Special Weather Statement, NWS Buffalo, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
134 AM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Another cold front will push across our region overnight into Friday
morning. This will be accompanied by accumulating lake enhanced
snows east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, and a return to
sub arctic temperatures through most of the upcoming weekend. We
will be warmer at times next week, though extent and timing of
that warm up is still in question.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Light snow and flurries, enhanced to the east of the lakes are
occurring ahead of arctic cold front which is still to our
northwest. Radar and sfc obs indicate leading trough, wind
shift pressing across southern Lake Ontario. This boundary has
really helped enhance the snow east of Lake Ontario with a
corridor of moderate to heavy snow from near Henderson to
Watertown/Fort Durm and as far south as the Tug Hill. Snowfall
rates likely at least 1 inch per hour. Expect this area of
heavier snow to slowly settle more toward Tug Hill and northern
Oswego county next few hours as flow veers from southwest to
more westerly as the initial boundary moves across early this
morning.

Per BUF VWP, the low-level flow off Lake Erie has quickly shifted to
more west or even west-northwest. Result is limited strong
persistent low-level convergence that was anticipated. Radar
echoes do not look near as impressive as what is occurring east
of Lake Ontario. Ongoing winter weather advisory likely will be
ended early this morning, but will wait on this to see if arrival
of front can lead to more of a flare up compared to what is
occurring at present.

True arctic front still north of Hamilton and Toronto as of 1 AM,
but it is closing in quickly as winds just went northwest at
Toronto. Expect the arctic front to arrive across our area
toward daybreak with readings falling from the mid to upper 20s
at present to around 10 above over the North Country and into
at least the upper teens elsewhere. Arrival of the arctic front
will swing winds to more northerly direction which will push the
heavier snow over Oswego county in a more progressive state
over Wayne/N. Cayuga and rest of Oswego county. Additional snow
amounts will be an inch maybe two for the morning, after daybreak.
Would think winter weather advisories east of Lake Ontario to
Oswego county will be able to be dropped early as lake effect
falls apart rather quickly as low-level convergence diminishes
with onset of more northerly flow.

For the rest of the day, high pressure extending from the central
plains to the Upper Great Lakes will set up a north to northeast
flow of increasingly cold sub arctic air. Afternoon temps will remain
in the teens across the western counties and in the single digits
across parts of the North Country. The cold northerly flow will
keep lake snows south-southeast of both lakes...but with a lowering
cap accums will be limited.

The lake snows will end off Lk Erie Friday evening as winds veer to
the northeast...but light greasy lake snows will persist south of
Lake Ontario. Temps will bottom out between 5 and -5F over the
western counties...with mins temps in the teens below zero east of
Lk Ontario. Likely will need wind chill headlines (combo of warnings
and advisories) over good part of the area given expected apparent
temps. Warnings most likely east of Lake Ontario.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A cold airmass remains across the region Saturday night. A
Nor'easter will tracking north off the east coast with direct
impacts along the I-95 corridor. A north-northwest flow across the
eastern Great Lakes will keep the chance for scattered lake effect
snow showers south of Lake Ontario Saturday with minor
accumulations. Cold, with temperatures only reaching the mid-teens
across western NY and the mid-single digits across the North
Country. Wind chills will likely stay below zero across the region
Saturday. Mostly dry conditions expected Saturday night with low
temperatures around zero across western NY and 10 below across the
North Country. Winds will still around and wind chills will likely
reach 10 to 15 below across western NY and 25 below across the North
Country. A surface ridge axis moves into the region late Saturday
night and a southwest flow sets up over Lake Erie while a northwest
flow continues across Lake Ontario. An increase in moisture ahead of
a trough could result in a minor lake response east of Lake Erie and
southeast of Lake Ontario.

The surface ridge axis moves further into the region Sunday.
Moisture will continue to increase across Lake Erie Sunday and light
snow is possible across western NY with lake enhancement east of
Lake Erie. Lake snows possible east-northeast of Lake Ontario with
minor accumulation expected. Temperatures will rise into the low to
mid 20s across western NY and to the teens across the North Country
Sunday. Lake aggregate troughing expected Sunday night and lake snows
possible close to the lake shores. Temperatures will fall to the
single digits Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A thaw will commence with the turn of the month and will peak
towards the end of next week...with widespread rain and snowpack
ablation.

Before the thaw, Monday morning will still feature a few lake effect
snow showers to the east and northeast of the Lakes especially off
Lake Ontario. Warming aloft coupled with increase dry air within the
snow DGZ will end any lingering light snow showers or flurries
through the day Monday.

While a few locations will reach the freezing mark Monday, clear
skies to start the evening Monday with high pressure nearby to our
east will allow for one more cold night...with temperatures dropping
down into the teens across WNY, and single digits early east of Lake
Ontario.

This high pressure will slowly nudge eastward Tuesday - Thursday
with an initial cold front nearing our region Tuesday - Wednesday.
This front will stall, bringing low chances for rain showers Tuesday
Night and Wednesday, this as a much stronger surface low forms over
the Southern Plains.

While models are still having timing differences to the speed of
this second low, they all agree that in the Thursday - Thursday
Night time frame the low will pass by to our west (not terribly deep
at around 1000 mb) bringing a surge of warm air northward on a 50 to
60 knot LLJ across our region along with a period of rain.

This warmth, peaking Thursday coupled with a southerly breeze and
dewpoints rising above freezing will put a major dent into our
existing deep snowpack. Biggest drop in the snowpack will likely be
Thursday when a primed snowpack encounters an airmass that will
likely bring air temperatures to 50F if not warmer to WNY along with
a period of rain. Late next week will need to be watched for
possible ice jams along with any flooding with the combination of
rain and snowmelt.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Intermittent light snow will impact majority of the terminals early
this morning as arctic front approaches. Heaviest lake effect is now
settling south of ART, so looks like we are done with any LIFR or
maybe even IFR conditions there. BUF, IAG and ROC will see mainly
MVFR conditions, though a brief snow shower with IFR vsby is
possible. Greatest potential for prevailing IFR, mainly due to lower
vsby, will be at JHW as lake effect snows off Lake Erie settle over
the Southern Tier.

After daybreak this morning, expect lake effect snow to rapidly
weaken as boundary layer flow becomes northerly and the airmass
dries significantly. This will produce a spray of lake effect
flurries and light snow showers south of the lakes with areas of
MVFR/brief IFR. This may continue through Friday night south of
both lakes.

Outlook...

Saturday...Mainly VFR but MVFR at KROC and possibly at KJHW.
Sunday...VFR but MVFR possible at KART in snow showers.
Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A leading sfc trough will cross the region early this morning
with a stronger arctic front dropping in from the north toward
daybreak. Southwest winds up to 25 knots ahead of the trough
will shift northwest 15-20 knots early this morning behind the
trough, then veer further to the north-northeast this afternoon
while diminishing to 10-15 knots. Small craft advisories remain
in effect as outlined below.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     NYZ007-008.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ006-019-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
         LEZ020-040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
         LOZ042>044.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for
         LOZ045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/RSH
NEAR TERM...JLA/RSH
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...Hitchcock/JLA
MARINE...JLA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
222 PM EST Thu Jan 27 2022

NYZ007-008-281930-
Jefferson-Lewis-
222 PM EST Thu Jan 27 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

Wind chills may be as cold as 20 below zero Friday night and into
Saturday morning, and possibly again Saturday Night into Sunday
morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006-281930-
Oswego-
222 PM EST Thu Jan 27 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM
EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

Wind chills may be as cold as 15 below zero Friday night and into
Saturday morning, and possibly again Saturday Night into Sunday
morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ019-085-281930-
Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
222 PM EST Thu Jan 27 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM
EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

Lake effect snow will gradually diminish on Friday morning.

Wind chills may be as cold as 15 below zero Friday night and into
Saturday morning, and possibly again Saturday Night into Sunday
morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004-005-281930-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
222 PM EST Thu Jan 27 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Lake effect snow near the Lake Ontario shoreline could produce
several inches of accumulation on Friday if snow bands are
persistent.

Wind chills may be as cold as 15 below zero Friday night and into
Saturday morning, and possibly again Saturday Night into Sunday
morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001>003-010>014-020-021-281930-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Ontario-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
222 PM EST Thu Jan 27 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Wind chills may be as cold as 15 below zero Friday night and into
Saturday morning, and possibly again Saturday Night into Sunday
morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-281930-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
222 PM EST Thu Jan 27 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

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