Special Weather Statement, NWS Buffalo, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
951 AM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through our region today, and this will
result in showers and possibly some strong to severe thunderstorms.
Cooler and more comfortable weather will then settle into the region
for the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
...Strong Thunderstorms Possible Today...

The MCS that has been generating moderately heavy rain across the
Eastern Lake Ontario during the past several hours is weakening...as
noted by significant cloud top warming along with downward
radar/lightning trends. While there can still be another half inch
or so of rain with some of the embedded convection or with the
storms moving inland from eastern Lake Ontario...the severe weather
threat for this area has significantly waned. As much as an inch
of rain has already fallen in the vcnty of the Tug Hill.

Our attention will now gradually shift to the afternoon convection
ahead of a slow moving cold front. Given the general lack of cloud
cover over the western counties through 1330z...the airmass has
already become unstable through the boundary layer to the tune of
SBCAPEs of 500 j/kg or so. The morning KBUF sounding showed
significant instability already aloft. As we push through the rest of
the morning into the afternoon...SBCAPEs are forecast to average
1500 j/kg or so.

Synoptically speaking...a cold front will move across the region
late this afternoon and evening, however most convection is likely
to develop ahead of this boundary, likely along a pre-frontal trough
which is likely to be just ahead of the aforementioned cold front.
Storms may also develop along lake breeze boundaries.

A warm and moderately unstable airmass will be parked over our
region with Td's generally in the mid 60s. This will play a role in
supporting potentially strong convection over the remainder of the
region in the afternoon. As the cold front advances into our region,
it will be preceded by 30-40kts of shear (mainly speed) and SBCAPEs
of around 1500 j/kg. This would support some organized convection
with straight line wind gusts being the main concern. SPC currently
has most of our CWA outlined in a slight risk area for severe
storms. PWAT values will increase to around 1.75 inches, so storms
may also contain heavy downpours. Storm motion will limit the risk
for flash flooding, but the risk is non-zero with WPC carrying a
marginal risk for most of the area. Otherwise it will be a warm and
humid day, with the bulk of the morning being rainfree south of Lake
Ontario.

In the wake of the cold front...notable drying in the mid and upper
levels will shut down any residual showers and thunderstorms early
this evening with at least partial clearing overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A secondary cold front associated with the vertically stacked low
over NW Ontario will track through the forecast area on Thursday
morning. As the front slowly tracks east, a wave of low pressure
will shift northeast along the front out of the Ohio Valley. This
will cause showers to increase, first for the Southern Tier, with
shower coverage increasing to the northeast into the North Country.
Exact timing and placement of the cold front will be key as the wave
of low pressure tracks north along the boundary, and farther west
and there will be more rain for areas such as Buffalo and Rochester,
any farther east will result in less rain for the entire area.
Guidance is still split on timing of the low passage and how quick
the front will track through. POPs at least chance for entire area
at different times of the day Thursday and Thursday evening.
Thunderstorm activity should be limited to areas near and south of
the NY/PA border where the better instability is expected. High
temperatures on Thursday will be in the upper 60s to low 70s before
the cold front tracks across the area.

Thursday night, some guidance fills the rain in farther north along
the front as a potential shortwave trough pivots around the larger
trough/low. The best potential for showers to fill in will be
generally from Rochester and points east, but as the shortwave
trough tracks north of Lake Ontario, additional showers are possible
for the entire area. Low temperatures will be in the upper 40s to
low 50s Thursday night with cold air advection behind the passing
cold front.

Lingering showers over the far eastern portion of the forecast area
east of Lake Ontario will taper off Friday morning. The rest of the
forecast area should be mainly dry, BUT a guidance is indicating a
weak shortwave trough tracking through, causing a few light
diurnally driven showers or sprinkles, but there isn't enough
agreement between the models to put POPs in at this point.
Temperatures on Friday will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Dry weather continues through Friday night when lows will be in the
upper 40s to around 50 again.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An area of high pressure will move across the eastern Great Lakes
Saturday and Sunday bringing fair and dry weather to the region.
Currently the GFS is the outlier showing some showers moving into
the region starting Sunday morning with an approaching warm front,
other guidance pushes this front farther north into Canada, and
later in the day on Sunday, keeping WNY drier. Temperatures will be
likely be below to near normal through the weekend with highs in the
upper 60s to mid 70s.

Shower potential increases Monday into Tuesday as a trough and cold
front cross the WNY and North Central NY areas. Still some timing
issues among guidance, but early Tuesday into Tuesday night look
like the best chance for showers. With guidance still split on
timing of cold frontal passage, GFS is earlier, with passage on
Monday, so left chance POPs in for now until better certainty
exists. Temperatures will become above normal during this time frame
with highs in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An MCS across southeastern Ontario will track across the North
Country this morning, resulting in a period of MVFR or lower
conditions at KART through 16Z. During this time, just widely
scattered storms elsewhere.

More widespread thunderstorms will develop this afternoon. Tricky to
pin down exact time and location, but in general most of the storms
will impact TAF sites between 17Z and 23Z. These may produce gusty
winds, and MVFR or lower conditions in heavy rain.

Thunderstorms will taper off to showers this evening as a cold
front exits to our south and east. Some lingering MVFR/IFR cigs
behind the front.

Outlook...

Thursday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers.
Friday...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers for North Country.
Saturday and Sunday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and waves in general are expected to remain below
advisory levels through the work week. Choppy conditions at
times today as a cold front approaches and then moves across
the waters. Still expecting just below small craft levels with
the cooler lake water temperatures.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Apffel
NEAR TERM...Apffel/RSH
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...HSK/SW
AVIATION...Apffel
MARINE...Apffel

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
409 AM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022

NYZ006>008-020900-
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
409 AM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms may produce strong to damaging winds today. Heavy rain
and localized flooding is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085-020900-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Southern Erie-
409 AM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms may produce strong to damaging winds this afternoon
through early evening. Heavy rain and localized flooding is also
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-020900-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
409 AM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms may produce strong winds today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Apffel

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
918 AM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022

NYZ006>008-011415-
Jefferson NY-Oswego NY-Lewis NY-
918 AM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022

...Heavy Rain and Gusty Winds across the Eastern Lake Ontario This
Morning...

At 915 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Adams to near Cicero. Movement was east
at 40 mph. This line of storms could produce wind gusts to 40 mph
along with frequent cloud to ground lightning.

Besides this line of thunderstorms, the entire Eastern Lake Ontario
region will continue to receive moderately heavy rain into the late
morning. Some areas could receive upwards of an inch to an inch and
a half of rain by lunchtime.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Watertown, Oswego, Fulton, Fort Drum, Sandy Island Beach State Park,
Stony Point, Carthage, Lowville, Pulaski, West Carthage, Clayton,
Central Square, Adams, Dexter, Redfield, Glen Park, Herrings, Kring
Point State Park, Highmarket and Mexico Point State Park.

This includes Interstate 81 between exits 32 and 52.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4410 7517 4361 7511 4342 7553 4348 7581
      4318 7588 4320 7608 4327 7620 4322 7620
      4327 7660 4349 7657 4356 7645 4358 7626
      4387 7635 4384 7645 4387 7650 4396 7644
      4395 7634 4410 7643 4420 7631 4440 7586
TIME...MOT...LOC 1315Z 280DEG 34KT 4378 7594 4323 7605

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RSH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1044 AM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022

NYZ001>003-010-011-011630-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester,
Buffalo, and Batavia
1044 AM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022

...Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Likely This Afternoon...

While there will be some spotty showers and thunderstorms around
through midday... strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are
expected to develop across the region after 1 PM. Any storms that
develop will have the risk of generating strong wind gusts in
excess of 40 mph along with localized one hour rainfall amounts of
one to two inches. Such rainfall could result in localized
flooding and would certainly result in signifciant ponding on
areas roadways.

Lightning associated with these storms will also likely include a
higher percentage of more intense, positively charged cloud to
ground strikes. Such lightning is more deadly and is more
efficient at producing damage (ie. structure fires).

RSH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1227 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022

NYZ002-003-011730-
Orleans NY-Monroe NY-
1227 PM EDT Wed Jun 1 2022

...Showers and Thunderstorms with Heavy Rain through 2 PM...

At 1224 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking several heavy showers and
thunderstorms, one of which was near Holley and Albion, moving east
at 25 mph. This activity will produce one hour rainfall amounts of
an inch and a half in some areas resulting significant ponding on
area roadways and possibly some poor drainage flooding. Since the
storms may move over the same area, higher rainfall amounts will be
possible.

HAZARD...Heavy rain and winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Rochester, Greece, Irondequoit, Brockport, Medina, Albion, Hilton,
Webster, Brighton, Hamlin Beach State Park, Gates-North Gates,
Penfield, Spencerport, Holley, Waterport, Lakeside Beach State Park,
Point Breeze, Kent, Ridgeway and Shelby.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4340 7792 4339 7775 4328 7754 4332 7738
      4313 7739 4314 7845 4341 7846
TIME...MOT...LOC 1624Z 267DEG 22KT 4323 7808

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

RSH