Special Weather Statement, NWS Buffalo, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
220 PM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A large upper level storm over the region will keep a fair amount of
clouds in place into Thursday while maintaining the opportunity
for some needed rainfall. Most of the showers and scattered
thunderstorms will be experienced during this afternoon and again
Wednesday afternoon. Along with the return of sun filled skies on
Friday...temperatures will climb well above normal into the low to
mid 80s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A large upper level storm system centered over Pennsylvania and New
York late today will SLOWLY drift east to New England tonight and
Wednesday...as twin vortices will orbit about its center. This
system will maintain a wealth of clouds across our forecast area in
the process...while H85 temps of 12c and H5 temps of -15c will keep
the environment conditionally unstable.

This instability is being showcased this afternoon with convection
over the Genesee valley...where despite the lack of any shear...tall
but near vertical...slow moving convection is producing torrential
downpours along with some pea sized hail. This and...any other
afternoon convection...will die off late this afternoon and evening
but will become re-established across the region Wednesday midday
and afternoon.

The mainly diurnally driven shower/storm activity will then once
again give way to rair weather Wednesday night.

Max temperatures will average a a little below normal for the
remainder of the afternoon...as well as on Wednesday...while
overnight lows will be right near normal mid August levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned upper level closed low over New England will
meet up with a coastal low Thursday, where by Thursday night both
features will become vertically stacked. This being said, the
lower Great Lakes region will remain of the backside of the low
pressure system which will produce a marginal lake response as
winds back more north-northwest Wednesday night into Thursday and
therefore kept the slight chance and chance for lake effect rain
showers Wednesday night into Thursday. Additionally, later on
Thursday diurnally driven showers/thunderstorms will be possible
once again.

Thursday night, the stacked low pressure system will continue to
progress north into the Canadian Maritimes allowing for some upper
level ridging and surface high pressure to spill across the Great
Lakes. With the incoming ridging and surface high pressure, expect
mostly dry conditions Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Another potent shortwave trough will dive south from the Canadian
Prairies and into the Upper Midwest Friday. Similar to the low
pressure system earlier in the work week, this feature will closely
follow suit by closing off and slowing down its progression across
the Upper Mississippi Valley through the first couple of days of the
weekend. On the bright side, the slowing progression of the trough
will support ridging, surface high pressure and consequently a
period of dry weather across the region Friday through most of the
day Saturday.

As of 00Z model guidance packages arrive, the weakening upper level
low is progged to track east late Saturday and Saturday night which
would support a chance for some scattered showers Saturday night,
mainly across Western New York. Then increasing moisture along with
diurnal heating will support better chances for showers and
thunderstorms Sunday afternoon, though the best opportunity for
showers and storms will arrive as the system nears the area at the
start of the next work week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
While VFR conditions will be found at most of the TAF sites through
this forecast period...a large upper level storm system will help to
support scattered convection this afternoon and again on Wednesday
(mainly after 16z). MVFR conditions could be found in the vcnty of
any convection.

Another time period to watch will be late tonight when some IFR
criteria stratus and fog could develop across the Southern Tier.
Should this develop...it would likely give way to VFR conditons by
14z.

Outlook...

Thursday...Mainly VFR. Chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms
with local/brief flight restrictions.
Friday and Saturday...VFR.
Sunday...VFR, but with deteriorating conditions later in the day.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will remain anchored over Quebec through Wednesday,
with general low pressure over the southeast states and along the
east coast. This will maintain an extended period of northeast winds
on Lake Ontario and Lake Erie. Sustained wind speeds will generally
be 10-13 knots, producing a light chop at times.

As we advance through tonight...H85 temps of 12c will combine with
a convective depth of nearly 25kft to establish a minimal chance for
waterspouts. Any shower activity over the lakes late tonight into
Wednesday should be closely watched for possible waterspouts.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
519 AM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-170930-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
519 AM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western and north central New
York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-170930-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
519 AM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A few waterspouts are possible later tonight on Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A few waterspouts are possible Wednesday through Thursday on Lake
Erie and Lake Ontario.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-LOZ030-SLZ022-024-170930-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
519 AM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Ontario and Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Hitchcock

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
245 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 S LE ROY              42.94N 78.00W
08/16/2022  M3.00 INCH       GENESEE            NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
309 PM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022

NYZ010>012-085-162000-
Southern Erie NY-Wyoming NY-Genesee NY-Northern Erie NY-
309 PM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Wyoming,
northeastern Erie and southwestern Genesee Counties through 400 PM
EDT...

At 308 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Akron to Marilla. Movement was west at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
West Seneca, Clarence, Depew, Lancaster, East Aurora, Darien Lakes
State Park, Elma, Marilla, Pembroke, Bennington, Akron, Alden, Wales
Center, Elma Center, Billington Heights, Corfu, Clarence Center and
Cowlesville.

This includes Interstate 90 near exit 48A.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4306 7867 4275 7872 4275 7841 4304 7836
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 092DEG 18KT 4297 7851 4283 7853

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

HSK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
323 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HAIL             MARILLA                 42.84N 78.56W
08/16/2022  M0.50 INCH       ERIE               NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
334 PM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022

NYZ001-010-085-162015-
Southern Erie NY-Niagara NY-Northern Erie NY-
334 PM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Erie
and southwestern Niagara Counties through 415 PM EDT...

At 334 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Clarence, moving west at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Buffalo, Cheektowaga, West Seneca, North Tonawanda, Clarence,
Lackawanna, Kenmore, Depew, Tonawanda, Amherst, Lancaster, East
Aurora, Williamsville, Grand Island, Elma, Marilla, Orchard Park,
Akron, Erie Basin Marina and Small Boat Harbor.

This includes Interstate 90 between exits 49 and 56.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4308 7907 4305 7849 4276 7856 4278 7895
      4280 7892 4284 7893 4289 7891 4293 7891
      4296 7893 4296 7896 4299 7901 4302 7902
      4305 7900 4306 7900
TIME...MOT...LOC 1934Z 091DEG 7KT 4294 7860

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

HSK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
337 PM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022

NYZ004>006-162015-
Oswego NY-Wayne NY-Northern Cayuga NY-
337 PM EDT Tue Aug 16 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Wayne,
Cayuga and southwestern Oswego Counties through 415 PM EDT...

At 337 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lysander, or 7 miles southwest of Fulton, moving west at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fulton, Fair Haven Beach State Park, Cato, Sterling, Ira, Conquest,
Wolcott, Hannibal, Red Creek, Meridian, South Hannibal, Granby Center
and South Butler.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4323 7648 4315 7648 4315 7647 4314 7649
      4313 7648 4307 7679 4334 7683 4333 7642
      4323 7640
TIME...MOT...LOC 1937Z 084DEG 8KT 4324 7651

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

HSK