Alert archive / New York / High Wind Warnings in 2022

High Wind Warning 4, NWS Buffalo, NY

December 22, 2022Jefferson County, Lewis County, Oswego County, New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this high wind warning at Dec 22, 2022, 3:57 AM EST for Jefferson County, Lewis County, Oswego County, New York. It took effect at Dec 22, 2022, 7:00 PM EST. It was in force for 11 hr. 9 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Dec 22, 2022, 3:57 AM EST (08:57 UTC)
In effect from
Dec 22, 2022, 7:00 PM EST
Expired
Dec 23, 2022, 6:22 AM EST
In force
11 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY

Counties Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Oswego County, NY

The radar

The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 18 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:59 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Dec 23, 12:40 AM ESTNON-TSTM WND DMGEllisburg, NYTREES AND POWERLINES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED.
Dec 23, 12:50 AM ESTNON-TSTM WND DMGLorraine, NYTREES AND POWERLINES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED.
Dec 23, 12:50 AM ESTNON-TSTM WND DMGMannsville, NYTREES AND POWERLINES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED.
Dec 23, 1:00 AM ESTNON-TSTM WND DMG3 Wnw Fulton, NYCORRECTS PREVIOUS NON-TSTM WND DMG REPORT FROM 3 WNW FULTON. NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN THROUGHOUT OSWEGO COUNTY. HEAVIEST TREE AND POWERLINE DAMAGE WAS IN THE TOWN OF GRANBY. TIME ESTIMATED.
Dec 23, 4:00 AM ESTNON-TSTM WND DMGPort Leyden, NYNUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN. LOTS OF POWER OUTAGES. TIME ESTIMATED.
Dec 23, 4:20 AM ESTNON-TSTM WND DMGCroghan, NYNUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN. LOTS OF POWER OUTAGES. TIME ESTIMATED.
Dec 23, 4:20 AM ESTNON-TSTM WND DMGNew Bremen, NYNUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN. LOTS OF POWER OUTAGES. TIME ESTIMATED.
Dec 23, 4:30 AM ESTNON-TSTM WND DMGWatson, NYNUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN AROUND WATSON. LOTS OF POWER OUTAGES. TIME ESTIMATED.
Dec 23, 6:26 AM ESTNON-TSTM WND DMG3 Wnw Fulton, NYNUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN THROUGHOUT OSWEGO COUNTY. HEAVIEST TREE AND POWERLINE DAMAGE WAS IN THE TOWN OF GRANBY. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON PEAK WIND AT FZY.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 00:00Z, 9.0 hours before the alert went out and 244 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 00:00Z on 2022-12-22Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 00:00Z on 2022-12-22The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 62 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
821 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
48 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
62 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
123 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

623 
WWUS71 KBUF 220857
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
357 AM EST Thu Dec 22 2022

NYZ006>008-221700-
/O.UPG.KBUF.HW.A.0003.221223T0000Z-221224T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.HW.W.0004.221223T0000Z-221223T1800Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
357 AM EST Thu Dec 22 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 30 to 45 mph with gusts up to 65 mph
  expected. The strongest winds will be tonight on the Tug Hill,
  and in downslope areas to the north of the Tug Hill and down the
  Black River Valley. 

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

Apffel
3 follow-up statements
361 
WWUS71 KBUF 222337
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
637 PM EST Thu Dec 22 2022

NYZ006>008-230900-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.W.0004.221223T0000Z-221223T1800Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
637 PM EST Thu Dec 22 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 65 mph 
  expected. The strongest winds will be tonight on the Tug Hill, 
  and in downslope areas to the north of the Tug Hill and down the
  Black River Valley.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

Hitchcock
616 
WWUS71 KBUF 230722
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
222 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2022

NYZ006>008-231530-
/O.CON.KBUF.HW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-221223T1800Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
222 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph
  expected. The strongest winds will be through early this morning on
  the Tug Hill, and in downslope areas to the north of the Tug 
  Hill and down the Black River Valley.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...Until 1 PM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

Apffel
398 
WWUS71 KBUF 231122
NPWBUF

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
622 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2022

NYZ006>008-231230-
/O.CAN.KBUF.HW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-221223T1800Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
622 AM EST Fri Dec 23 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

This round of strongest winds have moved out of the area early 
this morning. Strong southwesterly winds will then ramp back up 
this afternoon behind an Arctic frontal passage. 

$$

JM

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this high wind warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this high wind warning went out at Dec 22, 1:54 AM EST, 2 hours 3 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 22, 1:54 AM EST, 2 hours 3 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
154 AM EST Thu Dec 22 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
An intense storm system will impact western and north central New
York from Thursday right through the Christmas weekend. Expect
precipitation to begin as rain or a brief mix of rain and snow in
some areas Thursday afternoon, before quickly changing to rain by
Thursday evening. Strong localized downslope winds will then impact
areas east of Lake Ontario Thursday night. A strong cold front
arrives Friday which will change precipitation rapidly over to snow
with increasingly widespread strong winds developing. Very strong
winds are expected to continue Friday night and Saturday with wind-
driven heavy lake effect snows northeast of the Lakes. Heavy lake
snows will last through at least Christmas Day, possibly
lingering into the first part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure over New England will gradually drift off the east
coast later tonight and Thursday. Lingering associated dry air and
subsidence will maintain dry weather tonight through Thursday
morning with gradually thickening and lowering clouds.

Quiet, uneventful weather ends later Thursday as surface high
pressure exits off into Quebec and the Canadian Maritimes. That
said...there are two features to keep an eye on. A mid-level
shortwave racing across Oklahoma this evening and then a larger more
potent shortwave dropping across the northern Plains. It will be
these two features that drive all the weather for the upcoming
event. As the southern stream shortwave races east...strengthening
southeasterly flow will begin to draw up plentiful Atlantic moisture
towards the area. Deep lift on the leading edge of a rapidly
strengthening +60 knot H850 LLJ and also favorable right entrance
region of the H250 jet will bring increasing chances for light
precipitation by Thursday afternoon and evening. With the now
anticipated later arrival time any snow will likely quickly
transition to just rain...if not beginning as rain. The only
exception will be east of Lake Ontario. There, we could see a mix of
rain and wet snow last into Thursday evening, especially across the
higher terrain of the Tug Hill and western foothills of the
Adirondacks.

...Strong to Damaging Downslope Winds Thursday night...

Strong cyclogenesis over the mid western states will result in a sfc
low tracking to Lower Michigan while deepening to 980mb-983mb by
daybreak Friday. Fairly widespread rain due to a coupled H25 jet
will initially be found over our region in the process...but as a
dry tongue in the mid levels works up across the region...that rain
should temporarily taper off for part of the night.

The larger concern for Thursday night will come from dangerously
strong downslope winds across the northern slopes of the Tug Hill
plateau. This as an impressive +75 kt low level jet passes directly
over the Eastern Lake Ontario region. Normally these winds within
warm advection would remain aloft above a pronounced inversion...but
in areas where the winds are perpendicular to sfc barriers (ie.
ridges/plateaus)...downsloping can transport the winds to the sfc.
This will likely be the case north-northeast of the Tug Hill
plateau...and in this case...to a lesser degree along the Chautauqua
ridge where there will be much lower wind speeds aloft. The strong
southeasterly flow will also be funneled down the Black River
valley...enhancing winds in that area as well. A High Wind Watch
remains in effect for winds that could gust to 65 mph.

A non-diurnal temperature trend can be expected Thursday night due
to the moderately strong warm advection found ahead of the
approaching cold front. Mercury readings that begin the night in the
upper 30s to lower 40s should climb at least several degrees through
the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
...Multi-faceted and HIGH IMPACT winter storm starts Friday and
lasts through much of Christmas weekend...

In the big picture, negative tilted trough aloft digging across the
northern Rockies and plains this afternoon on seen in the WV loop
sharply deepens as it crosses the Ohio Valley (12hr height falls to
40dam - very impressive indeed) by Friday morning. This will promote
sfc bombogenesis with sfc low along associated arctic front
deepening from around 1000mb at 00z Friday from Indiana to lower
Michigan down to 980mb (-20 mb in only 12hr) vcnty of Georgian Bay
to 965-970mb while crossing the Ottawa River Valley on Friday
evening. There are some differences in position of the sfc low,
though all still show similar depth, into Saturday and that results
in uncertainty in where heaviest lake effect snow ultimately sets up
Saturday into Sunday. Unlike the November lake effect storm
northeast of the lakes, this storm will be *very* different in that
it will likely be remembered for wind and impacts from it (possible
wind damage impacts and also winter impacts in terms of blowing
snow/drifting snow and at least localized blizzard conditions).
Diving into the details for this complex winter storm scenario...

Daybreak Friday, sharp Arctic front tied to the deepening low over
the central Great Lakes will be entering far western NY. There is a
quicker trend here, by at least a few hours. The front will quickly
make it to eastern Lake Ontario region by early afternoon. Along the
front, expect an abrupt change from rain to snow with intensity
increased due to frontogenesis along the front. A few inches of snow
could occur then conditions will worsen as temps free fall into the
teens and lower 20s by early afternoon and single digits west and
teens east by nightfall. Expect a rapid freeze of the snow and any
slush, leading to icy conditions. An even bigger note will be the
winds as strong cold air advection, southwest winds of 50-55 kts in
the mixed layer and an enhancing pressure rise/fall couplet will
produce wind gusts up to 60-65 mph over far western NY and 50+ mph
elsewhere. These winds, especially western NY, will have potential
to produce damage and will combine with increasing snow late in the
day to result in widespread blowing and drifting snow with localized
blizzard conditions. Winter storm watch continues for western NY and
wraps the high wind component into the overall hazard. Also have
just added Monroe into the watch as well. Winter storm watch also
continues for Jefferson and Lewis county though worst conditions
there will not develop until later in the day.

Moving into Friday night through Saturday morning, this is when the
worst conditions in terms of a combined hazard from heavy snow,
blowing snow, drifting snow and at least localized blizzard
conditions will occur. Travel will be very difficult, but more
likely impossible where the heaviest snow and strongest winds are
occurring concurrently. Winds look very strong on Friday night as a
very sharp and strong pressure gradient to the south of the power-
packed low to the northwest combine with wind fields in the mixed
layer that are even shown to exceed 70 kts at times from Buffalo to
Rochester on across Lake Ontario and pushing into the eastern Lake
Ontario region focused on the Thousand Islands. Winds of 40-45 mph
with gusts over 65 mph look likely in this corridor. This is the
period when wind damage will potentially be the highest and power
outages could become widespread. This is a real concern especially
with the cold temps expected for the holiday weekend.

A note about the coverage of snow Friday night into Saturday
morning. Given such strong winds, do not anticipate a classic
narrower plume of heavy lake enhanced snow for this time frame.
Instead a more widespread footprint to the moderate to heavy snow is
more likely as the strong winds will spray the heaviest snow around
and cause locations of heaviest snow to vary based on where
localized convergence occurs which will be hard to tell given such
strong winds. That and lower SLRs due to such strong winds
(dendrites will be shattered to pieces leaving a more fine snow
type) is not good news though as even where snow is not heavy, there
will be a more widespread impact with blowing, drifting snow leading
to whiteout conditions. The strong winds will also push the snow
into at least western Monroe county. In terms of estimates for snow
amounts, that will be challenging to measure as the snow will be
flying sideways, expecting 4-8 inches centered on Buffalo to Batavia
to the Northtowns and into Niagara county (Lake Erie) and over
northern Jefferson county Watertown to Thousand Islands. Once again
even outside of these areas, a few inches of snow will impact much
of western NY and the eastern Lake Ontario region.

A very tight sfc pressure gradient will remain in place across our
forecast area on the day before Christmas...so while the winds
should diminish as bit by way of a weaker LLJ especially later in
the day, they will still be strong enough to possibly cause issues
and certainly to support continued at least areas of blowing snow.
This is where the uncertainty increases in terms of location of
heaviest lake effect snow. This is due to models having different
positions of the sfc low. In short, some guidance is backed with
winds, keeping main focus Northtowns northward into Niagara County.
Other models are more veered with winds, pushing snow as far south
as southern Erie county into Southern Tier. Others including
Canadian are centered on Erie county. That is where this forecast
lands, though could see a northward adjustment needed especially on
Saturday.

This uncertainty in location will be increasing issue as another
trend that is noted is an increasingly *very* favorable setup for
heavy lake effect snow as soundings show majority of lake convective
layer and lift within co-located within the heart of the DGZ. So,
unlike the lower SLRs we will see Friday night into early Saturday
due to fracturing dendrites, some very efficient (fluffy) snowfall
is expected later Saturday into Saturday night and into Christmas
Day as well with SLRs likely over 20:1. Thus, the snow could pile up
very quickly with snowfall rates by this time increasing markedly
compared to what occurs Friday night. Will be something to consider
as we move through the weekend. Even though winds will diminish
later Saturday into Saturday night compared to Friday night into
Saturday, there will still be considerable blowing and drifting
especially in open areas.

It will be quite cold with Saturdays highs ranging from the single
digits over the Srn Tier to the teens and low 20s elsewhere
resulting wind chills falling to as low as 10 to 20 degrees below
zero. Again, this is why any power outages that last for longer
period of time could have bigger impact.

Christmas Day promises to remain cold with highs only in the
teens to low 20s and winds to 30 mph generating wind chills of 10
below to just a few degrees abv zero. A 240-250 flow will keep the
lake snows most focused near and just south of the Buffalo and
Watertown areas. Decent agreement on this and the higher SLRs
described above will continue through this time as well so we should
continue to see several inches of snow through this time. Note
specific snow amounts for later in the weekend will come into better
view as we get into the next couple days.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Lake effect snow will be ongoing off both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario
Monday morning. Lake band orientation probably not too different
than Sunday and Sunday night, with the bulk of the lake snow near
and just south of the Buffalo and Watertown areas. Intensity of the
lake bands a bit uncertain with increasing shear as surface ridging
sliding to our south starts to build in.

Environment becoming increasingly less favorable for lake effect
Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure to our south slides to the east
allowing a warmer return flow to set up. This will bring an end to
our lake effect snow, with less frigid conditions expected by mid
week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Dry weather will prevail through the remainder of the overnight
through Thursday morning with a gradual thickening and lowering of
the mid level deck. The one exception will be northeast of Lake
Ontario near KART where a band of lake effect clouds swinging north
may produce a brief period of MVFR ceilings sometime during early
overnight hours as it swings through. Otherwise, a rapidly
strengthening mid level trough and surface low will take shape
across the mid section of the nation Thursday. Increasing
S'erly/SE'erly flow ahead of the system will transport deep moisture
into NY Thursday afternoon, with increasing chances of rain from
south to north. The rain may briefly mix with some wet snow at the
onset, especially across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario.

Ceilings will deteriorate to MVFR early to mid afternoon Thursday
across the higher terrain of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes,
with IFR becoming likely by late afternoon/early evening.
Southeasterly downslope winds will initially help to keep ceilings
up across the lake plains, but even here expect MVFR by late
afternoon or early evening. Ceilings will deteriorate to MVFR by
late afternoon east of Lake Ontario, with IFR across the higher
terrain. Visibility will drop to MVFR in areas of steadier rain
later in the day. There will also be a strengthening SE'erly breeze
Thursday afternoon into the evening with gusts ramping up into the
20-30 knot range.

Outlook...

Friday...Rain changes to snow. IFR/LIFR. LLWS likely before surface
winds increase. Windy by afternoon with severe blowing and drifting
snow developing.

Saturday...Very windy with snow and severe blowing and drifting
snow. IFR/LIFR flight conditions in bands of lake effect snow to the
northeast and east of the lakes.

Sunday...Localized IFR/LIFR flight conditions in bands of lake
effect snow to the northeast and east of the lakes.

Monday...Localized IFR/LIFR within lake effect snow east of the
lakes.

&&

.MARINE...
Southeast winds will increase Thursday, then increase further
Thursday night as a rapidly deepening low approaches from the
southwest, especially across central and eastern Lake Ontario.

A strong and wide-reaching storm will bring very strong winds across
the Great Lakes Friday into the weekend. There will be high end
gales with frequent storm force gusts, or possibly even outright
storm force sustained winds, for which a Storm Warning for Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario remain in effect as outlined below. Wave heights
may exceed 20 feet on both Lakes during this time. The strong winds
and plunging temperatures which will also pose a potential heavy
freezing spray hazard for Friday afternoon through the first part of
Sunday. Thus, a Heavy Freezing Spray Warning remains in effect
for Lake Erie, and Lake Ontario will likely need to be added
as well.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Very strong winds behind the cold front Friday will produce a
SIGNIFICANT seiche event on Lake Erie which could rival some of the
highest lake levels ever experienced. Sustained winds to at least 40
knots with frequent gusts to storm force in the central and eastern
basin should push the lake level well above flood stage at Buffalo.

At this time range, it is hard to pinpoint exact timing and peak
lake levels, but it appears that the seiche should peak somewhere in
the midday Friday into Friday night time frame, with the potential
for lakeshore flooding continuing into Saturday. Peak lake levels
exceeding 11 feet above low water datum are certainly possible. The
highest on record for Buffalo is 12.08 feet on 12/2/1985. The two
most recent highest events at Buffalo were 11.12 feet on 11/15/2020
and 10.6 feet on 11/1/2019. Lake levels this high could result in
significant lakeshore flooding along the Lake Erie shore, including
Canalside and Route 5 in Hamburg.

Flooding is also possible along the Niagara River. The elevated
Lake Erie water results in more water flowing down the Niagara
River, which can cause flooding along the riverside in locations
such as Cayuga Island in the city of Niagara Falls.

Very strong southwest gales to 40-45 knots with storm force gusts
will also bring the potential for lakeshore flooding and shoreline
erosion to the eastern end of Lake Ontario Friday afternoon through
Sunday morning. Lake levels are below normal, which will lower the
potential for lakeshore flooding, but with onshore winds this strong
along with expected considerable wave action the threat is a bit
more elevated for this event.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Lakeshore Flood Warning from 7 AM Friday to 7 PM EST Saturday
     for NYZ001-010-019-085.
     Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Monday morning
     for NYZ001>003-010>012-019-020-085.
     High Wind Watch from this evening through Friday evening for
     NYZ006>008.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning from 1 PM Friday to 7 AM EST Sunday
     for NYZ006-007.
     Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Monday
     evening for NYZ007-008.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 7 AM Friday to 7 PM EST Saturday for LEZ020.
         Storm Warning from 7 AM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday for
         LEZ040-041.
         Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 1 PM Friday to 4 PM EST
         Sunday for LEZ040-041.
         Gale Warning from 7 AM Friday to 7 PM EST Saturday
         for LOZ030.
         Storm Warning from 1 PM Friday to 7 PM EST Saturday for
         LOZ042>045-062>065.
         Gale Warning from 1 PM Friday to 7 PM EST Saturday
         for SLZ022-024.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AR/JM
NEAR TERM...AR/Hitchcock/JM/RSH
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...Hitchcock/JM
MARINE...AR/JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...TMA
Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 21, 3:02 PM EST, 12 hours 55 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
302 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

NYZ001-010-019-085-222015-
Niagara-Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
302 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lakeshore Flood Warning.
   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ002-011-012-020-222015-
Orleans-Genesee-Wyoming-Cattaraugus-
302 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004-005-013-014-021-222015-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-
302 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Expect a warmup with widespread rain Thursday and Thursday
night...followed by sharply colder conditions and a flash freeze
Friday along with a changeover back to snow Friday.

There will also be potentially strong winds over 50 mph at times
Friday into Saturday. The strong winds combined with lake effect
snow extending well inland off Lake Erie could lead to considerable
blowing snow and reduced visibility.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ003-222015-
Monroe-
302 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

Expect a warmup with widespread rain Thursday and Thursday
night...followed by sharply colder conditions and a flash freeze
Friday along with a changeover back to snow Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006-222015-
Oswego-
302 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST
SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Watch.
   Lakeshore Flood Warning.

Expect a warmup with widespread rain late Thursday into the first
part of Friday. The warmup and rain along with melting snow could
result in minor flooding.

The rain will be followed by sharply colder conditions later Friday
with a flash freeze along with a changeover back to snow later
Friday and Friday evening. Potentially strong winds will then follow
for Friday night and Saturday. Potentially significant lake effect
snow is also expected to develop during the weekend...although the
highest chance for the significant lake snows will be over far
northern Oswego county and across the Tug Hill.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-222015-
Jefferson-
302 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST
SUNDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Watch.
   Lakeshore Flood Warning.
   Winter Storm Watch.

Additionally, expect a warmup and widespread rain late Thursday into
the first part of Friday. The warmup and rain along with melting
snow could result in minor flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ008-222015-
Lewis-
302 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Watch.
   Winter Storm Watch.

Additionally, expect a warmup and widespread rain late Thursday into
the first part of Friday. The warmup and rain along with melting
snow could result in minor flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-LOZ030-222015-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
302 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

SLZ022-024-222015-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
302 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ042>045-062>065-222015-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
302 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-222015-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
302 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 4 PM
EST SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Storm Warning.
   Heavy Freezing Spray Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 22, 3:54 AM ESTBlizzard WarningBUFChautauqua, Erie, Genesee, Jefferson, Niagara, Orleans3 days
Dec 22, 3:54 AM ESTWinter Storm WarningBUFCattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Genesee, Jefferson, Lewis and 3 more5 days
Dec 22, 3:54 AM ESTWinter Weather AdvisoryBUFAllegany, Cayuga, Livingston, Monroe, Niagara, Ontario and 3 more3 days

Nearby

High Wind Warnings in New York, 2022Every high wind warning in 2022

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.