Alert archive / New York / Flood Watches in 2022
Flood Watch 4, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this flood watch at Sep 25, 2022, 2:36 PM EDT for 5 counties in New York. It took effect at Sep 26, 2022, 4:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 48 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 25, 2022, 2:36 PM EDT (18:36 UTC)
- In effect from
- Sep 26, 2022, 4:00 AM EDT
- Expired
- Sep 28, 2022, 3:55 AM EDT
- In force
- 48 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
- Flood severity
- None
Counties Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Oswego County, NY
The radar
The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 131 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 6.6 hours before the alert went out and 129 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 3 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -56 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 671 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 39 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 41 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 83 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
176
WGUS61 KBUF 251836
FFABUF
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
236 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022
NYZ010-019-085-260245-
/O.NEW.KBUF.FA.A.0004.220926T0800Z-220928T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Buffalo, Orchard Park, Jamestown, and
Springville
236 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
* WHERE...A portion of western New York, including the following
counties, Chautauqua, Northern Erie and Southern Erie. The
heaviest rainfall will likely fall close to the Lake Erie shore.
* WHEN...From late tonight through late Tuesday night.
* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Periods of heavy lake effect rain late tonight through late
Tuesday night may result in flooding. Rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches with locally higher amounts are possible where
lake effect rain is most persistent.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.
&&
$$
Hitchcock10 follow-up statements
048
WGUS61 KBUF 252357
FFABUF
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
757 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022
NYZ010-019-085-260900-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0004.220926T0800Z-220928T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Buffalo, Jamestown, Orchard Park, and
Springville
757 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
possible.
* WHERE...A portion of western New York, including the following
counties, Chautauqua, Northern Erie and Southern Erie.
* WHEN...From 4 AM EDT Monday through late Tuesday night.
* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Periods of heavy lake effect rain late tonight through late
Tuesday night may result in flooding. Rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches with locally higher amounts are possible where
lake effect rain is most persistent.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.
&&
$$
JLA789
WGUS61 KBUF 260852
FFABUF
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
452 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022
NYZ010-019-085-261700-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-220928T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Springville, Jamestown, Buffalo, and Orchard
Park
452 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
possible.
* WHERE...A portion of western New York, including the following
counties, Chautauqua, Northern Erie and Southern Erie.
* WHEN...Through late Tuesday night.
* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Periods of heavy lake effect rain today through late Tuesday
night may result in flooding. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4
inches with locally higher amounts are possible where lake
effect rain is most persistent. The heaviest rainfall is
expected to be focused along and near the Lake Erie shore.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.
&&
$$
TMA626
WGUS61 KBUF 261406
FFABUF
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1006 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022
NYZ010-019-085-262215-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-220928T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Buffalo, Springville, and Orchard
Park
1006 AM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
possible.
* WHERE...A portion of western New York, including the following
counties, Chautauqua, Northern Erie and Southern Erie.
* WHEN...Through late Tuesday night.
* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Periods of heavy lake effect rain today through late Tuesday
night may result in flooding. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4
inches with locally higher amounts are possible where lake
effect rain is most persistent. The heaviest rainfall is
expected to be focused along and near the Lake Erie shore.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.
&&
$$
Hitchcock657
WGUS61 KBUF 261845
FFABUF
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
245 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022
NYZ006>008-270245-
/O.EXB.KBUF.FA.A.0004.220927T0500Z-220928T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
245 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.
* WHERE...A portion of central New York, including the following
counties, Jefferson, western Lewis and northern Oswego.
* WHEN...From 1 AM EDT Tuesday through late Tuesday night.
* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Periods of heavy lake effect rain and thunderstorms tonight
through late Tuesday night may result in flooding. Rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts are
possible where lake effect rain is most persistent. The
heaviest rain is expected to be focused from the Lake Ontario
shore to the western slopes of the Tug Hill Plateau.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.
&&
$$
NYZ010-019-085-270245-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-220928T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Buffalo, Springville, and Orchard
Park
245 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
possible.
* WHERE...A portion of western New York, including the following
counties, Chautauqua, Northern Erie and Southern Erie.
* WHEN...Through late Tuesday night.
* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Periods of heavy lake effect rain this afternoon through late
Tuesday night may result in flooding. Rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches with locally higher amounts are possible where
lake effect rain is most persistent. The heaviest rainfall is
expected to be focused along and near the Lake Erie shore.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.
&&
$$
Hitchcock523
WGUS61 KBUF 270003
FFABUF
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
803 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022
NYZ010-019-085-270900-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-220928T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Orchard Park, Springville, and
Buffalo
803 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
possible.
* WHERE...A portion of western New York, including the following
counties, Chautauqua, Northern Erie and Southern Erie.
* WHEN...Through late Tuesday night.
* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Periods of heavy lake effect rain through late Tuesday night
may result in flooding. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches
with locally higher amounts are possible where lake effect
rain is most persistent. The heaviest rainfall is expected to
be focused along and near the Lake Erie shore.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.
&&
$$
NYZ006>008-270900-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0004.220927T0500Z-220928T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown, Lowville, and Oswego
803 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM EDT TUESDAY THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
possible.
* WHERE...A portion of central New York, including the following
counties, Jefferson, Lewis and Oswego.
* WHEN...From 1 AM EDT Tuesday through late Tuesday night.
* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Periods of heavy lake effect rain and thunderstorms through
late Tuesday night may result in flooding. Rainfall amounts
of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts are possible
where lake effect rain is most persistent. The heaviest rain
is expected to be focused from the Lake Ontario shore to the
western slopes of the Tug Hill Plateau.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.
&&
$$
JLA344
WGUS61 KBUF 270829
FFABUF
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
429 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022
NYZ010-019-085-271630-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-220928T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Springville, Orchard Park, Jamestown, and
Buffalo
429 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
possible.
* WHERE...A portion of western New York, including the following
counties, Chautauqua, Northern Erie and Southern Erie.
* WHEN...Through late tonight.
* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Periods of heavy lake effect rain through tonight may result
in flooding. Additional rainfall amounts of around one inch
with locally higher amounts are possible where lake effect
rain is most persistent. The heaviest rainfall is expected to
be focused along and near the Lake Erie shore.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.
&&
$$
NYZ006>008-271630-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-220928T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown, Oswego, and Lowville
429 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
possible.
* WHERE...A portion of central New York, including the following
counties, Jefferson, Lewis and Oswego.
* WHEN...Through late tonight.
* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Periods of heavy lake effect rain and possible thunderstorms
through tonight may result in flooding. Rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches with locally higher amounts are possible where
lake effect rain is most persistent. The heaviest rain is
expected to be focused from the Lake Ontario shore to the
western slopes of the Tug Hill Plateau.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.
&&
$$
TMA599
WGUS61 KBUF 271356
FFABUF
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
956 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022
NYZ010-271500-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-220928T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Erie-
Including the cities of Buffalo
956 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022
...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...
The Flood Watch is cancelled for a portion of western New York,
including the following area, Northern Erie.
Most of the heavy lake effect rain off Lake Erie is expected to
remain south of the area through tonight. Therefore, the Flood Watch
is being cancelled.
$$
NYZ019-085-272200-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-220928T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Orchard Park, Springville, and Jamestown
956 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
possible.
* WHERE...A portion of western New York, including the following
counties, Chautauqua and Southern Erie.
* WHEN...Through late tonight.
* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Periods of heavy lake effect rain through tonight may result
in flooding. Additional rainfall amounts of around one inch
with locally higher amounts are possible where lake effect
rain is most persistent. The heaviest rainfall is expected to
be focused along and near the Lake Erie shore.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.
&&
$$
NYZ006>008-272200-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-220928T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Lowville, Watertown, and Oswego
956 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
possible.
* WHERE...A portion of central New York, including the following
counties, Jefferson, Lewis and Oswego.
* WHEN...Through late tonight.
* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Periods of heavy lake effect rain and possible thunderstorms
through tonight may result in flooding. Additional rainfall
amounts of 2 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts are
possible where lake effect rain is most persistent. The
heaviest rain is expected to be focused from the Lake Ontario
shore to the western slopes of the Tug Hill Plateau.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.
&&
$$
Hitchcock479
WGUS61 KBUF 271829
FFABUF
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
229 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022
NYZ019-085-280230-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-220928T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Orchard Park, Springville, and Jamestown
229 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
possible.
* WHERE...A portion of western New York, including the following
counties, Chautauqua and Southern Erie.
* WHEN...Through late tonight.
* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Periods of moderate to heavy lake effect rain through tonight
may result in flooding. Additional rainfall amounts of a half
an inch to an inch with locally higher amounts are possible
where lake effect rain is most persistent. The heaviest
rainfall is expected to be focused along and near the Lake
Erie shore and along the Chautauqua Ridge and Boston Hills.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.
&&
$$
NYZ006>008-280230-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-220928T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Lowville, Watertown, and Oswego
229 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
possible.
* WHERE...A portion of central New York, including the following
counties, Jefferson, Lewis and Oswego.
* WHEN...Through late tonight.
* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Periods of heavy lake effect rain and possible thunderstorms
through tonight may result in flooding. Additional rainfall
amounts of 2 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts are
possible where lake effect rain is most persistent. The
heaviest rain is expected to be focused from the Lake Ontario
shore to the western slopes of the Tug Hill Plateau.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.
&&
$$
Hitchcock701
WGUS61 KBUF 280005
FFABUF
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
805 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022
NYZ019-085-280900-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-220928T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville
805 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
possible.
* WHERE...A portion of western New York, including the following
counties, Chautauqua and Southern Erie.
* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Wednesday.
* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Periods of moderate to heavy lake effect rain through tonight
may result in flooding. Additional rainfall amounts of a half
an inch to an inch with locally higher amounts are possible
where lake effect rain is most persistent. The heaviest
rainfall is expected to be focused along and near the Lake
Erie shore and along the Chautauqua Ridge and Boston Hills.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.
&&
$$
NYZ006>008-280900-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-220928T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Watertown, Lowville, and Oswego
805 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022
...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
possible.
* WHERE...A portion of central New York, including the following
counties, Jefferson, Lewis and Oswego.
* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Wednesday.
* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- Periods of heavy lake effect rain and possible thunderstorms
through tonight may result in flooding. Additional rainfall
amounts of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts are
possible where lake effect rain is most persistent. The
heaviest rain is expected to be focused from the Lake Ontario
shore to the western slopes of the Tug Hill Plateau.
- http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.
&&
$$
RSH847 WGUS61 KBUF 280755 FFABUF Flood Watch National Weather Service Buffalo NY 355 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 NYZ006>008-019-085-280900- /O.CAN.KBUF.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-220928T0900Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Chautauqua-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Springville, Jamestown, Orchard Park, Lowville, Watertown, and Oswego 355 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022 ...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED... The Flood Watch is cancelled for portions of central New York and western New York, including the following areas, in central New York, Jefferson, Lewis and Oswego. In western New York, Chautauqua and Southern Erie. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures. $$ TMA
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flood watch went out at Sep 25, 1:17 PM EDT, 1 hour 19 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Sep 25, 1:17 PM EDT, 1 hour 19 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 117 PM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A very wet pattern will continue through midweek as low pressure lingers for several days across southern Ontario and Quebec. This will bring periods of showers areawide and heavy lake effect rain at times east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario with localized flooding possible. High pressure will finally build into the Great Lakes Thursday with a return to dry weather for late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... ...SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT RAIN WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE EAST OF LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO... A deep longwave trough will become established across the Great Lakes tonight through Monday, with a mid level closed low developing near Georgian Bay. An east-west elongated surface low will consolidate near Georgian Bay tonight, then drift east across southern Ontario on Monday. 850MB temps will gradually drop to +5C by Monday, and a pool of cool 700MB temperatures and deep moisture will combine with warm lake temperatures to produce strong and deep lake induced instability, with lake induced equilibrium levels around 30K feet through the period. The heaviest rain amounts in these strongly unstable early season lake effect rain events tend to be right along the lakeshore as opposed to extending well inland. From a synoptic standpoint, the first area of rain associated with warm advection and moisture transport ahead of the system will continue to cross the eastern Lake Ontario region this afternoon and exit the area this evening. Tonight through Monday, DPVA and height falls ahead of the digging longwave trough will support occasional showers at times. The main story will be lake effect potential, as outlined below... Off Lake Erie... The area of organized lake effect rain over and east of the lake early this afternoon will likely move east/inland and weaken through the rest of the afternoon as subsidence and shear temporarily increase behind a departing shortwave. Diurnal influences will also tend to break apart banding structure during the afternoon hours. Tonight through Monday a series of low amplitude shortwaves will move through the longwave trough. Each of these will enhance the Lake Erie lake effect, but also modulate intensity and location, making the fine details of the forecast difficult. The very strong and deep instability over the lake combined with passing shortwaves may keep the lake effect showers more convective and cellular in nature, but nonetheless capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. Expect lake effect rain to become better organized again later this evening, initially east of the lake across Chautauqua and southern Erie counties. An approaching shortwave will then back the boundary layer flow to the southwest by early Monday morning, with lake effect rain centering on the Buffalo Metro area. From late morning through Monday evening expect most of the heavier lake effect showers to hug the Lake Erie shore from Chautauqua County northeast to near Buffalo. Passing shortwaves will continue to modulate flow and convective depth, so expect lake effect rain organization and intensity to wax and wane numerous times through the period. Rain amounts will reach 1-2" with locally higher amounts near Lake Erie tonight through Monday evening, with additional rainfall after that as outlined in the short term section below. The risk for flooding will increase with each successive wave of rain as the ground saturates. Off Lake Ontario... The position of the mid level low is not as favorable for a robust lake response through Monday evening. There will be some lake enhancement east and northeast of the lake from later this afternoon through tonight, centering on the Tug Hill initially this evening and then drifting north into Jefferson County overnight. On Monday a digging shortwave upstream will back the boundary layer flow to SW or even SSW, shortening the effective fetch over the lake and pushing any lake effect rain north to the Saint Lawrence or even into Canada at times. The shortened fetch and less favorable climatological position of the mid level low will reduce the chance of heavy lake effect rain through Monday evening east of Lake Ontario. This will change by Tuesday, more on that in the short term section below. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Monday night and Tuesday, the stacked low heads northeast into southern Quebec. More of a lake component to the overall precipitation pattern (although there still will be showers inland) should be realized during this period, as better over- lake instability develops given the continued cooling aloft being sent down on the backside of the low. A general west- southwest flow Monday night will eventually veer more westerly Tuesday sending the focus for heavier rain (along with thunder/lightning) to east of the lakes. This will especially be the case east of Lake Ontario where significant rain rates could occur. Total rainfall amounts during this period could be as heavy as 1.5-2.5". If these amounts are realized localized flooding would certainly be a possibility and will need to be monitored. Secondary cold front crosses the region first half of Tuesday night. This will likely take the ongoing lake bands and push them onshore south of both lakes just ahead of it. There will be a brief lull behind the boundary before lake effect activity then gets going again overnight, this time to the south and southeast of both lakes on a NNW/NW flow. This will lead to a multi-band setup with more of a "spray" of lake effect rain showers. However, if and where a Lake Huron/Georgian Bay connection can become established, expect some better focused lake effect rains. Expect enhanced upslope flow along N and NW slopes as well. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Thursday we will still be under cool cyclonic flow as the upper level trough exits out over Atlantic Canada. Meanwhile in the lower levels surface high pressure will be building in from the west. We could still see lake clouds...and an isolated rain shower south of Lake Ontario early Thursday before drier air from the west wins out and skies begin to clear. Clear skies Thursday night will allow for another cool night with overnight lows in the mid 30s...to lower 40s near the lakes. Inland frost is quite the possibility with light winds. This surface high will bring fair weather Friday...and possibly into the start of next weekend. The forecast for next weekend will heavily depend upon the track and timing of tropical system Ian...which will move into an area of weak riding aloft over the Northeast. Thus still a bit of uncertainty to any direct impacts to our region. && .AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Low pressure will move very slowly east across southern Ontario and Quebec through the first part of the week. This will bring an extended period of unsettled weather and flight restrictions to the eastern Great Lakes. The low and associated mid level trough will produce occasional showers across the region. Cool air aloft will support areas of lake effect rain over and east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario at times through Monday and beyond. Widespread stratus and stratocumulus will produce areas of MVFR CIGS at lower elevations and IFR higher terrain this afternoon through Monday morning. CIGS will improve somewhat Monday afternoon with mainly VFR lower elevations and MVFR higher terrain and in bands of lake effect rain. Heavier showers in lake effect areas will bring MVFR/IFR VSBY at times. Outlook... Monday night through Tuesday night...Areas of MVFR with local IFR. Occasional showers and lake effect rain. Wednesday...Areas of MVFR with scattered showers and lake effect showers. Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Increasing southwest winds will bring very choppy conditions to Lake Erie this afternoon and evening. Low pressure will move slowly east across southern Ontario and Quebec tonight through Tuesday, setting the stage for an extended period of Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario tonight through at least Tuesday night with WSW winds in the 15-25 knot range, with higher gusts. Cool air aloft and favorable conditions for lake effect rain will continue to produce a chance of waterspouts through Wednesday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for LEZ040-041. && SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock NEAR TERM...Hitchcock SHORT TERM...JM/TMA LONG TERM...Thomas AVIATION...Hitchcock MARINE...Hitchcock
Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 25, 5:55 AM EDT, 8 hours 41 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Buffalo NY 555 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022 NYZ001>005-011>014-020-021-261000- Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Genesee-Wyoming- Livingston-Ontario-Cattaraugus-Allegany- 555 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ010-085-261000- Northern Erie-Southern Erie- 555 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. An area of low pressure will track across the region today through the first half of the week. Showers from both the area of low pressure, along with lake enhanced/effect processes, are expected to be moderate to heavy at times today and tonight. Rainfall amounts of an inch or more is expected for some areas near Lake Erie through tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Lake effect rain is expected to continue through Tuesday night, adding to saturated ground conditions. Localized poor drainage, and low lying area flooding will be possible during this time. Additional rainfall amounts of one to three inches will be possible through Tuesday night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ019-261000- Chautauqua- 555 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. An area of low pressure will track across the region today through the first half of the week. Showers from both the area of low pressure, along with lake enhanced/effect processes, are expected to be moderate to heavy at times today and tonight. Rainfall amounts up to two inches are possible through tonight for the higher terrain near Lake Erie, such as the Chautauqua Ridge. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Lake effect rain is expected to continue through Tuesday night, adding to saturated ground conditions. Localized poor drainage, and low lying area flooding will be possible during this time. Additional rainfall amounts of two to four inches will be possible through Tuesday night, especially over the higher terrain near Lake Erie. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ006>008-261000- Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- 555 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. An area of low pressure will track across the region today through the first half of the week. Showers from both the area of low pressure, along with lake enhanced/effect processes, are expected to be moderate to heavy at times today and tonight. Rainfall amounts of around an inch is expected. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Lake effect rain showers are expected to continue through Tuesday night, adding to saturated ground conditions. Localized poor drainage, and low lying area flooding will be possible during this time. Additional rainfall amounts of two to four inches will be possible through Tuesday night for all of Jefferson County, and the Tug Hill portion of Lewis and Oswego counties. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ020-LOZ030-SLZ022-024-261000- Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River- Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg- Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis- 555 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake Ontario and Saint Lawrence River. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-261000- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 555 AM EDT Sun Sep 25 2022 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Waterspouts are possible today and tonight on Lake Ontario and Lake Erie. Waterspouts are most likely in and near bands of lake effect showers. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Waterspouts are possible Monday through Tuesday night on Lake Ontario and Lake Erie. Waterspouts are most likely in and near bands of lake effect showers. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf
The office that day
Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 1:28 PM EDT | Small Craft Advisory | BUF | 72 hr | |
| Sep 25, 4:18 PM EDT | Beach Hazards Statement | BUF | Cayuga, Chautauqua, Erie, Jefferson, Niagara, Orleans and 1 more | 60 hr |
| Sep 25, 5:00 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | BUF | Erie | 30 min |
| Sep 25, 6:55 PM EDT | Special Marine Warning | BUF | 65 min | |
| Sep 25, 7:31 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | BUF | Erie | 44 min |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.