake
Ontario, though conditions should remain below Small Craft Advisory
criteria.

With the lighter winds and lower waves, the main hazard for today
into Monday will be thunderstorms at times. Any thunderstorms will
be capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds and small
hail as well as heavy downpours.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...MF
LONG TERM...MF
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...AR/EAJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
151 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2022

NYZ001>008-010>014-221800-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-
151 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-221800-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
151 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ019>021-085-221800-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
151 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms will develop again this afternoon. Some of
the stronger storms will have the potential to produce frequent
lightning, gusty winds and very heavy rainfall this afternoon and
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
250 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2022

NYZ019-211930-
Chautauqua NY-
250 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Chautauqua
County through 330 PM EDT...

At 250 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Findley Lake, or 17 miles east of Erie, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph, pea size hail, and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible. Heavy rains could cause flooding.

Locations impacted include...
Westfield, Mayville, Clymer, Long Point State Park, Chautauqua
Institution, Findley Lake, Lake Erie State Park, Chautauqua,
Portland, Ripley, Stockton, Gerry, Brocton, Mina, French Creek,
Sherman, Cassadaga, Sinclairville, Panama and Bemus Point.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 90 between exits 60 and 61.
 Interstate 86 between exits 4 and 10.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4227 7976 4228 7973 4229 7974 4244 7946
      4223 7915 4200 7952 4200 7976
TIME...MOT...LOC 1850Z 231DEG 21KT 4216 7975

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

PP

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