River Flood Warning 18, NWS Buffalo, NY

883 
WGUS81 KBUF 240245
FLSBUF

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
945 PM EST Wed Feb 23 2022

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in New 
York...

  Genesee River At Avon affecting Livingston and Monroe Counties.

  Oatka Creek At Garbutt affecting Monroe and Genesee Counties.

  Black Creek At Churchville affecting Monroe and Genesee Counties.

  Tonawanda Creek At Rapids affecting Erie and Niagara Counties.

...Observed flooding changed from Minor to Moderate severity and 
increased in duration for the following rivers in New York...

  Tonawanda Creek At Batavia affecting Wyoming, Erie, Niagara and 
  Genesee Counties.

.Rain and snowmelt led to rising levels on creeks and rivers. Flows 
in rivers will increase quickly and reach critical levels.

For the Oatka Creek...including Garbutt...Minor flooding is forecast.
For the Black Creek...including Churchville...Minor flooding is 
forecast.
For the Tonawanda Creek...including Batavia...Moderate flooding is 
forecast.
For the Tonawanda Creek...including Rapids...Minor flooding is 
forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued late tonight at 515 AM EST.

&&


NYC037-055-241445-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-220225T0300Z/
/GRBN6.1.RS.220223T2307Z.220224T0600Z.220224T2100Z.UU/
945 PM EST Wed Feb 23 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TOMORROW EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Oatka Creek At Garbutt.

* WHEN...Until late tomorrow evening.

* IMPACTS...At 6.0 feet, Flood stage, general flooding of 
  agricultural land begins, some basement flooding in Scottsville 
  and Garbutt.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:00 PM EST Wednesday the stage was 6.1 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 9:00 PM EST Wednesday was 6.1 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 6.2
    feet just after midnight tonight. It will then fall below
    flood stage tomorrow afternoon.
  - Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    6.2 feet on 09/09/2004.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4304 7771 4299 7771 4299 7794 4297 7798
      4297 7802 4302 7798


$$

NYC037-055-241445-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0018.220224T0245Z-220225T0600Z/
/CHRN6.1.RS.220224T0231Z.220224T1200Z.220225T0000Z.NO/
945 PM EST Wed Feb 23 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING TO EARLY FRIDAY 
MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Black Creek At Churchville.

* WHEN...From this evening to early Friday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 6.0 feet, Flood stage, more widespread agricultural 
  land flooding, some backyard and basement flooding Churchville to 
  Chili but minimal damages.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:00 PM EST Wednesday the stage was 6.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    late this evening to a crest of 6.3 feet tomorrow morning. It
    will then fall below flood stage tomorrow evening.
  - Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    6.4 feet on 05/07/2017.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4306 7770 4306 7805 4313 7805 4313 7791
      4312 7765


$$

NYC029-037-063-121-241445-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0017.000000T0000Z-220224T1724Z/
/BTVN6.2.RS.220223T2026Z.220224T0130Z.220224T1124Z.UU/
945 PM EST Wed Feb 23 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is 
  forecast.

* WHERE...Tonawanda Creek At Batavia.

* WHEN...Until early tomorrow afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 10.0 feet, Moderate flood, flooding along West Main 
  Street and South Main Street in Batavia and along the creek from 
  Batavia to East Pembroke, extending to the Tonawanda Indian 
  Reservation. Flooding will mainly impact roads, with some 
  residential and commerical flooding possible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:00 PM EST Wednesday the stage was 10.0 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 9:00 PM EST Wednesday was 10.1 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    tomorrow morning and continue falling to 3.5 feet Saturday
    evening.
  - Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    10.1 feet on 01/13/2018.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4299 7831 4305 7863 4315 7864 4315 7810
      4293 7817 4293 7832


$$

NYC051-055-241015-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-220224T1008Z/
/AVON6.1.RS.220223T1415Z.220223T2216Z.220224T0408Z.NO/
945 PM EST Wed Feb 23 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Genesee River At Avon.

* WHEN...Until late tonight.

* IMPACTS...At 33.0 feet, Flood stage, river overflows at many areas 
  from Geneseo to Scottsville, but mainly in agricultural lands with 
  little damage to structures.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:00 PM EST Wednesday the stage was 33.2 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 9:00 PM EST Wednesday was 33.4 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    overnight tonight and continue falling to 22.5 feet Saturday
    evening.
  - Flood stage is 33.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    33.3 feet on 12/31/1990.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4290 7787 4306 7776 4306 7764 4292 7772
      4279 7780 4278 7789


$$

NYC029-063-241445-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0019.220225T1648Z-220227T0120Z/
/RAPN6.1.RS.220225T1648Z.220226T0600Z.220226T1920Z.NO/
945 PM EST Wed Feb 23 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY 
EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Tonawanda Creek At Rapids.

* WHEN...From Friday morning to Saturday evening.

* IMPACTS...At 12.0 feet, Flood stage, lowland flooding of farm 
  areas along Tonawanda Creek between Rapids and the Tonawanda 
  Indian Reservation. Flooding may impact Fletcher, Burdick, Kirby, 
  and Tonawanda Creek Roads.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:00 PM EST Wednesday the stage was 11.4 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    late Friday morning to a crest of 13.2 feet early Saturday
    morning. It will then fall below flood stage early Saturday
    afternoon.
  - Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    13.2 feet on 02/12/1965.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4305 7863 4299 7889 4306 7889 4315 7863
      4315 7847 4302 7846


$$

EAJ

886 
WGUS81 KBUF 241109
FLSBUF

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
609 AM EST Thu Feb 24 2022

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in New 
York...

  Oatka Creek At Garbutt affecting Monroe and Genesee Counties.

  Black Creek At Churchville affecting Monroe and Genesee Counties.

.Rain and snowmelt led to rising levels on creeks and rivers. Flows 
in rivers will increase quickly and reach critical levels.

For the Oatka Creek...including Garbutt...Minor flooding is forecast.
For the Black Creek...including Churchville...Minor flooding is 
forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued this evening at 615 PM EST.

&&


NYC037-055-242315-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-220225T0200Z/
/GRBN6.1.RS.220223T2307Z.220224T1000Z.220224T2100Z.UU/
609 AM EST Thu Feb 24 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Oatka Creek At Garbutt.

* WHEN...Until late this evening.

* IMPACTS...At 6.0 feet, Flood stage, general flooding of 
  agricultural land begins, some basement flooding in Scottsville 
  and Garbutt.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 5:00 AM EST Thursday the stage was 6.2 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 5:00 AM EST Thursday was 6.2 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    late this afternoon and continue falling to 4.3 feet early
    Sunday morning.
  - Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    6.2 feet on 09/09/2004.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4304 7771 4299 7771 4299 7794 4297 7798
      4297 7802 4302 7798


$$

NYC037-055-242315-
/O.CON.KBUF.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-220225T0600Z/
/CHRN6.1.RS.220224T0231Z.220224T1000Z.220225T0000Z.NO/
609 AM EST Thu Feb 24 2022

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT 
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Black Creek At Churchville.

* WHEN...Until just after midnight tonight.

* IMPACTS...At 7.0 feet, Moderate flood, widespread agricultural 
  flooding along entire length of creek. Some residential flooding 
  begins Churchville to Chili area. Possible road closures.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 5:00 AM EST Thursday the stage was 6.6 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 5:00 AM EST Thursday was 6.6 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    this evening and continue falling to 3.7 feet early Sunday
    morning.
  - Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    6.7 feet on 01/22/1995.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4306 7770 4306 7805 4313 7805 4313 7791
      4312 7765


$$

TMA

977 
WGUS81 KBUF 242311
FLSBUF

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
611 PM EST Thu Feb 24 2022

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in New 
York...

  Oatka Creek At Garbutt affecting Monroe and Genesee Counties.

  Black Creek At Churchville affecting Monroe and Genesee Counties.

.Rain and snowmelt led to rising levels on creeks and rivers. Flows 
in rivers will increase and reach critical levels.

For the Oatka Creek...including Garbutt...Minor flooding is forecast.
For the Black Creek...including Churchville...Minor flooding is 
forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued Friday morning at 615 AM EST.

&&


NYC037-055-251115-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-220225T1200Z/
/GRBN6.1.RS.220223T2307Z.220224T2000Z.220225T0600Z.UU/
611 PM EST Thu Feb 24 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Oatka Creek At Garbutt.

* WHEN...Until tomorrow morning.

* IMPACTS...At 6.0 feet, Flood stage, general flooding of 
  agricultural land begins, some basement flooding in Scottsville 
  and Garbutt.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 5:00 PM EST Thursday the stage was 6.2 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 5:00 PM EST Thursday was 6.4 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    just after midnight tonight and continue falling to 4.2 feet
    Sunday morning.
  - Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    6.2 feet on 09/09/2004.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4304 7771 4299 7771 4299 7794 4297 7798
      4297 7802 4302 7798


$$

NYC037-055-251115-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-220225T2000Z/
/CHRN6.1.RS.220224T0231Z.220224T1445Z.220225T1400Z.NO/
611 PM EST Thu Feb 24 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Black Creek At Churchville.

* WHEN...Until tomorrow afternoon.

* IMPACTS...At 6.0 feet, Flood stage, more widespread agricultural 
  land flooding, some backyard and basement flooding Churchville to 
  Chili but minimal damages.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 5:00 PM EST Thursday the stage was 6.7 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 5:00 PM EST Thursday was 6.9 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    late tomorrow morning.
  - Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    6.7 feet on 01/20/1996.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4306 7770 4306 7805 4313 7805 4313 7791
      4312 7765


$$

JLA

493 
WGUS81 KBUF 250354
FLSBUF

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1054 PM EST Thu Feb 24 2022

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in New 
York...

  Black Creek At Churchville affecting Monroe and Genesee Counties.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in New 
York...

  Oatka Creek At Garbutt affecting Monroe and Genesee Counties.

.Rain and snowmelt led to rising levels on creeks and rivers. Flows 
in rivers will increase and reach critical levels.

For the Oatka Creek...including Garbutt...Minor flooding is forecast.
For the Black Creek...including Churchville...Minor flooding is 
forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.

The next statement will be issued on Friday by 1 PM EST.

&&


NYC037-055-251015-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-220225T1014Z/
/GRBN6.N.RS.220223T2307Z.220224T2000Z.220225T0414Z.UU/
1054 PM EST Thu Feb 24 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Oatka Creek At Garbutt.

* WHEN...Until late tonight.

* IMPACTS...At 6.0 feet, Flood stage, general flooding of 
  agricultural land begins, some basement flooding in Scottsville 
  and Garbutt.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 5:00 PM EST Thursday the stage was 6.2 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 5:00 PM EST Thursday was 6.4 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    just after midnight tonight and continue falling to 4.2 feet
    Sunday morning.
  - Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    6.2 feet on 03/19/2003.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4304 7771 4299 7771 4299 7794 4297 7798
      4297 7802 4302 7798


$$

NYC037-055-251800-
/O.EXT.KBUF.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-220226T0200Z/
/CHRN6.1.RS.220224T0231Z.220224T1445Z.220225T2000Z.NO/
1054 PM EST Thu Feb 24 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TOMORROW EVENING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Black Creek At Churchville.

* WHEN...Until late tomorrow evening.

* IMPACTS...At 6.0 feet, Flood stage, more widespread agricultural 
  land flooding, some backyard and basement flooding Churchville to 
  Chili but minimal damages.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 5:00 PM EST Thursday the stage was 6.7 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 5:00 PM EST Thursday was 6.9 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    late tomorrow morning and continue falling to 4.1 feet Sunday
    morning.
  - Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    6.6 feet on 03/22/1984.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4306 7770 4306 7805 4313 7805 4313 7791
      4312 7765


$$

JLA

104 
WGUS81 KBUF 251646
FLSBUF

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1146 AM EST Fri Feb 25 2022

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in New 
York...

  Black Creek At Churchville affecting Monroe and Genesee Counties.

NYC037-055-251800-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-220225T1646Z/
/CHRN6.1.RS.220224T0231Z.220224T1445Z.220225T2000Z.NO/
1146 AM EST Fri Feb 25 2022

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Black Creek At Churchville.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 11:00 AM EST Friday the stage was 5.9 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 4.1 feet Sunday
    morning.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 4306 7770 4306 7805 4313 7805 4313 7791
      4312 7765


$$

DRT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
245 PM EST Wed Feb 23 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Colder air will continue to pour into the region prompting some
nuisance lake snows off Lake Ontario with minor accumulations through
tonight. After a mainly sunny but cold day on Thursday, our
attention will turn to a storm system that will pass to our
south Thursday night and Friday. All areas can expect at least
several inches of snow during that period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Strong cold air advection will continue through this evening, and
this will establish enough instability over the open waters of Lake
Ontario to allow for some lake snows over the Eastern Lake Ontario
region. Given the time of year (diurnal instability interfering with
band organization) expecting a total of only 1 to 3 inches east
of Lake Ontario and across portions of Oswego county. Otherwise,
gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph this afternoon with temperatures
dropping to the mid 20s by sunset.

Expansive high pressure centered over the northern plains during the
evening will build to the east across the Upper Great Lakes to the
Ottawa valley overnight. The ensuing lowering of the subsidence
inversion will weaken any organized lake snows off Lake Ontario
during the evening with a veering steering flow to 020-030 directing
disorganized snow showers southwards across a good chunk of western
New York. Again...accums will be insignificant...ranging from a
coating in most areas to an inch or so from Monroe co to Cayuga co.
Temps will tumble into the teens F for the western counties and will
end up in the single digits for the North Country.

High pressure centered to our north on Thursday will provide us with
a cold day...although a strengthen late Feb sun should help to
minimize the chill. Afternoon temps on Thursday will generally range
from the lower 20s east of Lake Ontario to the upper 20s to around
30 across western New York.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Thursday Night surface high pressure will be near Quebec, while a
sharp shortwave deepens a surface low over the mid Mississippi
Valley. The track of the surface low is across PA and towards the
southern Genesee Valley. This will bring a warm layer aloft very
close to our region, such that chances for a mixed event remains
possible across the inland Southern Tier and far southern Genesee
Valley late Thursday Night and into Friday.

A look at deterministic models, the 12Z NAM and 3 km NAM bring the
surface low farther northward than the 12Z GFS, ECMWF and Canadian.
If the NAM solution were to verify we would see a mix as far north
as the southern Lake Ontario shoreline. While with little support
from other 12Z models, this trend farther northward with the warm
layer have been seen times before. However the top 2 analogs from
CIPS were events (January 28th 2009 and February 5th 2014) that
featured snow totals that indeed did breech into warning criteria
across much of our forecast area. This said there is still too much
uncertainty to change headlines with this forecast package update.

The dynamics of this storm system are coming together to produce a
period of snow (with a mix towards the south). Initial snow
formation will be upon isentropic upglide motion, with a 40 to 50
knot LLJ to our south enhancing the overall lift. Aloft several jet
streaks at 300 hPa will bring pockets of deeper lift, along with a
tightening 700-850 hPa circulation that will pass over our region.
Snow will reach our Southern Tier Thursday evening and quickly
spread towards the Lake Ontario region just past midnight.

The surface low will be tracking towards western PA and possibly
into WNY by early Friday morning. This would send a warm nose aloft
northward changing the lower atmosphere to a profile that would
support sleet and eventually freezing rain. Again, the NAM is the
farthest northward with this warm layer...one that would bring a mix
up to the southern Lake Ontario shoreline. For now we will keep any
mix to our southern two rows of counties.

A secondary surface low will form off the Delmarva Peninsula early
Friday morning and rapidly deepen as it tracks northward up the
coastline. Meanwhile the initial primary low will begin to weaken
before combining with the secondary low to our east. A deformation
band of snow behind the primary low, that along with the passing of
the shortwave aloft will then be the dynamical forcing later in the
day Friday, bringing additional accumulation through the morning and
afternoon hours. This could also be the period with highest snowfall
rates...ones that could near an inch per hour.

As the cold air aloft quickly deepens behind this storm system, and
ambient moisture lingers a period of lake enhanced snow will likely
hang on along the southern shoreline of Lake Ontario as well as
southeast of Lake Erie through the afternoon hours.

Overall will have snow amounts through Friday within the advisory
range for this system south of Lake Ontario, with possible higher
amounts east of Lake Ontario where snow ratios should be higher with
the surface high to the north and a period of higher snowfall rates
through the afternoon hours under the deformation band.

Sleet and any freezing rain to the south will hold snow amounts down
across the Southern Tier.

Behind this system temperatures at 850 hPa will drop down to the mid
negative teens Celsius. This along with a northwest wind will
develop lake effect snow initially south of the Lakes Friday
afternoon, and then southeast of the Lakes Friday Night. Greater
amounts will likely be off Lake Ontario, where the waters are still
open, and where the northwest winds will have a longer residence
time over the Lake waters. Winds, backing as a surface high ridges
to our region will steer a weakening band of snow to areas east of
Lake Ontario Saturday.

This surface high will begin to clear the skies Friday Night with
lighter winds allowing for overnight lows to drop back into the
lower teens across the Lake Plain...to a few spots around zero or
lower well inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Cold front approaching the region from the north Saturday night into
Sunday will promote a generally westerly flow across the area.
Synoptic scale moisture picks up with the approach of the boundary
which will support an increasing risk for lake response snow sowers
east of the lake. Response should be the greatest east of Lake
Ontario. NBM probabilities during this time period look much too
low, so boosted accordingly. Will need to monitor this time period
for a "sneaky" lake event east of Lake Ontario where several inches
of accumulation will certainly be possible.

The cold front should move across the region by Sunday night with a
better coverage of snow, falling temperatures and continued lake
effect snow, although focusing more south and southeast of the lakes
within a northwest flow regime. Wind chill values Sunday night into
Monday morning likely below zero, especially east of Lake Ontario.

Though we will trend toward drier weather into the first part of
next week, temperatures look to stay below normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A mix of VFR/MVFR cigs this afternoon with some drier air allowing
for slightly higher cigs across the Niagara Frontier. Sharpening
inversion and diminishing winds will likely cause clouds to fill in
with mainly MVFR from Lake Ontario southward by this evening. These
lake enhanced clouds should maintain through much of the night
before gradually dissipating Thursday morning.

Otherwise, it will be windy this afternoon with gusts to 30 kts
at times. Lake effect snow will briefly impact KART/KJHW but this
should taper off and/or shift by 21Z as a shortwave passes by
to the north. Clearing skies with VFR flight conditions at KART
after 00Z this evening.

High pressure will ridge into the region with mainly VFR flight
conditions Thursday afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday Night through Friday...Mainly IFR. Snow, mixed with sleet
at some locations. Significant accumulations possible.

Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR with localized IFR in lake
effect snow showers east of the lakes.

&&

.MARINE...
High end small craft advisories will be in place throughout the
Lower Great lakes through late afternoon. Winds will drop off
abruptly this evening as expansive high pressure centered over
the northern plains builds east across the Upper Great Lakes to
the Ottawa valley. This will weaken the sfc pressure gradient
over the Lower Great lakes and allow winds and waves to subside
through the course of the night.

Gentle to moderate northeasterlies Thursday morning will freshen
late in the day and Thursday night. Low pressure approaching from
the Tennessee Valley will pass by to the south and likely support
another round of marine headlines Thursday night through Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall totaled between a half inch to an inch across western
New York with a half inch to an inch east of Lake Ontario. This
combined with snow melt from the mild air mass has led to another
round of significant run off in area tributaries.

Faster responding creeks (including the Lancaster, Gardenville,
Ebenezer, Gowanda, and Attica forecast points) have already
crested and will continue to drop through this evening.

With rainfall amounts coming in 'just' on the low side of the
forecast range, expect that most of the slower responding basins
can also handle the rain/snow melt. However there are multiple
forecast points which will come close to reaching flood stage.
We are closely monitoring the Allegheny River at Olean, and
Black Creek at Churchville, Tonawanda Creek at Batavia and
Rapids, and Oatka Creek at Garbutt. RFC Forecasts bring all
these points to near flood stage.

Otherwise there's a flood warning in effect for the Avon
forecast point on the Genesee River. No other forecast points on
the Genesee River are expected to reach flood.

Otherwise, there's minor flooding along Irondequoit Creek at
typically vulnerable locations. We also have gotten a report of
an ice jam flooding a parking lot along Sandy Creek in Jefferson
County. Flooding in urban areas is not expected.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ001>003-007-008-
     010>013-019>021-085.
     Winter Storm Watch from Thursday evening through Friday
     evening for NYZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
         LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
         LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for LOZ042-
         043-045.
         Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LOZ044.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Apffel
NEAR TERM...Apffel/RSH
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...Apffel
MARINE...Apffel
HYDROLOGY...Apffel

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
456 AM EST Wed Feb 23 2022

NYZ007-008-241000-
Jefferson-Lewis-
456 AM EST Wed Feb 23 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001>003-010>013-019>021-085-241000-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
456 AM EST Wed Feb 23 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is the potential for a winter storm from Thursday night
through Friday that may cause hazardous travel conditions. This
winter storm will have the potential to cause accumulating snow,
sleet, and freezing rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004-005-014-241000-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Ontario-
456 AM EST Wed Feb 23 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is the potential for a winter storm from Thursday evening
through Friday, that may cause hazardous travel conditions. This
winter storm will have the potential to cause accumulating snow,
sleet, and freezing rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-241000-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
456 AM EST Wed Feb 23 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006-241000-
Oswego-
456 AM EST Wed Feb 23 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

 Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1005 AM EST Wed Feb 23 2022

NYZ006>008-231800-
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
1005 AM EST Wed Feb 23 2022

...SLICK DRIVING CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...

Temperatures will gradually drop below freezing late this
morning. Many roads and walkways are still wet from recent rain
and snow melt. Untreated roadways and walkways may become slick
through early afternoon. Exercise caution when traveling today,
especially on bridges and overpasses, and across higher terrain
where it typically is colder.

Apffel