Small Craft Advisory 52, NWS Buffalo, NY

905 
WHUS71 KBUF 210940
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
540 AM EDT Thu Apr 21 2022

LEZ040-041-211745-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0052.000000T0000Z-220422T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
540 AM EDT Thu Apr 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-211745-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0052.220421T1200Z-220421T2100Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
540 AM EDT Thu Apr 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots expected.

* WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-211745-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0052.220421T1200Z-220422T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
540 AM EDT Thu Apr 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-211745-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0052.000000T0000Z-220422T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
540 AM EDT Thu Apr 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 20 knots.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-211745-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0052.000000T0000Z-220422T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
540 AM EDT Thu Apr 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

096 
WHUS71 KBUF 211137
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
737 AM EDT Thu Apr 21 2022

LEZ040-041-211945-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0052.000000T0000Z-220422T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
737 AM EDT Thu Apr 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-211945-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0052.220421T1200Z-220421T2100Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
737 AM EDT Thu Apr 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots expected.

* WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-211945-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0052.220421T1200Z-220422T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
737 AM EDT Thu Apr 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-211945-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0052.000000T0000Z-220422T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
737 AM EDT Thu Apr 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 20 knots.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-211945-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0052.000000T0000Z-220422T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
737 AM EDT Thu Apr 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

927 
WHUS71 KBUF 211747
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
147 PM EDT Thu Apr 21 2022

LEZ040-041-220000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0052.000000T0000Z-220422T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
147 PM EDT Thu Apr 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-212100-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0052.000000T0000Z-220421T2100Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
147 PM EDT Thu Apr 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots.

* WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-220000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0052.000000T0000Z-220422T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
147 PM EDT Thu Apr 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-220000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0052.000000T0000Z-220422T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
147 PM EDT Thu Apr 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-220000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0052.000000T0000Z-220422T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
147 PM EDT Thu Apr 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

JLA

657 
WHUS71 KBUF 212018
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
418 PM EDT Thu Apr 21 2022

LEZ020-220000-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0052.000000T0000Z-220422T0000Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
418 PM EDT Thu Apr 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots.

* WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-220000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0052.000000T0000Z-220422T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
418 PM EDT Thu Apr 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-220000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0052.000000T0000Z-220422T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
418 PM EDT Thu Apr 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-220000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0052.000000T0000Z-220422T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
418 PM EDT Thu Apr 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-220000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0052.000000T0000Z-220422T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
418 PM EDT Thu Apr 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

176 
WHUS71 KBUF 220001
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
801 PM EDT Thu Apr 21 2022

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-220115-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SC.Y.0052.000000T0000Z-220422T0000Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
801 PM EDT Thu Apr 21 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Winds and waves will continue to subside overnight.

$$

Hitchcock

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
953 PM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure will drift east into New England then off the
coast, but will keep dry weather intact through at least late
tonight with a gradual increase in cloud cover. A passing frontal
system will then produce some rain showers on Thursday before dry
and pleasant weather returns on Friday to end the work week. While
there could be some showers around for the start the weekend
associated with a warm front pushing through the region, the
boundary will bring notably warmer temperatures with a good chunk of
the area soaring well into 70s on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Main points through the next 24 hours or so will be rising temps
tonight with lows occurring across the west just before midnight and
during the early overnight hours across the eastern half of the
area. Becoming breezy late tonight near Lake Erie, then expanding
across much of the area on Thursday. Mainly light rain showers
moving from west to east across western and northcentral NY on
Thursday.

IR satellite loop showing thicker mid and upper level cloud decks
over the central and upper Lakes continuing to approach from the
west in advance of the next frontal system that will impact the
region on Thursday.

Otherwise, high pressure ridge nosed in from Mid Atlantic will slide
east through New England to the coast overnight, however it will
keep conditions dry through at least late tonight. Temps across
western NY may drop a few degrees by this evening before rising from
around midnight on as warm advection regime takes hold owed to a
developing return flow on the west side of the ridge and ahead of
the next low pressure and frontal system approaching the area.
Expect lows across western NY to bottom out in the upper 30s to
lower 40s late this evening, with readings then rising through the
40s overnight. Readings will also eventually begin to rise across
the eastern half of the area as well, just later on in the
overnight. Fresh snow cover and just some high thin clouds will
allow temps to drop down into the 20s rather quickly over the higher
terrain east of Lake Ontario, before temps begin slowly rising here
as well during the latter portion of the overnight. Increasing low-
level jet ahead of the front will set up gusty downslope winds
toward the Lake Erie shore in the lee of the Chautauqua Ridge, maybe
reaching 40-45 mph after later tonight into Thursday morning at
favored locations such as Dunkirk and Fredonia.

Good agreement that a period of mainly light rain showers is on the
way for Thursday as a mid level trough crosses the upper Great
Lakes. Coupled jet/diffluence aloft with moisture advection will
push a swath of showers across the region from west to east ahead of
a low-level trough. The steadier showers will impact western NY
during the first half of the day, before moving into the eastern
half of the area during the afternoon. Most areas will see 0.25
inches or less, though due to southerly upslope flow, the
southwestern slopes of the Tug Hill will possibly receive over 0.50
inch. Despite the rain and clouds, warm advection will boost temps
into the mid to upper 50s across a good chunk of the area, with
temps across the North Country topping out in the upper 40s to lower
50s. Gusty winds confined to near Lake Erie will expand across the
area on Thursday with low level jet overhead. Expect WSW gusts of 30-
40 mph, strongest over western NY with areas northeast of Lake Erie
possibly gusting near 45 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Showers will continue into the first half of the night Thursday
night behind a passing cold front and with an upper level trough
over the region. As the trough departs the region, and upper level
ridging increases, showers across the area will shift east, and
dissipate.

Dry weather is expected for Friday with the increased ridging over
the region, and an area of elongated high pressure stretching from
Canada south along the East Coast. Temperatures on Friday will be in
the mid 50s to low 60s for most areas, except for a few upper 40s
for the Tug Hill.

A warm front will extend east to the Ohio Valley from a large area
of low pressure over the Northern Plains. As the warm front tracks
northeast toward the WNY area, shower potential will increase for
the area through the night on Friday. The warm front will continue
to track slowly northeast across the forecast area on Saturday. This
will keep the potential for showers across the Western and North
Central NY areas into the day Saturday. There is still some guidance
spread with timing for the frontal passage and shower potential, but
the best chance currently looks like from daybreak across WNY to the
early evening for the North Country. Warm air advection on Saturday
will bring 850H temps to around +11C by sunset on Saturday evening
for WNY. Temperatures Friday night will be in the upper 30s to low
40s for most areas south of Lake Ontario where the warm front will
cross first, and in the low to mid 30s for the North Country.
Temperatures on Saturday will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s south
of Lake Ontario and in the low to upper 50s for the North Country.

Saturday night, showers will linger over the North Country for the
first half of the night, before the warm front continues to track
northeast and weakens. The ridge that was building over the region
on Friday will continue to build on Saturday night with the ridge
axis moving over the WNY area Sunday morning. Dry weather for the
rest of the area is expected Saturday night. Low temperatures on
Saturday night will be in the mid 40s to low 50s south of Lake
Ontario, and near 40 to low 40s for the North Country.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
By Sunday morning, a warm front will lie north of New York State
placing the region beneath the warm sector of the deepening cyclone
to the northwest of the area. Plenty of warm air advection along
with clearing skies (especially across the southern portions of the
state) will support a warm day Sunday with highs climbing into the
mid to upper 60s across the areas east of Lake Ontario and a range
of 70s across Western New York and the Genesee Valley with some
locations reading near 80.

As the low pressure system becomes vertically stacked over
Manitoba/Ontario Canada, the system will weaken with the overall
northeastward progression. Its trailing cold front will then slide
across the Great Lakes towards the area late Sunday night, reaching
the far western border late Monday morning/early Monday afternoon.
Diurnal heating prior to the front's arrival may produce enough
instability to support some embedded thunderstorms within the
eastward progressing line of showers. This being said, the best
chances for thunder will lie across the Genesee Valley.

A shortwave trough will round the base of the longwave trough Monday
night and Tuesday supplying additional energy such that a new low
forms on the front lying southward across the Eastern Seaboard. This
would then support continued chances for rain showers Tuesday and
Wednesday, with the best chances for showers lying across the
southeastern portions of the region as the newly formed low rides
northeast along the Atlantic coastline. Otherwise, the shortwave
will push the overall trough pattern eastward and support another
bout of cold air to filter in across the region for the end of April
and start of May , where temperatures will turn to near or below
normal yet again.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure sliding through New England should keep dry weather
and widespread VFR conditions intact across the region through at
least late tonight with just thickening and lowering of the mid and
upper level decks.

A frontal boundary will bring a period of showers that will track
from west to east across the region on Thursday. CIGS will steadily
lower to MVFR/IFR by late morning in the west, and by early
afternoon east of Lake Ontario. Expect IFR CIGS to remain confined
mainly to the higher terrain. CIGS should start to lift/scatter out
across western NY and the Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes region toward
the late afternoon, with restrictions continuing east of Lake
Ontario into at least the first part of the evening.

There will be the risk for some low level wind shear later tonight
into the first part of Thursday morning across the terminals south
of Lake Ontario as a 45-50kt low level jet moves across the region.
Winds will then gust to 25-35 kts at all TAF sites on Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday night...VFR.
Friday through Sunday...Mainly VFR...although there will be the chance
for some rain showers on Saturday.
Monday...MVFR to VFR. Showers likely. A chance of thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Gentle southeasterlies on the lakes late this evening will freshen
overnight. This will especially be the case on Lake Erie where fresh
to strong southerlies will be in place by daybreak. Given the
offshore flow, waves overnight will remain below SCA criteria.

On Thursday, fresh south to southwest winds will produce choppy
conditions throughout the Lower Great Lakes. Small Craft Advisories
will likely be needed for Lake Erie and for the northeast corner of
Lake Ontario (Mexico Bay to St Lawrence River).

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JM/RSH
NEAR TERM...JLA/JM
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JLA/JM/RSH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
244 PM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022

NYZ019-085-211845-
Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
244 PM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Southerly winds may gust over 40 mph late tonight near the Lake Erie
shoreline.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Southwest winds may gust over 40 mph on Thursday near the Lake Erie
shoreline.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001>003-010>012-211845-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-
244 PM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Southwest winds may gust over 40 mph on Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004>008-013-014-020-021-211845-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Livingston-Ontario-
Cattaraugus-Allegany-
244 PM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-211845-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
244 PM EDT Wed Apr 20 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

JLA