Alert archive / New York / Lake Effect Snow Warnings in 2022
Lake Effect Snow Warning 7, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this lake effect snow warning at Nov 29, 2022, 3:43 AM EST for Jefferson County, Lewis County, Oswego County, New York. It took effect at Nov 30, 2022, 8:00 PM EST. It was in force for 22 hr. 4 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 29, 2022, 3:43 AM EST (08:43 UTC)
- In effect from
- Nov 30, 2022, 8:00 PM EST
- Expired
- Dec 1, 2022, 6:15 PM EST
- In force
- 22 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
Counties Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Oswego County, NY
The radar
The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 18 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1, 5:00 AM EST | SNOW 3.5 | 1 Nw Constableville, NY | COCORAHS STATION NY-LW-3 CONSTABLEVILLE 1.2 NW. |
| Dec 1, 6:00 AM EST | SNOW 4 | 5 W Constableville, NY | CO-OP OBSERVER STATION HGHN6 HIGHMARKET 2W. |
| Dec 1, 7:00 AM EST | SNOW 3.5 | 1 Ne Lowville, NY | CO-OP OBSERVER STATION LOWN6 LOWVILLE. |
| Dec 1, 12:50 PM EST | SNOW 6 | Redfield, NY |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
The nearest sounding before it
Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 00:00Z, 8.7 hours before the alert went out and 244 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 668 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 25 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 42 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 41 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
077
WWUS41 KBUF 290843
WSWBUF
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
343 AM EST Tue Nov 29 2022
NYZ006>008-291645-
/O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0013.221201T0000Z-221201T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.W.0007.221201T0100Z-221202T0000Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
343 AM EST Tue Nov 29 2022
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM
EST THURSDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations
of 8 to 14 inches in the most persistent lake snows across the
Tug Hill Plateau, with 4 to 7 inches for surrounding lower
elevations. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph will produce
extensive blowing and drifting snow.
* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. Greatest accumulations
across the Tug Hill Plateau.
* WHEN...From 8 PM Wednesday to 7 PM EST Thursday.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult at times. Areas of
blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The
hazardous conditions will impact the morning commute on
Thursday.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
Experimental content below...do not use operationally
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4393 7515 4408 7515 4417 7534 4397 7575
4398 7584 4385 7606 4367 7602 4367 7575 4379 7563
4388 7544
TIME Y22M12D01T0100Z-Y22M12D01T0600Z
COORD...4398 7514 4401 7526 4392 7570 4394 7588
4388 7606 4376 7623 4348 7623 4346 7564 4355 7547
4360 7513
TIME Y22M12D01T0600Z-Y22M12D01T1200Z
COORD...4378 7512 4371 7550 4384 7569 4384 7611
4359 7625 4350 7647 4343 7595 4348 7581 4342 7550
4360 7513
TIME Y22M12D01T1200Z-Y22M12D01T1800Z
COORD...4360 7552 4364 7569 4365 7598 4360 7612
4349 7611 4341 7616 4339 7601 4345 7570 4342 7550
4352 7533
TIME Y22M12D01T1800Z-Y22M12D02T0000Z
$$
NYZ012-019-020-085-291645-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WW.Y.0026.221130T2100Z-221201T1800Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park,
and Springville
343 AM EST Tue Nov 29 2022
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM
EST THURSDAY...
* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4
to 7 inches in the most persistent lake snows across higher
terrain. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will produce extensive
blowing and drifting snow.
* WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie
counties. Greatest snow accumulations across the Boston Hills,
western Wyoming County, and the Chautauqua Ridge.
* WHEN...From 4 PM Wednesday to 1 PM EST Thursday.
* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions.
Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The
hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute Wednesday
and the morning commute Thursday.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
$$
Hitchcock12 follow-up statements
180
WWUS41 KBUF 291322
WSWBUF
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
822 AM EST Tue Nov 29 2022
NYZ006>008-292130-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0007.221201T0100Z-221202T0000Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
822 AM EST Tue Nov 29 2022
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY
TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow
accumulations of 8 to 14 inches in the most persistent lake
snows across the Tug Hill Plateau, with 4 to 7 inches for
surrounding lower elevations. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph
will produce extensive blowing and drifting snow.
* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. Greatest
accumulations across the Tug Hill Plateau.
* WHEN...From 8 PM Wednesday to 7 PM EST Thursday.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult at times. Areas of
blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The
hazardous conditions will impact the morning commute on
Thursday.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
Experimental content below...do not use operationally
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4393 7515 4408 7515 4417 7534 4397 7575
4398 7584 4385 7606 4367 7602 4367 7575 4379 7563
4388 7544
TIME Y22M12D01T0100Z-Y22M12D01T0600Z
COORD...4398 7514 4401 7526 4392 7570 4394 7588
4388 7606 4376 7623 4348 7623 4346 7564 4355 7547
4360 7513
TIME Y22M12D01T0600Z-Y22M12D01T1200Z
COORD...4378 7512 4371 7550 4384 7569 4384 7611
4359 7625 4350 7647 4343 7595 4348 7581 4342 7550
4360 7513
TIME Y22M12D01T1200Z-Y22M12D01T1800Z
COORD...4360 7552 4364 7569 4365 7598 4360 7612
4349 7611 4341 7616 4339 7601 4345 7570 4342 7550
4352 7533
TIME Y22M12D01T1800Z-Y22M12D02T0000Z
$$
NYZ012-019-020-085-292130-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0026.221130T2100Z-221201T1800Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park,
and Springville
822 AM EST Tue Nov 29 2022
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY
TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY...
* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of
4 to 7 inches in the most persistent lake snows across higher
terrain. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will produce
extensive blowing and drifting snow.
* WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie
counties. Greatest snow accumulations across the Boston Hills,
western Wyoming County, and the Chautauqua Ridge.
* WHEN...From 4 PM Wednesday to 1 PM EST Thursday.
* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions.
Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility.
The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute
Wednesday and the morning commute Thursday.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
$$683
WWUS41 KBUF 291909
WSWBUF
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
209 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2022
NYZ006>008-300400-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0007.221201T0100Z-221202T0000Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
209 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2022
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY
TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations
of 8 to 16 inches in the most persistent lake snows across the
Tug Hill Plateau, with 4 to 8 inches for surrounding lower
elevations. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph will produce
extensive blowing and drifting snow.
* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. Greatest accumulations
across the Tug Hill Plateau.
* WHEN...From 8 PM Wednesday to 7 PM EST Thursday.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult at times. Areas of
blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The
hazardous conditions will impact the morning commute on
Thursday.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
Experimental content below...do not use operationally
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4393 7515 4408 7515 4417 7534 4397 7575
4398 7584 4385 7606 4367 7602 4367 7575 4379 7563
4388 7544
TIME Y22M12D01T0100Z-Y22M12D01T0600Z
COORD...4398 7514 4401 7526 4392 7570 4394 7588
4388 7606 4376 7623 4348 7623 4346 7564 4355 7547
4360 7513
TIME Y22M12D01T0600Z-Y22M12D01T1200Z
COORD...4378 7512 4371 7550 4384 7569 4384 7611
4359 7625 4350 7647 4343 7595 4348 7581 4342 7550
4360 7513
TIME Y22M12D01T1200Z-Y22M12D01T1800Z
COORD...4360 7552 4364 7569 4365 7598 4360 7612
4349 7611 4341 7616 4339 7601 4345 7570 4342 7550
4352 7533
TIME Y22M12D01T1800Z-Y22M12D02T0000Z
$$
NYZ012-019-020-085-300400-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0026.221130T2100Z-221201T1800Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park,
and Springville
209 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2022
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY
TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY...
* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4
to 7 inches in the most persistent lake snows across higher
terrain. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph will produce extensive
blowing and drifting snow.
* WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie
counties. Greatest snow accumulations across the Boston Hills,
western Wyoming County, and the Chautauqua Ridge.
* WHEN...From 4 PM Wednesday to 1 PM EST Thursday.
* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions.
Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility.
The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute
Wednesday and the morning commute Thursday.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
$$
Apffel605
WWUS41 KBUF 300246
WSWBUF
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
946 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2022
NYZ006>008-301100-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0007.221201T0100Z-221202T0000Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
946 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2022
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY
TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow
accumulations of 8 to 16 inches in the most persistent lake
snows across the Tug Hill Plateau, with 4 to 8 inches for
surrounding lower elevations. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph
will produce extensive blowing and drifting snow.
* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. Greatest
accumulations across the Tug Hill Plateau.
* WHEN...From 8 PM Wednesday to 7 PM EST Thursday.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult at times. Areas of
blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The
hazardous conditions will impact the morning commute on
Thursday.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
Experimental content below...do not use operationally
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4393 7515 4408 7515 4417 7534 4397 7575
4398 7584 4385 7606 4367 7602 4367 7575 4379 7563
4388 7544
TIME Y22M12D01T0100Z-Y22M12D01T0600Z
COORD...4398 7514 4401 7526 4392 7570 4394 7588
4388 7606 4376 7623 4348 7623 4346 7564 4355 7547
4360 7513
TIME Y22M12D01T0600Z-Y22M12D01T1200Z
COORD...4378 7512 4371 7550 4384 7569 4384 7611
4359 7625 4350 7647 4343 7595 4348 7581 4342 7550
4360 7513
TIME Y22M12D01T1200Z-Y22M12D01T1800Z
COORD...4360 7552 4364 7569 4365 7598 4360 7612
4349 7611 4341 7616 4339 7601 4345 7570 4342 7550
4352 7533
TIME Y22M12D01T1800Z-Y22M12D02T0000Z
$$
NYZ012-019-020-085-301100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0026.221130T2100Z-221201T1800Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park,
and Springville
946 PM EST Tue Nov 29 2022
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY
TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY...
* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of
4 to 7 inches in the most persistent lake snows across higher
terrain. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph will produce
extensive blowing and drifting snow.
* WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie
counties. Greatest snow accumulations across the Boston Hills,
western Wyoming County, and the Chautauqua Ridge.
* WHEN...From 4 PM Wednesday to 1 PM EST Thursday.
* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions.
Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility.
The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute
Wednesday and the morning commute Thursday.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
$$
JLA803
WWUS41 KBUF 300844
WSWBUF
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
344 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2022
NYZ006>008-301645-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0007.221201T0100Z-221202T0000Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
344 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2022
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS
EVENING TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations
of 8 to 15 inches in the most persistent lake snows across the
Tug Hill Plateau, with 4 to 7 inches across the surrounding
lower elevations. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph will produce
extensive blowing and drifting snow.
* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. Greatest accumulations
across the Tug Hill Plateau.
* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Thursday.
* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult at times. Areas of
blowing snow will significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous
conditions will impact the morning commute on Thursday.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
Experimental content below...do not use operationally
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4408 7515 4417 7538 4401 7570 4392 7591
4382 7595 4365 7595 4362 7570 4364 7548 4375 7531
4373 7513
TIME Y22M12D01T0100Z-Y22M12D01T0600Z
COORD...4398 7514 4397 7533 4390 7588 4383 7602
4352 7620 4347 7612 4348 7581 4344 7581 4342 7550
4360 7513
TIME Y22M12D01T0600Z-Y22M12D01T1200Z
COORD...4360 7513 4367 7512 4372 7559 4376 7561
4379 7584 4373 7609 4343 7616 4341 7583 4347 7570
4342 7550
TIME Y22M12D01T1200Z-Y22M12D01T1800Z
COORD...4357 7523 4361 7540 4365 7578 4361 7606
4342 7606 4336 7595 4346 7581 4331 7588 4347 7570
4345 7548
TIME Y22M12D01T1800Z-Y22M12D02T0000Z
$$
NYZ012-019-020-085-301645-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0026.221130T2100Z-221201T1800Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park,
and Springville
344 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2022
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY...
* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4
to 7 inches in the most persistent lake snows across higher
terrain. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will produce extensive
blowing and drifting snow.
* WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie
counties.
* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Thursday.
* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery roads. Areas of
blowing snow will significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous
conditions could impact the evening commute today and the
morning commute on Thursday.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
$$
Hitchcock912
WWUS41 KBUF 301425
WSWBUF
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
925 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2022
NYZ006>008-302230-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0007.221201T0100Z-221202T0000Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
925 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2022
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS
EVENING TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow
accumulations of 8 to 15 inches in the most persistent lake
snows across the Tug Hill Plateau, with 4 to 7 inches across
the surrounding lower elevations. Winds gusting as high as 50
mph will produce extensive blowing and drifting snow.
* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. Greatest
accumulations across the Tug Hill Plateau.
* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Thursday.
* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult at times. Areas of
blowing snow will significantly reduce visibility. The
hazardous conditions will impact the morning commute on
Thursday.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
Experimental content below...do not use operationally
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4408 7515 4417 7538 4401 7570 4392 7591
4382 7595 4365 7595 4362 7570 4364 7548 4375 7531
4373 7513
TIME Y22M12D01T0100Z-Y22M12D01T0600Z
COORD...4398 7514 4397 7533 4390 7588 4383 7602
4352 7620 4347 7612 4348 7581 4344 7581 4342 7550
4360 7513
TIME Y22M12D01T0600Z-Y22M12D01T1200Z
COORD...4360 7513 4367 7512 4372 7559 4376 7561
4379 7584 4373 7609 4343 7616 4341 7583 4347 7570
4342 7550
TIME Y22M12D01T1200Z-Y22M12D01T1800Z
COORD...4357 7523 4361 7540 4365 7578 4361 7606
4342 7606 4336 7595 4346 7581 4331 7588 4347 7570
4345 7548
TIME Y22M12D01T1800Z-Y22M12D02T0000Z
$$
NYZ012-019-020-085-302230-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0026.221130T2100Z-221201T1800Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park,
and Springville
925 AM EST Wed Nov 30 2022
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY...
* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of
4 to 7 inches in the most persistent lake snows across higher
terrain. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will produce
extensive blowing and drifting snow.
* WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie
counties.
* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Thursday.
* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery roads. Areas of
blowing snow will significantly reduce visibility. The
hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute today
and the morning commute on Thursday.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
$$
Apffel373
WWUS41 KBUF 301921
WSWBUF
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
221 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2022
NYZ006>008-010400-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0007.221201T0100Z-221202T0000Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
221 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2022
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS
EVENING TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations
of 8 to 15 inches in the most persistent lake snows across the
Tug Hill Plateau, with 4 to 7 inches across the surrounding
lower elevations. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will produce
extensive blowing and drifting snow.
* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. Greatest
accumulations across the Tug Hill Plateau.
* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Thursday.
* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult at times. Areas of
blowing snow will significantly reduce visibility. The
hazardous conditions will impact the morning commute on
Thursday.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
Experimental content below...do not use operationally
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4408 7515 4417 7538 4401 7570 4392 7591
4382 7595 4365 7595 4362 7570 4364 7548 4375 7531
4373 7513
TIME Y22M12D01T0100Z-Y22M12D01T0600Z
COORD...4398 7514 4397 7533 4390 7588 4383 7602
4352 7620 4347 7612 4348 7581 4344 7581 4342 7550
4360 7513
TIME Y22M12D01T0600Z-Y22M12D01T1200Z
COORD...4380 7536 4391 7558 4393 7597 4386 7613
4358 7616 4338 7634 4334 7590 4347 7570 4342 7550
4360 7513
TIME Y22M12D01T1200Z-Y22M12D01T1800Z
COORD...4357 7523 4361 7540 4365 7578 4361 7606
4342 7606 4336 7595 4346 7581 4331 7588 4347 7570
4345 7548
TIME Y22M12D01T1800Z-Y22M12D02T0000Z
$$
NYZ012-019-020-085-010400-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0026.221130T2100Z-221201T1800Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park,
and Springville
221 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2022
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
THURSDAY...
* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of
4 to 7 inches in the most persistent lake snows across higher
terrain. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will produce
extensive blowing and drifting snow.
* WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie
counties.
* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Thursday.
* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery roads. Areas of
blowing snow will significantly reduce visibility. The
hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute today
and the morning commute on Thursday.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
$$
Apffel248
WWUS41 KBUF 302341
WSWBUF
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
641 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2022
NYZ006>008-010900-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0007.221201T0100Z-221202T0000Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
641 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2022
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
THURSDAY...
* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations
of 8 to 15 inches in the most persistent lake snows across the
Tug Hill Plateau, with 4 to 7 inches across the surrounding
lower elevations. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph will produce
extensive blowing and drifting snow.
* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. Greatest
accumulations across the Tug Hill Plateau.
* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Thursday.
* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult at times. Areas of
blowing snow will significantly reduce visibility. The
hazardous conditions will impact the morning commute on
Thursday.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
Experimental content below...do not use operationally
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4408 7515 4417 7538 4401 7570 4392 7591
4382 7595 4365 7595 4362 7570 4364 7548 4375 7531
4373 7513
TIME Y22M12D01T0100Z-Y22M12D01T0600Z
COORD...4398 7514 4397 7533 4390 7588 4383 7602
4352 7620 4347 7612 4348 7581 4344 7581 4342 7550
4360 7513
TIME Y22M12D01T0600Z-Y22M12D01T1200Z
COORD...4380 7536 4391 7558 4393 7597 4386 7613
4358 7616 4338 7634 4334 7590 4347 7570 4342 7550
4360 7513
TIME Y22M12D01T1200Z-Y22M12D01T1800Z
COORD...4357 7523 4361 7540 4365 7578 4361 7606
4342 7606 4336 7595 4346 7581 4331 7588 4347 7570
4345 7548
TIME Y22M12D01T1800Z-Y22M12D02T0000Z
$$
NYZ012-019-020-085-010900-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-221201T1800Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park,
and Springville
641 PM EST Wed Nov 30 2022
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST
THURSDAY...
* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 7
inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high
as 45 mph will produce extensive blowing and drifting snow.
* WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie
counties.
* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Thursday.
* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery roads. Areas of
blowing snow will significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning commute on Thursday.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
$$
JLA611
WWUS41 KBUF 010858
WSWBUF
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
358 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2022
NYZ006>008-011700-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0007.000000T0000Z-221202T0000Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
358 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2022
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of
4 to 9 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting
as high as 45 mph will produce extensive blowing and drifting
snow..
* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.
* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.
* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult at times. Areas of
blowing snow will significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous
conditions will impact the commute this morning.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
Experimental content below...do not use operationally
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4360 7513 4380 7512 4374 7543 4382 7578
4367 7602 4346 7623 4336 7611 4348 7581 4345 7570
4342 7550
TIME Y22M12D01T0900Z-Y22M12D01T1200Z
COORD...4360 7513 4376 7513 4387 7583 4372 7622
4357 7625 4343 7667 4325 7655 4320 7587 4348 7581
4342 7550
TIME Y22M12D01T1200Z-Y22M12D01T1800Z
COORD...4356 7559 4366 7605 4365 7617 4355 7606
4343 7601 4338 7593 4341 7583 4348 7581 4342 7550
4350 7542
TIME Y22M12D01T1800Z-Y22M12D02T0000Z
$$
NYZ012-019-020-085-011700-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-221201T1800Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park,
and Springville
358 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2022
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to
4 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as
high as 40 mph will produce considerable blowing and drifting
snow..
* WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie
counties.
* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.
* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery roads. Areas of
blowing snow will significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous
conditions could impact the commute this morning.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
$$
TMA524
WWUS41 KBUF 011435
WSWBUF
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
935 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2022
NYZ006>008-012245-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0007.000000T0000Z-221202T0000Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
935 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2022
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow and areas of blowing snow.
Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches in the most
persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.
* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. Greatest amounts in
Oswego County and across the Tug Hill Plateau.
* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.
* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing
snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous
conditions could impact the evening commute.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
Experimental content below...do not use operationally
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4360 7513 4380 7512 4374 7543 4382 7578
4367 7602 4346 7623 4336 7611 4348 7581 4345 7570
4342 7550
TIME Y22M12D01T0900Z-Y22M12D01T1200Z
COORD...4360 7513 4376 7513 4387 7583 4372 7622
4357 7625 4343 7667 4325 7655 4320 7587 4348 7581
4342 7550
TIME Y22M12D01T1200Z-Y22M12D01T1800Z
COORD...4356 7559 4366 7605 4365 7617 4355 7606
4343 7601 4338 7593 4341 7583 4348 7581 4342 7550
4350 7542
TIME Y22M12D01T1800Z-Y22M12D02T0000Z
$$
NYZ012-019-020-085-011800-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-221201T1800Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park,
and Springville
935 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2022
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
* WHAT...Lake effect snow and areas of blowing snow. Additional
snow accumulations of 2 inches or less. Winds gusting as high
as 35 mph.
* WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie
counties.
* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST this afternoon.
* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing
snow could significantly reduce visibility.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Lake effect snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If
traveling, be prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and
visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
$$
Apffel416
WWUS41 KBUF 011639
WSWBUF
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1139 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2022
NYZ012-019-020-085-011745-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-221201T1800Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park,
and Springville
1139 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2022
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...
Additional snow accumulation of less than an inch.
$$
NYZ006>008-020000-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0007.000000T0000Z-221202T0000Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
1139 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2022
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow and blowing snow. Additional snow
accumulations of 3 to 5 inches in the most persistent lake
snows. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.
* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.
* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.
* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing
snow could significantly reduce visibility.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
Experimental content below...do not use operationally
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4360 7513 4380 7512 4374 7543 4382 7578
4367 7602 4346 7623 4336 7611 4348 7581 4345 7570
4342 7550
TIME Y22M12D01T0900Z-Y22M12D01T1200Z
COORD...4360 7513 4376 7513 4387 7583 4372 7622
4357 7625 4343 7667 4325 7655 4320 7587 4348 7581
4342 7550
TIME Y22M12D01T1200Z-Y22M12D01T1800Z
COORD...4356 7559 4366 7605 4365 7617 4355 7606
4343 7601 4338 7593 4341 7583 4348 7581 4342 7550
4350 7542
TIME Y22M12D01T1800Z-Y22M12D02T0000Z
$$
Apffel566
WWUS41 KBUF 012036
WSWBUF
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
336 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2022
NYZ007-012145-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.W.0007.000000T0000Z-221202T0000Z/
Jefferson-
Including the city of Watertown
336 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2022
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED...
The heaviest lake effect snow has diminished this afternoon. Gusty
winds may result in patchy blowing snow.
$$
NYZ006-008-020000-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0007.000000T0000Z-221202T0000Z/
Oswego-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego and Lowville
336 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2022
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of
up to 2 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting
as high as 35 mph will result in areas of blowing and drifting
snow.
* WHERE...Oswego and Lewis counties.
* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.
* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing
snow could significantly reduce visibility.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.
Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
&&
Experimental content below...do not use operationally
To view the experimental polygons please see:
http://www.weather.gov/buf/lespolygon
COORD...4360 7513 4380 7512 4374 7543 4382 7578
4367 7602 4346 7623 4336 7611 4348 7581 4345 7570
4342 7550
TIME Y22M12D01T0900Z-Y22M12D01T1200Z
COORD...4360 7513 4376 7513 4387 7583 4372 7622
4357 7625 4343 7667 4325 7655 4320 7587 4348 7581
4342 7550
TIME Y22M12D01T1200Z-Y22M12D01T1800Z
COORD...4356 7559 4366 7605 4365 7617 4355 7606
4343 7601 4338 7593 4341 7583 4348 7581 4342 7550
4350 7542
TIME Y22M12D01T1800Z-Y22M12D02T0000Z
$$
JLA756 WWUS41 KBUF 012315 WSWBUF URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 615 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2022 NYZ006-008-020015- /O.CAN.KBUF.LE.W.0007.000000T0000Z-221202T0000Z/ Oswego-Lewis- Including the cities of Oswego and Lowville 615 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2022 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED... Snow showers continue to diminish. Though a few light snowers will occur tonight, little if any additional accumulation is expected. Some roads across the higher terrain could still be covered by the fresh snow, so use caution if traveling tonight. $$ JLA
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this lake effect snow warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this lake effect snow warning went out at Nov 29, 12:43 AM EST, 3 hours earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 29, 12:43 AM EST, 3 hours before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1243 AM EST Tue Nov 29 2022
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather will return through Tuesday as high pressure builds east
across the Great Lakes. Low pressure will then pass well northwest
of our region Wednesday, bringing another period of rain. A strong
cold front will sweep across the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday
afternoon, with very gusty winds as colder air pours back into the
region. The cold air will set the stage for a brief period of
accumulating lake effect snow east of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie
Wednesday night through Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Abundant low level moisture will remain trapped beneath a frontal
inversion through tonight. This will maintain stratus cloud cover
across most of the area, although there may be some breaks in the
cloud cover overnight. A few very light mixed rain/snow showers are
possible east and southeast of Lake Ontario. Low temperatures will
drop back into the upper 20s to lower 30s in most areas, with lower
20s for the North Country where some breaks in the clouds are more
likely overnight.
Tuesday, surface high pressure will drift east towards the coast,
allowing for warm advection and a southerly flow to increase across
the eastern Great Lakes. Areas of low clouds may still be around in
the morning, but most of this should clear out in the afternoon with
increasing southerly flow. Mid/high clouds will increase through the
day in the warm advection regime ahead of the next system, so
overall sunshine may still be quite limited. The arriving warmer
airmass will support highs in the mid to upper 40s in most areas,
with upper 30s to lower 40s for the North Country.
The pattern across the CONUS will be undergoing amplification
Tuesday night as an anomalously deep trough deepens across the
Plains and a ridge builds into the Canadian Maritimes. A surface low
pressure system will track from eastern Iowa to the
northeastern side of Lake Superior overnight. A strong cold
front trailing the surface low will approach the eastern Great
Lakes. Dry and relatively calm conditions will persist through
the evening with mid to high level clouds increasing from
southwest to northeast. As the night goes on, a southeasterly
flow will increase at the surface while a 40-50kt low level jet
moves overhead. Wind gusts to 50 mph are likely in common
downslope areas including the Chautauqua ridge and northwest Tug
Hill region. Showers will enter western NY the second half of
the night and track southwest to northeast into Wednesday
morning. Temperatures will likely fall the first half of the
night when low temperatures will likely be reached. Lows will be
in the upper 30s to low 40s across Western NY and in the low
30s across the Eastern Lake Ontario region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DURING THIS PERIOD...AN ENERGETIC AND INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SURFACE...ITS CORRESPONDING SURFACE
LOW WILL CONSOLIDATE AND STEADILY DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS FROM CENTRAL
ONTARIO PROVINCE TO NEAR JAMES BAY DURING WEDNESDAY...THEN ACROSS
NORTHERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. IN THE PROCESS...THIS
SYSTEM WILL PIVOT ITS TRAILING STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE CONTINUING
THE OVERALL TREND TOWARD A FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT'S BEEN SEEN
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS THE
BOUNDARY CROSSING FAR WESTERN NEW YORK DURING THE LATE MORNING/
MIDDAY HOURS...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG SYNOPTIC-SCALE
FORCING WILL PROMOTE INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS OUR
AREA...WITH THE RAIN POTENTIALLY BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT RAINFALL PROJECTIONS
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM AROUND A HALF INCH ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
TO AS MUCH AS AN INCH TO INCH AND A HALF EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. WHILE
THE EARLIER TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES NOT
GETTING QUITE AS HIGH AS IT APPEARED A DAY OR TWO AGO...THE MILD
AIRMASS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL STILL ALLOW READINGS TO PEAK IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S...WITH THE WARMEST READINGS FOUND IN AREAS OF
FAVORED DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE OVER TO THE
WESTERN FINGER LAKES. SPEAKING OF WHICH...THE STRONG S/SSE FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO LEAD TO BREEZY TO FAIRLY WINDY
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE...WITH A FEW SPOTS DOWNWIND OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES/NORTH COUNTRY POTENTIALLY SEEING
GUSTS TO 40-50 MPH...AND SIMILAR GUSTS ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
BLACK RIVER VALLEY DUE TO FUNNELLING EFFECTS.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL THEN PLOW ACROSS
OUR REGION BETWEEN LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING A QUICK END TO THE STEADIER RAIN...WITH MUCH COLDER
AIR THEN QUICKLY OVERSPREADING OUR REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
BOUNDARY AND LEADING TO EFFICIENT DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF HIGHER
MOMENTUM AIR FROM ALOFT. WITH A SOLD 40-50 KNOT FLOW LOOKING TO BE
IN PLACE IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER IN THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME...IT IS
LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT WE'LL SEE A ROUND OF AT ADVISORY-
WORTHY WIND GUSTS (OF 45-50 MPH) ENSUE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. INITIALLY...THE WSW FLOW
AND FUNNELLING EFFECTS WILL HELP FOCUS THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS
THE TYPICAL AREAS FROM THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER TO ROCHESTER AND ALSO ACROSS AREAS NE OF LAKE
ONTARIO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE
FINGER LAKES AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE WESTERLY.
QUICKLY DIMINISHING WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND LEADS TO A
RAPIDLY WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. FOR NOW...HAVE CONTINUED TO
HIGHLIGHT THE WINDS WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
THE INCOMING COLDER AIRMASS AND GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL ALSO LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN
AND SNOW EAST OF THE LAKES LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH ALL THIS THEN QUICKLY CHANGING OVER TO ALL
SNOW BY MID TO LATE EVENING AS THE COLDER AIR DEEPENS. THE LAKE
SNOWS WILL THEN CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...BEFORE WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER AIR BUILD INTO OUR REGION.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE...THE BEST SETUP FOR THE LAKE SNOWS STILL LOOKS
TO BE ACROSS AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...WHERE INVERSION HEIGHTS OF
UP TO 10 KFT...SUFFICIENTLY DEEP MOISTURE...A LONG FETCH ACROSS THE
LAKE...AND STRONG OROGRAPHIC LIFT FROM THE TUG HILL ALL LOOK TO BE
IN PLACE FOR A SOLID 12-18 HOUR PERIOD. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO
TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1 FOOT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE TUG HILL BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WHICH
COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED WINDS (AND RESULTANT BLOWING SNOW) IS
PLENTY MORE THAN ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
THIS AREA AT THIS JUNCTURE. AGAIN...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THESE
HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TUG
HILL...WITH MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ADJOINING LOWER
ELEVATIONS.
OFF LAKE ERIE...CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE SOMEWHAT LESS FAVORABLE WITH A
SOMEWHAT LOWER INVERSION AND SHALLOWER MOISTURE...A SHORTER FETCH
ACROSS THE LAKE...AND A SHORTER TIME WINDOW FOR THE MOST FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS. ADDITIONALLY...THE BEST ACTIVITY ALSO APPEARS AS IF IT
WILL BE MOVING AROUND A BIT MORE (AND THUS MORE TRANSIENT IN
NATURE)...WITH THE ACTIVITY INITIALLY STARTING OFF MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING COUNTIES LATER WEDNESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE SLIPPING FURTHER SOUTH INTO CHAUTAUQUA
AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SLOW BUT STEADY
VEERING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. NONETHELESS...CURRENT FORECAST
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND WINDS WILL LIKELY JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF AT
LEAST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA AT SOME POINT.
IN GENERAL THE LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL BE AT ITS PEAK BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE QUICKLY
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH DRIER AIR BUILDS IN.
OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT AND PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED WINDS...THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD WILL JUST BE
MAINLY DRY AND NOTABLY COLDER...WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S ON THURSDAY
SANDWICHED BETWEEN LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S BOTH NIGHTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Broad upper and mid-level ridging will extend across the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley Friday morning, where it will support an area of
surface high pressure to span across the Mid-Atlantic states and
Northeast. Meanwhile upstream across the western half of the CONUS,
an upper/mid- level shortwave trough will support an area of surface
low pressure to form on the leeward side of the Rockies. Overall,
expect a rather dry day Friday with a slight modulation of
temperatures as southwest winds advect warmer air in across the
region.
Starting Friday night and lasting throughout the remainder of the
weekend, the pattern will return back to its unsettled state as the
upper/mid- level shortwave trough pushes eastward and strengthens
the jet streak across the Plains, ultimately deepening the surface
low as it traverses northeast across the Plains and into the Great
Lakes. All this being said, this pattern may support another strong
cold front to sweep across the region this weekend where rain and
snow showers will be possible Friday night into Monday morning.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Abundant low level moisture and weak northwest upslope flow will
continue to produce widespread stratus overnight. Expect a mix of
MVFR and low VFR CIGS areawide, with localized IFR across the higher
terrain.
Conditions will improve Tuesday as stratus will lift and scatter
during the day, with the low cloud cover slowly being replaced by
VFR high cloud cover.
Outlook...
Tuesday night...VFR.
Wednesday...Deteriorating to MVFR/IFR with rain. Windy.
Thursday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers. Lake effect snow
and local IFR/LIFR east of the lakes. Windy.
Friday...VFR.
Saturday...Mainly VFR. A chance of rain showers.
&&
.MARINE...
Expansive high pressure will bring a period of relatively light
winds through Tuesday.
A deepening area of low pressure will move from near Lake Superior
Tuesday night to just east of James Bay by Wednesday night, with a
strong cold front sweeping across the lower Great Lakes late
Wednesday. Southerly winds will increase ahead of this system
Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, with a period of Small Craft
Advisory conditions likely. Winds will become westerly behind the
cold front late Wednesday through Thursday, with a period of gales
probable during this period.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A period of rain will move into the area late Tuesday night and
Wednesday ahead of a strong cold front. Increased runoff from
rain and any remaining snowmelt across central and southern Erie
County will again result in rises on the Buffalo area creeks
late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Creeks will likely rise to
action stage, with a limited potential to approach minor flood
if there is still snowpack left to melt by Wednesday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
In the wake of a strong cold front...westerly winds will likely
increase to 35 to 40 knots across Lake Ontario Wednesday afternoon
and then should continue through Wednesday night and into
Thursday. Coupled with existing water levels...the resulting
high waves may cause flooding along the immediate Lake Ontario
shoreline in Oswego and Jefferson counties.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Lakeshore Flood Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday
afternoon for NYZ006-007.
Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday
afternoon for NYZ006>008.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday morning for
LEZ040-041.
Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
afternoon for LOZ042>045-062>065.
&&
SYNOPSIS...Apffel/Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Apffel/Hitchcock/PP/TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...PP
MARINE...Apffel/Hitchcock
HYDROLOGY...Apffel/Hitchcock
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JJRHazardous weather outlook, Nov 28, 3:35 PM EST, 12 hours 8 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Buffalo NY 335 PM EST Mon Nov 28 2022 NYZ001>005-011-013-014-021-292045- Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Genesee-Livingston- Ontario-Allegany- 335 PM EST Mon Nov 28 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north central New York. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Westerly winds will increase and may gust to 45 to 55 mph Wednesday afternoon through Thursday behind a strong cold front. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ010-292045- Northern Erie- 335 PM EST Mon Nov 28 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Another round of rainfall is expected Wednesday. Increased runoff from the rain and the last of the snowmelt across central and southern Erie County will result in rises on the Buffalo area creeks. There is a low chance the creeks may approach flood stage if there is still snow left to melt by Wednesday. Westerly winds will increase and may gust to 45 to 55 mph Wednesday afternoon through Thursday behind a strong cold front. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ085-292045- Southern Erie- 335 PM EST Mon Nov 28 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Another round of rainfall is expected Wednesday. Increased runoff from the rain and the last of the snowmelt across central and southern Erie County will result in rises on the Buffalo area creeks. There is a low chance the creeks may approach flood stage if there is still snow left to melt by Wednesday. Westerly winds will increase and may gust to 45 to 55 mph Wednesday afternoon through Thursday behind a strong cold front. Lake effect snow will develop east of Lake Erie Wednesday night and Thursday, with accumulating snow possible across the higher terrain east of the lake. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ012-019-020-292045- Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus- 335 PM EST Mon Nov 28 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Westerly winds will increase and may gust to 45 to 55 mph Wednesday afternoon through Thursday behind a strong cold front. Lake effect snow will develop east of Lake Erie Wednesday night and Thursday, with accumulating snow possible across the higher terrain east of the lake. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ008-292045- Lewis- 335 PM EST Mon Nov 28 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Winter Storm Watch. Westerly winds will increase and may gust to 45 to 55 mph Wednesday afternoon through Thursday behind a strong cold front. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ006-007-292045- Oswego-Jefferson- 335 PM EST Mon Nov 28 2022 ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Lakeshore Flood Watch. Winter Storm Watch. Westerly winds will increase and may gust to 45 to 55 mph Wednesday afternoon through Thursday behind a strong cold front. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LOZ042>045-062>065-292045- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 335 PM EST Mon Nov 28 2022 ...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Gale Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ040-041-292045- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- 335 PM EST Mon Nov 28 2022 ...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Gale Watch. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ020-LOZ030-SLZ022-024-292045- Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River- Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg- Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis- 335 PM EST Mon Nov 28 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake Ontario and Saint Lawrence River. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf
The office that day
Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 3:38 AM EST | Wind Advisory | BUF | Allegany, Cattaraugus, Cayuga, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee and 10 more | 56 hr |
| Nov 29, 3:43 AM EST | Winter Weather Advisory | BUF | Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Wyoming | 56 hr |
| Nov 29, 3:44 AM EST | Gale Warning | BUF | 57 hr | |
| Nov 29, 3:44 AM EST | Small Craft Advisory | BUF | 66 hr | |
| Nov 29, 12:44 PM EST | Lakeshore Flood Warning | BUF | Jefferson, Oswego | 51 hr |
Nearby
Lake Effect Snow Warnings in New York, 2022Every lake effect snow warning in 2022
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.