Small Craft Advisory 36, NWS Buffalo, NY

031 
WHUS71 KBUF 182258
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
658 PM EDT Fri Mar 18 2022

LOZ030-042-190900-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0036.220319T0000Z-220319T1500Z/
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
658 PM EDT Fri Mar 18 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach and Lower Niagara River.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-190900-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0036.220319T0000Z-220319T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
658 PM EDT Fri Mar 18 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Sodus Bay.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

878 
WHUS71 KBUF 190807
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
407 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022

LOZ030-190915-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-220319T1500Z/
Lower Niagara River-
407 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds have diminished.

$$

LOZ043-190915-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-220319T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
407 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds and waves have diminished.

$$

LEZ040-041-191615-
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0037.220319T1800Z-220320T1500Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
407 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
11 AM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...From 2 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-191615-
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0037.220319T1800Z-220320T0900Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
407 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
5 AM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots expected.

* WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...From 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-191615-
/O.NEW.KBUF.SC.Y.0037.220320T0300Z-220320T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
407 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM
EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 6 to 9 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-191615-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-220320T1500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
407 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest this
  afternoon and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

982 
WHUS71 KBUF 191042
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
642 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022

LOZ042-191845-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-220320T1500Z/
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0037.220319T2200Z-220320T1500Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
642 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM
EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-191845-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0037.220320T0300Z-220321T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
642 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM
EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 6 to 9 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-191845-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0037.220320T0300Z-220321T0000Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
642 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
8 PM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 6 to 9 feet 
  expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-191845-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0037.220319T1800Z-220320T1500Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
642 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...From 2 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-191845-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0037.220319T1800Z-220320T0900Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
642 AM EDT Sat Mar 19 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots expected.

* WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...From 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
120 PM EDT Fri Mar 18 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front across Lake Ontario will push south across our area
this afternoon, before stalling out north of the NY/PA line. Other
than a few showers early east of Lake Ontario, dry weather will
continue today. This feature will bring some additional cloud cover
through midday, before thicker clouds overspread the region this
afternoon in advance of the next storm system. Unsettled weather
then moves in for tonight into the weekend with rain at times
through Saturday night, and some lingering rain showers with higher
elevation wet snow showers lasting into Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Sfc obs indicate weak cold front is slowly pushing south along the
south shore of Lake Ontario. A weak wave along the boundary will
produce a few showers east of Lake Ontario through early afternoon.
Once that wave passes by, expect the front to become enhanced by the
lake breeze and surge southward across western and central NY before
stalling out north of the NY/PA line late this afternoon. This
will result in a bit of extra cloud cover but generally dry
weather will prevail resulting in one last rain free day. The
main impact of the boundary will be the considerable contrast in
temperatures from north to south across the forecast area,
especially into the afternoon. Expect highs in the upper 60s to
near 70 toward the Pennsylvania border, with readings topping
out in the lower to mid 50s near Lake Ontario shore and toward
the Saint Lawrence Valley.

Nice stretch of dry weather will come to an end tonight as an
expansive area of low pressure moves from the mid Mississippi Valley
this afternoon, northeastward into southern Michigan by Saturday
morning. A fairly expansive precipitation shield will allow rain to
move into western NY by later this evening, then northeastward into
areas east of the Genesee Valley during the second half of the
night. This first slug of rain will be associated with the leading
edge of a strong low level jet producing rainfall amounts generally
in the one quarter to one third of an inch range, with slightly
higher amounts possible over northwestern portions of the forecast
area. Pocket of steeper mid-level lapse rates on nose of the H85
supported adding a slight chance of thunder where we had our
categorical pops going. Expect a mild night with lows mainly in the
mid 40s to low 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Although there will be periodic rain showers, Saturday does not
appear to be a washout. In fact, with the surface low now expected
to track across the lakes, Western New York will be in the warm
sector with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. This is about 20
degrees above normal. The surface low, associated shortwave, and
frontal boundary will bring showers which will be more prevalent
during the afternoon hours at most locations. Daytime heating and
some breaks of sunshine will allow for some instability to develop,
which will bring a risk for a few thunderstorms. The best chance for
these will be from the Genesee River valley east where the later
timing of the shortwave and front will allow for more instability to
develop. Forecast wind profiles show limited shear with 850mb winds
about 35 kts. Based on this SPC has introduced a marginal risk for
severe weather across central New York which clips our forecast
area. The main threat would be gusty winds, but hail is also
possible.

Cooler air will build in behind the surface low Saturday night, with
850mb temperatures dropping to around -4c by daybreak Sunday. There
will be some lingering showers Saturday night, which may mix with
snow across higher terrain late in the night.

A few rain or snow showers will linger into Sunday, along a mid-
level trough axis behind the surface low which will be exiting
across northern New England. Sunday will be a cooler and blustery
day with highs in the 40s. An elongated high pressure ridge will
extend between high pressure centered over central Canada and the
southeastern states. This will bring fair weather for Sunday night,
with lows mainly in the lower 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Tuesday an upper level trough will pull away from our region, with
moisture displaced to the east, and leaving our region dry.

A narrow ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will
advance across our region Tuesday Night and into Wednesday. This
should delay precipitation from the next system until Wednesday
midday.

There is still a lot of model uncertainty this period, with the
evolution of the upper level low over the lower Ohio Valley and how
fast it is captured with the main westerlies. Will follow closely to
the NBM Wednesday Night through Friday...with the highest PoPs
Wednesday Night and into Thursday on the initial wave of moisture
not tied to the upper level low.

It will be cold enough at the onset of precipitation that some wet
snowflakes could mix in Wednesday - Wednesday Night, especially
across higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Widespread VFR conditions expected through early this evening. Weak
cold front will press south into western and central NY today before
stalling out north of the NY/PA line, however other than a stray
shower across the North Country through midday, dry weather will
continue through the day with just some extra clouds owed to the
boundary. Mid and upper level cloud decks will be on the increase as
we progress through the second half of the day in advance of an area
of low pressure poised to start impacting our area tonight.

Widespread rain with a slight chance of thunder and associated
MVFR/isolated IFR conditions will move into the area by later this
evening lasting through the overnight as a large area of low
pressure approaches from the southwest.

Outlook...

Saturday...IFR to MVFR. Rain showers.
Sunday...MVFR/IFR in rain/snow showers, improving to VFR in the
afternoon.
Monday...Mainly VFR.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Light breezes and negligible wave action can be expected through mid
afternoon, before winds freshen out of the northeast/east-northeast
late today into tonight possibly supporting a brief period of SCA
conditions on Lake Ontario through daybreak on Saturday.

For this weekend, a storm system located over northern Indiana/lower
Michigan tonight will move just northwest of the lower Great Lakes
region on Saturday bringing much more unsettled weather. Winds will
relax some on Saturday before strengthening
southwesterlies/westerlies move over the Lakes Saturday night and
Sunday supporting the chance for a more prolonged period of SCA
conditons.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
High flows expected in the Black River Basin this weekend. Forecast
points are likely to reach action stage, but are unlikely to
exceed flood stage.

Low pressure passing by just to the north is expected to bring
between a half inch and an inch of rain to the Black River Basin
tonight through Saturday night. Meanwhile high temperatures
today and Saturday will rise well into the 50s which will melt
snow resulting in run-off. Deep snow pack is limited to higher
terrain which makes up roughly half of the basin. This will
limit run-off rates. MMEFS ensembles show a high probability
that forecast points will reach action stage, but that they are
unlikely to exceed flood stage given the current expected QPF.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JLA/JM
SHORT TERM...Apffel
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JLA/JM
HYDROLOGY...Apffel

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
521 AM EDT Fri Mar 18 2022

NYZ001>003-010>012-019-020-085-190930-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Chautauqua-
Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
521 AM EDT Fri Mar 18 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006>008-190930-
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
521 AM EDT Fri Mar 18 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The combination of a half inch to an inch of rainfall and run-off
from snow melt will cause levels on the Black River and its
tributaries to rise Saturday and Sunday. Crests will most likely be
around action stage, but there's a small risk for flooding if
rainfall amounts are higher than anticipated.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004-005-013-014-021-190930-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-
521 AM EDT Fri Mar 18 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There's a slight risk that a few thunderstorms will produce strong
gusty winds and hail on Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-190930-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
521 AM EDT Fri Mar 18 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

SLZ022-024-190930-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
521 AM EDT Fri Mar 18 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Apffel