Alert archive / New York / High Wind Watches in 2022

High Wind Watch 2, NWS Buffalo, NY

December 1, 20228 counties in New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this high wind watch at Dec 1, 2022, 12:38 PM EST for 8 counties in New York. It took effect at Dec 2, 2022, 10:00 PM EST. It was in force for .

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Dec 1, 2022, 12:38 PM EST (17:38 UTC)
In effect from
Dec 2, 2022, 10:00 PM EST
Expired
Dec 2, 2022, 1:18 PM EST
In force
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

Counties Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Monroe County, NY, Niagara County, NY, Orleans County, NY, Wyoming County, NY

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 49 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 5.6 hours before the alert went out and 47 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2022-12-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 3 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 2022-12-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 144 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
3 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-1 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
846 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
51 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
144 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
172 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

391 
WWUS71 KBUF 011738
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1238 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2022

NYZ019-085-020300-
/O.NEW.KBUF.HW.A.0002.221203T0300Z-221204T0000Z/
Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville
1238 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2022

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  possible.

* WHERE...Chautauqua and Southern Erie counties.

* WHEN...From Friday evening through Saturday evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power 
  lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this
situation. Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe
location prior to the onset of winds.

&&

$$

NYZ001>003-010>012-020300-
/O.NEW.KBUF.HW.A.0002.221203T1300Z-221204T0000Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, 
Buffalo, Batavia, and Warsaw
1238 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2022

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  possible.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Northern Erie, Genesee, and 
  Wyoming counties.

* WHEN...From Saturday morning through Saturday evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power 
  lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this
situation. Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe
location prior to the onset of winds.

&&

$$

NYZ007-020300-
/O.NEW.KBUF.HW.A.0002.221203T1500Z-221204T0300Z/
Jefferson-
Including the city of Watertown
1238 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2022

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  possible.

* WHERE...Jefferson county.

* WHEN...From Saturday morning through Saturday evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power 
  lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this
situation. Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe
location prior to the onset of winds.

&&

$$

Apffel
3 follow-up statements
467 
WWUS71 KBUF 020226
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
926 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2022

NYZ019-085-021030-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.A.0002.221203T0300Z-221204T0000Z/
Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville
926 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2022

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  possible.

* WHERE...Chautauqua and Southern Erie counties.

* WHEN...From Friday evening through Saturday evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power 
  lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this
situation. Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe
location prior to the onset of winds.

&&

$$

NYZ001>003-010>012-021030-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.A.0002.221203T1300Z-221204T0000Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, 
Buffalo, Batavia, and Warsaw
926 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2022

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  possible.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Northern Erie, Genesee, and 
  Wyoming counties.

* WHEN...From Saturday morning through Saturday evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power 
  lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this
situation. Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe
location prior to the onset of winds.

&&

$$

NYZ007-021030-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.A.0002.221203T1500Z-221204T0300Z/
Jefferson-
Including the city of Watertown
926 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2022

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  possible.

* WHERE...Jefferson county.

* WHEN...From Saturday morning through Saturday evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power 
  lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this
situation. Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe
location prior to the onset of winds.

&&

$$

JLA
789 
WWUS71 KBUF 020931
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
431 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2022

NYZ019-085-021745-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.A.0002.221203T0300Z-221204T0000Z/
Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville
431 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2022

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph possible
  tonight along the Lake Erie shoreline, then west 25 to 35 mph
  with gusts up to 60 mph possible Saturday. 

* WHERE...Chautauqua and Southern Erie counties.

* WHEN...From this evening through Saturday evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power 
  lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this
situation. Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe
location prior to the onset of winds.

&&

$$

NYZ001>003-010>012-021745-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.A.0002.221203T1300Z-221204T0000Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, 
Buffalo, Batavia, and Warsaw
431 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2022

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  possible.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Northern Erie, Genesee, and 
  Wyoming counties.

* WHEN...From Saturday morning through Saturday evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power 
  lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this
situation. Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe
location prior to the onset of winds.

&&

$$

NYZ007-021745-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.A.0002.221203T1500Z-221204T0300Z/
Jefferson-
Including the city of Watertown
431 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2022

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  possible.

* WHERE...Jefferson county.

* WHEN...From Saturday morning through Saturday evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power 
  lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates on this
situation. Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a safe
location prior to the onset of winds.

&&

$$

TMA
495 
WWUS71 KBUF 021818
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
118 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2022

NYZ019-085-030230-
/O.UPG.KBUF.HW.A.0002.221203T0300Z-221204T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.HW.W.0003.221203T0000Z-221203T2200Z/
Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville
118 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...South to southeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 
  60 mph expected tonight along the Lake Erie shoreline, then 
  southwest 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph possible 
  Saturday. 

* WHERE...Chautauqua and Southern Erie counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 5 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

NYZ001>003-010>012-030230-
/O.UPG.KBUF.HW.A.0002.221203T1300Z-221204T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.HW.W.0003.221203T1200Z-221203T2200Z/
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester, 
Buffalo, Batavia, and Warsaw
118 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Monroe, Northern Erie, Genesee, and 
  Wyoming counties.

* WHEN...From 7 AM to 5 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

NYZ007-030230-
/O.UPG.KBUF.HW.A.0002.221203T1500Z-221204T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.HW.W.0003.221203T1500Z-221204T0300Z/
Jefferson-
Including the city of Watertown
118 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...South to southeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55
  mph expected late Saturday morning, then southwest winds 25 to
  35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph expected.

* WHERE...Jefferson county.

* WHEN...From 10 AM to 10 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

NYZ004-005-013-014-030230-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WI.Y.0012.221203T1200Z-221203T2200Z/
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, Geneseo, 
and Canandaigua
118 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, Livingston, and Ontario 
  counties.

* WHEN...From 7 AM to 5 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NYZ006-008-030230-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WI.Y.0012.221203T1500Z-221204T0000Z/
Oswego-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego and Lowville
118 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Oswego and Lewis counties.

* WHEN...From 10 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NYZ020-030230-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WI.Y.0012.221203T1200Z-221203T2200Z/
Cattaraugus-
Including the city of Olean
118 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 5 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Cattaraugus county.

* WHEN...From 7 AM to 5 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this high wind watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this high wind watch went out at Dec 1, 9:47 AM EST, 2 hours 51 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 1, 9:47 AM EST, 2 hours 51 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
947 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Colder air moving into the region will result in accumulating lake
effect snow east of Lake Ontario today. High pressure will
build in Friday, followed by another storm system passing to our
northwest on Saturday that could produce more strong winds.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Ongoing accumulating lake effect snow will continue today,
mainly east of Lake Ontario. The core of the coldest air is coming
across the lower Great Lakes this morning with 850 mb temperatures
down to -12C. Better intensity and an upstream connection to
Lake Huron/Superior will enhance moisture leading to heavier
snows east of Lake Ontario.

Off Lake Ontario...

A westerly flow will maintain a hefty dominant lake effect band
across far southern Jefferson, southern Lewis and Oswego
counties this morning. Snowfall rates could peak near 2"/hr,
with the heaviest snows through early afternoon. The steering
flow will veer just a bit through the day today allowing the
heart of band to settle south and eventually becoming centered
on the far southern end of the Tug Hill and portions of Oswego
County. The greatest snowfall amounts will be focused across the
higher terrain of the Tug Hill where surface temperatures will
be colder, and where upslope flow enhances snowfall rates.

Expect additional amounts today of 4-8" in the most persistent
bands there. Surrounding lower elevations will see less, on the
order of 1-3". A Lake Effect Snow Warning remains in place for
east of Lake Ontario.

Off Lake Erie...

Bands will be much less organized off Lake Erie, due to limited
synoptic and upstream moisture. However, there still will be
enough lake induced instability and upslope lift to maintain
light lake effect snows through early afternoon. There also will
be areas of blowing snow, with additional accumulations up to 2
inches through early afternoon. Impacts will be localized,
however will maintain the advisory for now considering the
combination of blowing snow and ongoing lake effect snow.

Winds...
Gusty winds will continue today, with the strongest winds along
eastern portions of the Lake Ontario shoreline and in areas
which clear out. Gusts to 50 mph are possible thorugh early
afternoon. Elsewhere it still will be windy, with gusts 30 to 40
mph. Winds will diminish significantly by this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A brief respite from the active weather Friday as high pressure
ridging slides away from the New England coast, with dry albeit
cloudy conditions. Southerly return flow on the backside of the high
will strengthen through the day as temperatures top out in the 40s
to near 50.

...Strong gusty winds possible Friday night and Saturday...

Confidence continues to increase in the potential for another round
of strong winds, rain, and some accumulating lake effect snows this
period. A potent shortwave trough cutting across the Northern Plains
and into the Great Lakes region will result in rapid surface
cyclogenesis. This deepening surface low will track from near Lake
Superior Friday night to just east of James Bay by Saturday evening,
swinging an elongated cold front through the Lower Lakes as it does
so.

Two areas of concern regarding this system will be strong southerly
pre-frontal winds Friday night, followed by southwest to westerly
post-frontal winds on Saturday.

Regarding pre-frontal wind potential...A strong LLJ out ahead of the
cold front will move into the eastern Great Lakes Friday night, with
model soundings indicating winds of 50+kts below an inversion cap
around 925mb. Mixing of these strong winds will be somewhat
mitigated by the warm air advection regime in place overnight,
though downsloping off the Chautauqua Ridge and the northern
periphery of the Tug Hill Plateau will result in stronger gusts
making it to the surface. This scenario will also hinge on when
showers ahead of the front begin to arrive in Western NY...If
showers arrive earlier in the night, this could also further
stabilize the boundary layer and further inhibit mixing.

Attention will then turn to the post-frontal wind potential on
Saturday. Cold air advection in place, 850H winds peaking around
60kts behind the front, and the far northwestern track of the
surface low suggests a less-than-ideal setup for a 'widespread' high
impact wind event. This is supported by local research on
climatology of high wind events across the region. That being said,
in any case winds will still become gusty Saturday for much of the
area, though peak strength will be short-lived as winds quickly
begin to subside by Saturday evening.

Otherwise...Expect wet weather across the forecast area by the pre-
dawn hours Saturday morning. Temperatures peaking in the 40s to low
50s in the morning will support rain for the ptype, with much of the
area drying out from west to east Saturday afternoon. Cold air
pouring in behind the front will result in some lake effect precip
developing east of the lakes, initially a rain/snow mix quickly
changing over to all snow in the evening. Limited synoptic moisture
with surface high pressure building across the Ohio Valley will
limit accumulation potential overnight, though limited upstream
connections from Georgian Bay may support up to a few inches east of
Lake Ontario. Low temperatures by Sunday morning will be in the 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure ridged from the Ohio Valley to New York State will
slide eastward and off the east coast on Sunday...while a weak
surface low slides from central/northern Ontario Province to James
Bay. Lingering spotty lake effect snow showers east/east-southeast
of Lake Ontario at the start of the day should come to an end by
early afternoon with diminishing moisture and backing/shearing of
the low level flow...with an otherwise dry day and highs mainly in
the mid to upper 30s expected.

Sunday night the aforementioned low will lift northeastward across
northern Quebec while attempting to pivot its weak cold frontal
boundary southward across New York State...however this feature will
stall out and eventually disintegrate over our area as it loses the
support of its parent system. With dying forcing and only limited
moisture in place...this feature should generate little if any
precipitation in and of itself...though an associated brief influx
of colder air behind it could still be enough to trigger some
additional spotty lake effect snow showers east of Lake Ontario.
High pressure and drier air will then drift from our area to
northern New England on Monday while providing us with another
mainly dry and quiet day...with modest warm air advection on its
backside also allowing highs to climb back to the upper 30s and
lower 40s.

After that...the various model packages continue to exhibit
considerable run-to-run and model-to-model differences with the
details of the pattern evolution that will take place through the
balance of this period. That being said...in general broad large-
scale troughing should dig from the Plains States across the Great
Lakes...with a corresponding surface low developing over the
nation's midsection and tracking northeastward either across or a
bit to the north of our area. This system should bring rain/snow
chances and milder temperatures back into our area Monday night
through Tuesday...followed by at least somewhat colder
temperatures and lingering snow chances on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Bands of lake effect snow and attendant IFR/LIFR east of both lakes
this morning will taper off during the afternoon east of Lake Erie,
with the Lake Ontario activity weakening some, but still
holding together through the rest of the day. KJHW will be the
only one site affected by these snow bands. Outside of the lake
snows, mainly dry/VFR conditions will prevail.

Gusty west winds of 25-35 knots will continue into this afternoon
before finally slackening late in the day.

Tonight...Leftover lake effect snow showers ending east of Lake
Ontario...otherwise VFR.
Friday...VFR.
Saturday...VFR/MVFR and very windy with rain showers likely.
Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Deep low pressure will lift across northern Quebec today. The tight
pressure gradient from the low will keep Gale warnings in place for
Lake Ontario and Small Craft Advisories on Lake Erie and for
the rivers. Winds and waves will finally lessen below headline
thresholds by tonight. Southerly winds will ramp back up to
15-25 knots by late Friday or early Friday night, becoming
southwest and strengthening further to near gale force by
Saturday as a cold front crosses the lower Great Lakes.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
West gales of 35-40 knots will continue on Lake Ontario through
today in the wake of a strong cold front. The combination of
onshore winds and wave action will bring a very low chance of
limited lakeshore flooding in low lying areas at the east end of
Lake Ontario. Lake levels are below normal, which will mitigate
flood potential.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Wind Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ003>007.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for
     NYZ006>008.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ006-007.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ012-019-020-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
         LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon
         for LOZ030.
         Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LOZ042>045-
         062>065.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon
         for SLZ022.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Apffel/Hitchcock/JLA/TMA
NEAR TERM...Apffel/Hitchcock/JLA/TMA
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...Apffel/Hitchcock/JJR/TMA
MARINE...Apffel/Hitchcock/JLA/TMA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Hitchcock/JLA/TMA
Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 1, 5:18 AM EST, 7 hours 20 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
518 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2022

NYZ008-021030-
Lewis-
518 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2022

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lake Effect Snow Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Strong winds are possible again Saturday, with gusts over 50 mph
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006-007-021030-
Oswego-Jefferson-
518 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2022

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lake Effect Snow Warning.
   Lakeshore Flood Warning.
   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Strong winds are possible again Saturday, with gusts over 50 mph
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001-002-010-011-013-014-021-021030-
Niagara-Orleans-Northern Erie-Genesee-Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-
518 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Strong winds are possible again Saturday, with gusts over 50 mph
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ003>005-021030-
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
518 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Strong winds are possible again Saturday, with gusts over 50 mph
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ012-019-020-085-021030-
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
518 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Strong winds are possible again Saturday, with gusts over 50 mph
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ042>045-062>065-021030-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
518 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2022

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Gale force winds are possible again Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-021030-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
518 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Gale force winds are possible again Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-LOZ030-SLZ022-024-021030-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
518 AM EST Thu Dec 1 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Ontario and Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

In the hours before

Local storm report, Dec 1, 10:48 AM EST, 1 hour 50 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1048 AM EST THU DEC 1 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 AM     SNOW             1 NW CONSTABLEVILLE     43.58N 75.45W
12/01/2022  M3.5 INCH        LEWIS              NY   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION NY-LW-3 CONSTABLEVILLE 1.2
            NW.

0530 AM     SNOW             3 NE HOLLAND            42.67N 78.51W
12/01/2022  M6.8 INCH        ERIE               NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

0600 AM     SNOW             KENNEDY                 42.16N 79.10W
12/01/2022  M5.0 INCH        CHAUTAUQUA         NY   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION NY-CQ-5 KENNEDY 0.3 NE.

0600 AM     SNOW             2 W HOUGHTON            42.43N 78.19W
12/01/2022  M5.0 INCH        ALLEGANY           NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION RUHN6 RUSHFORD.

0600 AM     SNOW             5 W CONSTABLEVILLE      43.58N 75.52W
12/01/2022  M4.0 INCH        LEWIS              NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION HGHN6 HIGHMARKET 2W.

0600 AM     SNOW             1 SSE DEWITTVILLE       42.23N 79.44W
12/01/2022  M3.5 INCH        CHAUTAUQUA         NY   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION NY-CQ-42 DEWITTVILLE 1.0
            SSE.

0630 AM     SNOW             3 W WARSAW              42.74N 78.21W
12/01/2022  M12.0 INCH       WYOMING            NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION WSWN6 WARSAW 4W.

0700 AM     SNOW             1 WSW LITTLE VALLEY     42.25N 78.81W
12/01/2022  M8.0 INCH        CATTARAUGUS        NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION LTVN6 LITTLE VALLEY.

0700 AM     SNOW             5 NW GAINESVILLE        42.69N 78.22W
12/01/2022  M7.8 INCH        WYOMING            NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION WRSN6 WARSAW 6SW.

0700 AM     SNOW             3 N SILVER SPRINGS      42.71N 78.09W
12/01/2022  M7.5 INCH        WYOMING            NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION SVSN6 SILVER SPRINGS
            3N.

0700 AM     SNOW             2 WNW CATTARAUGUS       42.34N 78.91W
12/01/2022  M6.5 INCH        CATTARAUGUS        NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION CTGN6 CATTARAUGUS 3W.

0700 AM     SNOW             2 ESE FALCONER          42.11N 79.16W
12/01/2022  M6.0 INCH        CHAUTAUQUA         NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION JSTN6 JAMESTOWN 4ENE.

0700 AM     SNOW             FALCONER                42.12N 79.20W
12/01/2022  M5.5 INCH        CHAUTAUQUA         NY   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION NY-CQ-35 FALCONER 0.3 WSW.

0700 AM     SNOW             6 N HINSDALE            42.24N 78.40W
12/01/2022  M5.2 INCH        CATTARAUGUS        NY   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION NY-CT-25 ISCHUA 0.4 SSE.

0700 AM     SNOW             MAYVILLE                42.25N 79.50W
12/01/2022  M4.7 INCH        CHAUTAUQUA         NY   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION NY-CQ-41 MAYVILLE 0.2 ESE.

0700 AM     SNOW             1 WNW ARCADE            42.54N 78.45W
12/01/2022  M4.5 INCH        WYOMING            NY   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION NY-WY-16 ARCADE 0.8 WNW.

0700 AM     SNOW             1 SE GLENWOOD           42.61N 78.65W
12/01/2022  M4.0 INCH        ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION NY-ER-194 GLENWOOD 1.0 SE.

0700 AM     SNOW             1 NE LOWVILLE           43.79N 75.48W
12/01/2022  M3.5 INCH        LEWIS              NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION LOWN6 LOWVILLE.

0715 AM     SNOW             2 SE GLENWOOD           42.60N 78.64W
12/01/2022  M4.5 INCH        ERIE               NY   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION NY-ER-63 GLENWOOD 1.5 SE.

0725 AM     SNOW             WARSAW                  42.74N 78.13W
12/01/2022  M5.3 INCH        WYOMING            NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

0730 AM     SNOW             1 W EAST RANDOLPH       42.17N 78.96W
12/01/2022  M5.5 INCH        CATTARAUGUS        NY   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION NY-CT-2 RANDOLPH 1.1 ENE.

0730 AM     SNOW             1 N GERRY               42.20N 79.25W
12/01/2022  M4.5 INCH        CHAUTAUQUA         NY   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION NY-CQ-39 GERRY 0.8 N.

0739 AM     SNOW             JAMESTOWN               42.10N 79.24W
12/01/2022  M5.8 INCH        CHAUTAUQUA         NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

0800 AM     SNOW             2 WNW MOUNT MORRIS      42.73N 77.91W
12/01/2022  M6.5 INCH        LIVINGSTON         NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION MMRN6 MOUNT MORRIS
            2W.

0800 AM     SNOW             3 SE KENNEDY            42.13N 79.07W
12/01/2022  M4.5 INCH        CHAUTAUQUA         NY   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION NY-CQ-34 KENNEDY 2.6 SE.

0824 AM     SNOW             FRANKLINVILLE           42.34N 78.45W
12/01/2022  M4.2 INCH        CATTARAUGUS        NY   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION NY-CT-22 FRANKLINVILLE 0.5
            NNE.

&&

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 1, 12:27 PM ESTSmall Craft AdvisoryBUF16 hr
Dec 1, 12:39 PM ESTGale WatchBUF24 hr

Nearby

High Wind Watches in New York, 2022Every high wind watch in 2022

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.