Special Weather Statement, NWS Buffalo, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
410 AM EST Sat Feb 26 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Accumulating lake effect snow will continue southeast of the lakes
early this morning, then shift to the east of the lakes through the
day today. An arctic front may bring brief snow squalls to the
region Sunday. Dry but cool weather returns Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Cold northwest flow keeping a 'fluffy' lake effect snow along the
south shore of Lake Ontario early this morning. For the most
part this activity is relatively light, however a sharp
convergence right along the shoreline focusing more impactful
snow showers from Monroe to Oswego county, centered on Wayne
county. This area could receive accumulations of 2-4 inches
this morning, perhaps even bit more due to the fluffy nature of
the snow, where local accumulations near 6" is possible.

Steering flow will become southwesterly today. This will shift any
lake snow from the south shore of Lake Ontario northward. Some minor
accumulations are likely. Otherwise, today should be relatively
uneventful in terms of sensible weather as a subtle shortwave ridge
moves across, then east of the region.

Southwest flow continuing tonight ahead of an approaching
arctic boundary. This will continue to keep the potential for
accumulating lake snows east of Lake Ontario. Depth of synoptic
moisture increases and improves the potential for accumulations
which will last into Sunday, as the arctic boundary drops
through. Several inches of snow is certainly possible especially
on the Tug Hill.

Conditions to look favorable for the development snow squalls,
especially during the afternoon as the arctic front presses through.
A 45-50 knot low level jet will be passing overhead, bringing
the potential for gusty winds. Any snow squalls will move
southeast along and behind the front, with briefly intense
snowfall rates around 1"/hr and gusts up to 45 mph. Any wet
roadways will freeze quickly as temperatures plummet behind the
boundary.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Strong cold air advection continues behind a cold front Sunday
night. Lake effect snow showers will develop south of the Lakes as
flow veers from west-northwest to northwest. Conditions improve for
lake effect snow south of Lake Ontario as 850mb temperatures fall to
-18C and inversion heights become 5-6k feet. The RGEM suggests the
Genesee Valley to the Finger Lakes as the most favorable spot for
minor accumulations into Monday morning. Cold Sunday night with
temperatures in the single digits across western NY to the minus
single digits east of Lake Ontario.

High pressure moves overhead Monday and any snow showers will end in
the morning. Dry conditions expected Monday and Monday night. Chilly
Monday with temperatures climbing to the low to mid 20s across
western NY and the teens east of Lake Ontario. Cold again Monday
night with temperatures falling to the single digits to low teens
across western NY and around zero east of Lake Ontario.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A low amplitude trough will move into the Great Lakes region Tuesday
and persist through most of the work week. Multiple embedded
shortwaves will rotate around the base of the trough and deliver
rounds of snow showers with temperatures mainly below normal
(except for Tuesday.)

Model consensus shows an area of low pressure tracking near or
across the eastern Great Lakes region Tuesday-Tuesday night.
Temperatures will likely rise ahead of the system on Tuesday. Cold
air advection will then produce the potential for rain and snow
showers becoming all snow showers by Wednesday. A strong cold front
may move through the region Wednesday night into Thursday bringing
cold temperatures and snow showers to the area. High pressure should
move into the region behind the front and mostly dry conditions are
possible Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NW flow will result in snow showers and flurries south of Lake
Ontario early this morning. Cigs will be MVFR to lower VFR while
visibility is mainly MVFR to VFR. Visibility could drop to IFR as a
heavier snow shower moves across a site, most likely from ROC to
FZY. Cigs will improve to VFR outside of lake snows.

The lake snow showers will shift northward during the day today,
impacting mainly areas between KFZY and KFZY with possible IFR
conditions. Otherwise conditions will be mainly VFR.

Outlook...

Sunday...MVFR/IFR flight conditions likely...within lake effect snow
to the northeast and east of the Lakes and then region wide with a
passing cold front. Monday...A few lake effect snow showers
southeast of Lake Ontario early, otherwise mainly VFR.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Wednesday...A chance of snow showers and MVFR
conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
West-northwest winds will becoming southwest today. The southwest
winds will increase tonight ahead of another approaching trough of
low pressure from Canada. Gales look possible on Lake Ontario on
Sunday and a Gale Watch remains in effect.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Following latest RFC guidance one flood warning remains up for
Tonawanda Creek at Rapids. The river has already crested and
will continue to fall slowly, dropping below flood stage later
this morning.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for
         LOZ042>045-062>065.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA
HYDROLOGY...TMA

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
438 AM EST Sat Feb 26 2022

NYZ004>006-261130-
Oswego NY-Wayne NY-Northern Cayuga NY-
438 AM EST Sat Feb 26 2022

...A BAND OF LAKE SNOW WILL AFFECT PARTS OF OSWEGO...WAYNE...AND
NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES...

HAZARDS...A band of lake effect snow which can rapidly reduce
visibility to less than a half mile. This band of heavy snow is
producing snow at the rate of up to 1 inch per hour.

LOCATION AND MOVEMENT...At 434 AM EST, a band of lake effect snow
extended across northern Wayne, northern Cayuga into southwest
Oswego county. This band will drift northward through 630 am.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
Oswego, Fulton, Fair Haven Beach State Park, Lysander, Chimney Bluffs
State Park, Nine Mile Point, Battle Island State Park, Scriba,
Volney, Palermo, Sterling, New Haven, Phoenix, Ira, Huron, Wolcott,
Minetto, Sodus Point, Hannibal and Red Creek.

SAFETY INFO...
Conditions can deteriorate rapidly in winter weather situations. Be
prepared for snow or ice covered roads. Slow down and allow extra
time to reach your destination.

&&

LAT...LON 4327 7620 4322 7620 4321 7625 4324 7626
      4324 7627 4321 7626 4321 7629 4323 7631
      4323 7646 4319 7648 4315 7696 4332 7707
      4331 7697 4334 7691 4335 7681 4353 7649
      4357 7638 4356 7628 4327 7619
TIME...MOT...LOC 0934Z 238DEG 49KT 4313 7671

TMA