Special Weather Statement, NWS Buffalo, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1156 PM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will cross our region tonight...and while some
showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue...the new airmass
will only offer minimal relief from our mid summer heat. A few
showers and spotty thunderstorms will again be possible on
Thursday...as a weak trough will cross the region. Drier weather
will then return Friday and Saturday...although a few spotty showers
and storms cannot be ruled out each day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Currently, a broken line of thunderstorms is tracking into WNY along
and just ahead of a weak cold front that will cross our region
tonight. This area of convection is associated with a plume of
notably higher theta e values...which can partially be inferred by
the Tds in the upper 60s to lower 70s in that area. As one would
expect... MLCAPE values are higher in this area as well with 03Z
values still 1000+ j/kg. This particular plume is expected to
drift across the western counties through 06z...with a few of
these storms having already prompted severe thunderstorm
warnings. The convection should weaken with time as it pushes
east of the Genesee valley overnight.

Otherwise...it will be a sultry night with mins across the lower
elevations remaining in the 70s.

Thursday...a few showers may still be ongoing in the morning east of
Lake Ontario with the pre-frontal trough. The weak surface based
cold front (more of a dewpoint boundary by this time) will cross the
eastern Great Lakes during the day, producing a few more showers and
widely scattered thunderstorms. The best juxtaposition of large
scale support and low level convergence will be found east of Lake
Ontario, where the best coverage of showers and thunder potential
will be found. A few storms may briefly become strong east of Lake
Ontario, but the better severe weather risk will be in eastern NY
and western New England.

Across Western NY, most of the showers and isolated thunder will
focus along and inland of lake breeze boundaries Thursday. Expect a
few showers to develop from the western Southern Tier into the
western Finger Lakes from late morning through the afternoon south
and east of the stabilizing flow off Lake Erie. A convergence zone
will likely develop due to lake modified boundary layer flow from
the Niagara Peninsula east across the Niagara Frontier and down the
Route 104 corridor through Rochester to Oswego County, supporting a
few scattered showers or an isolated thunderstorm from late morning
through late afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front presses into eastern NY/western New England Thursday
night. Aside from a leftover shower well east of Lake Ontario,
surface high pressure nosing in from the southwest will provide a
mainly dry night with slightly cooler temps as lows drop back into
the 60s areawide.

Mainly dry and warm conditions are expected Friday, however there
are indications that a weak shortwave may move across southern
NY/northern PA bringing the chance for a few showers and
thunderstorms, mainly across the western Southern Tier and Finger
Lakes region. Fairly strong shear profiles combined with favorable
timing coinciding with peak heating will yield  the chance for an
isolated strong storm or two across the interior Southern Tier
Friday afternoon/early evening. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s,
some upper 70s across the hilltops.

Surface high pressure quickly noses back north from the Ohio Valley
bringing dry weather back in across western and northcentral NY for
Friday night, with mainly dry weather expected to last into Saturday
as well, although there could be an isolated shower/rumble of
thunder or two along and inland of any lake breeze circulations
during the afternoon/early evening. Center of high pressure slides
into the Mid Atlantic region Saturday which will initiate a low
level southwesterly return flow that will pump another surge of very
warm air back in across our area as 850mb temps make another run at
20C or so. Very warm to hot by Saturday afternoon with highs mainly
in the upper 80s to low 90s, some mid 80s across the hilltops.

Strong cold front will move from the upper Great Lakes to the
central Great Lakes Saturday night, which will bring at least
increasing chances for some scattered showers/isolated storms across
our area, especially toward early Sunday morning out ahead of the
southeastward advancing boundary.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A pre-frontal trough ahead of a strong cold front will likely move
through on Sunday, followed by the cold frontal passage Sunday
evening. Improving model agreement on timing, with showers likely
and possibly some thunderstorms Sunday and through Sunday evening.
It will still be hot and fairly humid Sunday with highs mainly in
the 80s.

The cold front will lose its momentum some as it gradually pushes
south of the area on Monday. There may be some lingering showers
across the Southern Tier, but the vast majority of the day will be
rain-free and notably cooler and less humid. A mid level ridge and
surface high pressure will build across the area and maintain the
dry pattern through Tuesday night. Daytime highs will range from the
mid 70s to lower 80s Monday and Tuesday.

The surface high will exit to the east across New England on Wednesday
with a chance convection associated with an approaching
shortwave will spark some showers and possibly a thunderstorm
during the day.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
While a cold front crossing the region will support scattered
showers and thunderstorms tonight...generally VFR weather should
remain in place outside of any heavier rainfall.

Thursday...a few showers and widely scattered thunderstorms will
continue as another weak trough crosses the eastern Great Lakes. The
best coverage will be found east of Lake Ontario. Across Western NY
expect more spotty coverage of showers and a small chance of a
thunderstorm, mainly along and inland of the lake breeze boundaries.
Abundant low level moisture may produce a few areas of MVFR CIGS
from morning through early afternoon.

Outlook...

Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR with a small chance of a few
spotty showers and thunderstorms.
Sunday...Areas of MVFR with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Monday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will cross the eastern Great Lakes tonight, with a line
of showers and thunderstorms possibly producing locally strong winds
and higher waves on Lake Erie and the west end of Lake Ontario this
evening through the early overnight. There may be several hours of
moderate southwest winds on Lake Erie tonight behind the convective
line. This has prompted a small craft advisory that will run through
the day Thursday for Lake Erie.

Another weak front will cross the eastern Great Lakes Thursday. This
will produce moderate west-southwest winds on Lake Ontario with a
period of Small Craft Advisory conditions on the eastern portion of
Lake Ontario. Winds and waves will diminish Thursday night.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for LEZ040-041.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/RSH
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/RSH/SW
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...Apffel
AVIATION...Hitchcock/RSH/SW
MARINE...Hitchcock

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1024 AM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022

NYZ001-010-211430-
Niagara-Northern Erie-
1024 AM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms this evening and
early tonight. Isolated damaging winds and large hail will be the
main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ019-211430-
Chautauqua-
1024 AM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms this evening and
early tonight. Isolated damaging winds and large hail will be the
main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ012-021-211430-
Wyoming-Allegany-
1024 AM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ002>006-011-013-014-211430-
Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Genesee-Livingston-
Ontario-
1024 AM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Heat Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-008-211430-
Jefferson-Lewis-
1024 AM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms on Thursday.
Isolated damaging winds and large hail are the main threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ020-085-211430-
Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
1024 AM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms this evening and
early tonight. Isolated damaging winds and large hail will be the
main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042-062-211430-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
1024 AM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms this evening and
early tonight. Strong winds and large hail will be the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ043>045-063>065-SLZ022-024-211430-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
1024 AM EDT Wed Jul 20 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario and
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Hitchcock

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1156 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1139 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E ALBION              43.24N 78.16W
07/20/2022                   ORLEANS            NY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN BLOCKING ROAD.

&&

JLA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1212 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 3 S BUFFALO             42.85N 78.87W
07/20/2022  M40 MPH          LEZ041             NY   MESONET

&&

JLA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1225 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1134 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNE ELMA CENTER       42.86N 78.61W
07/20/2022                   ERIE               NY   911 CALL CENTER

            FALLEN TREE WRAPPED IN POWER LINES. TREE IS
            BLOCKING ROAD.

&&

JLA

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