Alert archive / New York / Small Craft Advisories in 2022

Small Craft Advisory 90, NWS Buffalo, NY

September 21, 2022

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this small craft advisory at Sep 21, 2022, 4:12 AM EDT. It took effect at Sep 21, 2022, 2:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 48 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Sep 21, 2022, 4:12 AM EDT (08:12 UTC)
In effect from
Sep 21, 2022, 2:00 PM EDT
Expired
Sep 23, 2022, 1:34 PM EDT
In force
48 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

The text

As transmitted.

682 
WHUS71 KBUF 210812
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
412 AM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

LEZ040-041-211615-
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.220921T1800Z-220923T0900Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
412 AM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
5 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots today, and northwest winds
  15 to 25 knots late tonight through early Friday morning. Waves
  3 to 5 feet expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...From 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042>044-211615-
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.220922T0300Z-220924T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
412 AM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM
EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 5 to 8 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-211615-
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.220922T0600Z-220923T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
412 AM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From 2 AM Thursday to 8 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Hitchcock
12 follow-up statements
207 
WHUS71 KBUF 211403
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1003 AM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

LEZ040-041-212215-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.220921T1800Z-220923T0900Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1003 AM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots today, and northwest 
  winds 15 to 25 knots late tonight through early Friday 
  morning. Waves 3 to 5 feet expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...From 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042>044-212215-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.220922T0300Z-220924T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
1003 AM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 5 to 8 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-212215-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.220922T0600Z-220923T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1003 AM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO
8 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From 2 AM Thursday to 8 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$
512 
WHUS71 KBUF 212031
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
431 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

LEZ040-041-220500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-220923T0900Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
431 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042>044-220500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.220922T0300Z-220924T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
431 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING
TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots and waves 5 to 8 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-220500-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.220922T0600Z-220923T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
431 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO
8 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From 2 AM Thursday to 8 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$
739 
WHUS71 KBUF 220008
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
808 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

LOZ030-220900-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.220922T0600Z-220923T1800Z/
Lower Niagara River-
808 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 2 PM EDT
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots expected.

* WHERE...The Lower Niagara River.

* WHEN...From 2 AM Thursday to 2 PM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-220900-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-220923T0900Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
808 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042>044-220900-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.220922T0300Z-220924T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
808 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 5 to 8 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-220900-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.220922T0600Z-220923T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
808 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO
8 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From 2 AM Thursday to 8 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$
923 
WHUS71 KBUF 220324
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1124 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

LEZ040-041-221130-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-220923T0900Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1124 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042>044-221130-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-220924T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
1124 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 5 to 8 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-221130-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.220922T0600Z-220923T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1124 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From 2 AM Thursday to 8 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ030-221130-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.220922T0600Z-220923T1800Z/
Lower Niagara River-
1124 PM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots expected.

* WHERE...The Lower Niagara River.

* WHEN...From 2 AM Thursday to 2 PM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$
086 
WHUS71 KBUF 220836
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
436 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022

LEZ040-041-221645-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-220923T0900Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
436 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042>044-221645-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-220924T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
436 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds to 30 knots and waves 5 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-221645-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-220923T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
436 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ030-221645-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-220923T1800Z/
Lower Niagara River-
436 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots.

* WHERE...The Lower Niagara River.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$
718 
WHUS71 KBUF 221433
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1033 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022

LEZ040-041-222245-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-220923T0900Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1033 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042>044-222245-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-220924T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
1033 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds to 30 knots and waves 5 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-222245-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-220923T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1033 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ030-222245-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-220923T1800Z/
Lower Niagara River-
1033 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots.

* WHERE...The Lower Niagara River.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$
124 
WHUS71 KBUF 222032
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
432 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022

LEZ040-041-230445-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-220923T0900Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
432 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042>044-230445-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-220924T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
432 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-230445-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-220923T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
432 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ030-230445-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-220923T1800Z/
Lower Niagara River-
432 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots.

* WHERE...The Lower Niagara River.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$
048 
WHUS71 KBUF 230241
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1041 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022

LEZ040-041-230900-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-220923T0900Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1041 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042>044-231100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-220924T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
1041 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds to 30 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-231100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-220923T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
1041 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ030-231100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-220923T1800Z/
Lower Niagara River-
1041 PM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...North winds 20 to 25 knots.

* WHERE...The Lower Niagara River.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$
027 
WHUS71 KBUF 230846
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
446 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022

LEZ040-041-231000-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-220923T0900Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
446 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS
MORNING...

$$

LOZ042>044-231700-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-220924T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
446 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-231200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-220923T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
446 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ030-231700-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-220923T1800Z/
Lower Niagara River-
446 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 20 knots.

* WHERE...The Lower Niagara River.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$
119 
WHUS71 KBUF 231026
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
626 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022

LEZ040-041-231400-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-220923T1400Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
626 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042>044-231830-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-220924T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
626 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-231200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-220923T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
626 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ030-231800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-220923T1800Z/
Lower Niagara River-
626 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 20 knots.

* WHERE...The Lower Niagara River.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$
864 
WHUS71 KBUF 231348
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
948 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022

LEZ040-041-231500-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-220923T1400Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
948 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING...


$$

LOZ042>044-232200-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-220924T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
948 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ030-231800-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-220923T1800Z/
Lower Niagara River-
948 AM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 20 knots.

* WHERE...The Lower Niagara River.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$
626 
WHUS71 KBUF 231734
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
134 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022

LOZ042>044-231845-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-220924T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
134 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...


$$

LOZ030-231845-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0090.000000T0000Z-220923T1800Z/
Lower Niagara River-
134 PM EDT Fri Sep 23 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...


$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Sep 21, 1:19 AM EDT, 2 hours 53 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 21, 1:19 AM EDT, 2 hours 53 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
119 AM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide generally dry weather tonight, then a
warm front will move through bringing well above normal warmth
for Wednesday. Thunderstorms can be expected Wednesday afternoon and
evening in advance of a strong cold front. The coldest air of the
season can be expected in the wake of the front, along with lake
effect rain showers for Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A warm front will approach from the west overnight with increasing
mid and high clouds in advance of this front and with convective
debris clouds across the western Southern Tier. A deck of lower
clouds across the North Country will slowly clear from west to east
overnight. Elsewhere from the Niagara Frontier east across Rochester
to Oswego County, clear skies will prevail overnight. Some patchy
fog will continue across portions of Central NY.

Wednesday will start of mainly dry, although a few showers may
move across Western NY during the morning with a warm front.
Through early afternoon, it will be breezy (30+ mph gusts) and
warm with highs in the lower 80s across the lake plains and
upper 70s across higher terrain.

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

The weather will become much more active later Wednesday as a
strong shortwave will dig across Ontario province, forcing a strong
cold front across the region in the process Wednesday evening. Wind
shear will increase considerably during this time, with 850 mb winds
increasing to 45kts, along with a directional component. There also
should be ample instability in place in advance of the cold front,
although it's possible this will be limited by upstream debris
cloud cover. Model guidance also in fairly good agreement on timing,
with the greatest risk roughly between 3 pm and 9 pm although
strong storms just outside of these hours are possible. Damaging
winds remain the primary threat. However wind profiles may support
supercell development which could produce large hail, and even an
isolated tornado. SPC has the entire forecast area in a slight risk
for severe weather.

Precipitable water values will increase to around 1.75 inches,
which will support locally heavy downpours. However, the fast
storm motion should limit the risk for back building or flooding.

Showers and thunderstorms will be widespread Wednesday evening
before tapering of from northwest to southeast later in the night
as the front exits the region. A few lake effect rain showers may
develop late Wednesday night as 850mb temperatures plummet to
around +5C.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday and Thursday night the coolest air to date of this young
fall season will flood across our area...with the low level flow
steadily veering from northwesterly to northerly over time. At the
same time the axis of mid/upper level troughing will approach and
cross the Lower Lakes Region...with this feature passing across our
area between Thursday afternoon and early Thursday evening. The
latter will produce some scattered showers as it crosses our area
with lake influences and upsloping helping to enhance these
southeast of Lakes Erie and Ontario. As was mentioned previously...
we should see the best overall shower coverage Thursday afternoon
into early Thursday evening...when wraparound moisture and lift
attendant to the trough axis will be greatest. Owing to the
somewhat earlier timing of the trough passage relative to the
diurnal cycle and faster veering of the low-level flow...
upstream connections to Georgian Bay/Lake Huron do not look as
probable as they did earlier...though it's still quite possible
that one of these could briefly help to enhance the shower
activity over the Chautauqua Ridge.

Following the passage of the upper level trough axis...a shorter
northerly fetch across the lakes and diminishing synoptic-scale
moisture will lead to diminishing lake effect rain showers south of
both lakes Thursday night and early Friday...with high pressure and
much drier air then building in and providing our region with fair
dry weather for the balance of the period...along with continued
well below normal temperatures.

Speaking of which...highs on Thursday will range from the mid 50s
across the higher terrain to around 60 across the lower elevations...
with readings on Friday then a few notches cooler still given
850mb temperatures of around 0 degrees Celsius. Meanwhile...lows
Thursday night should range from the mid/upper 30s across interior
portions of the Southern Tier/North Country to the lower 40s
closer to the lakes...with lows Friday night likely even colder
(low-mid 30s across the Southern Tier/North Country to around 40
right along the immediate lakeshores). While there may be enough
of a surface gradient and cloud cover to preclude the development
of frost Thursday night...this will likely not be the case Friday
night when winds will be lighter and clouds should be limited to
some advancing cirrus. Should our currently forecast lows verify...
frost headlines may eventually be needed for the colder portions
of our area...with patchier frost possible elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upper level ridge, currently still in the process of taking
shape over the Rockies, will amplify behind the mid and late week
system, and should be overhead by Saturday.  Corresponding surface
high pressure should be overhead and moving slowly east, with dry
weather lasting through early Sunday.

The next precipitation maker looks like it will be partly made up of
the current cutoff west of Northern CA, and partly made up of
another more progressive feature currently near the Bering Sea. As
these features phase over the Great Lakes, lower level warm frontal
precipitation is expected by Sunday afternoon or evening, followed
by a cold front Sunday Night or Monday.  This next system should
have less cold air aloft when compared to the mid and late week
system, but it should still have enough moisture and dynamics for
the likelihood of showers Sunday night and Monday, with a chance of
(lake effect rain) showers continuing into Tuesday on a NW flow.

With the warm air advection, Sunday looks like it will be the warmer
of the weekdays, with highs mostly in the upper 60s, dropping 5-10F
early next week as cold air advection moves in.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A deck of lower end VFR clouds east of Lake Ontario will clear from
west to east through the rest of the night. Some patchy fog will
bring local IFR east and southeast of Lake Ontario overnight.
Otherwise VFR will prevail with cirrus level convective debris
clouds across the western Southern Tier.

Wednesday will be mainly dry with VFR prevailing through about 18Z.
From mid afternoon through early to mid evening a pre-frontal trough
will cross the eastern Great Lakes and combine with increasing
moisture and instability to produce one or several broken bands of
thunderstorms. The majority of the convection will be from 19Z Wed
to 01Z Thu. Within that window of time, expect the total duration of
thunder at any one location to be 1-2 hours, coming in 1 or 2 rounds
of convection.

The pre-frontal trough will move east of the area this evening,
followed the the cold front moving from northwest to southeast
overnight. The cold front will likely bring another round of showers
and possibly a few widely scattered thunderstorms. CIGS will lower
behind the cold front, with areas of low end VFR/MVFR for lower
elevations and lower end MVFR/spotty IFR for higher terrain
overnight. This second round will then end from northwest to
southeast by daybreak Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday...VFR/MVFR. Lake effect showers southeast of the
lakes.
Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR.
Sunday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate southwesterlies on Lake Erie and light and variable winds
on Lake Ontario will both become southerly later tonight.

While moderate southerlies will largely persist on Lake Ontario on
Wednesday...winds on Lake Erie will veer to the southwest and
freshen ahead of a cold front. Thunderstorms will likely develop
during the afternoon...and there is an elevated risk into the
evening hours that these storms will contain wind gusts in excess of
35 knots. Mariners should pay close attention to the sky conditions
and be wary of any statements or warnings that are issued.

Showers and thunderstorms Wednesday evening will then taper off as
scattered showers overnight...while winds in the wake in the wake of
the aforementioned cold front will become westerly and increase to
between 20 and 30 knots. Small craft advisories will be likely be
needed on Lake Ontario and possibly on Lake Erie at that time.

Fresh to strong northwesterlies can be expected throughout the Lower
Great Lakes region on Thursday when high end small craft advisories
can be expected.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Apffel/RSH
NEAR TERM...Apffel/Hitchcock/RSH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...Zaff
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...RSH
Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 20, 2:12 PM EDT, 14 hours before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
212 PM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-211815-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
212 PM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western and north central New
York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected along a strong cold
front Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. A few of these storms
may be severe with isolated damaging wind gusts possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-211815-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
212 PM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected along a strong cold
front Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. A few of these storms
may be severe with isolated strong wind gusts possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-LOZ030-SLZ022-024-211815-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
212 PM EDT Tue Sep 20 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Ontario and Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected along a strong cold
front Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. A few of these storms
may be severe with isolated strong wind gusts possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Apffel

Nearby

Small Craft Advisories in New York, 2022Every small craft advisory in 2022

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.